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crimsone

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Everything posted by crimsone

  1. crimsone
    Larger than the state of Ohio, and then some.
  2. crimsone
    Assuming an implicit reference to climate change there... People don't grok the exponential function. What might have been thought of as the 'storms of our grandchildren' were never going to be so. They were always going to be ours.
  3. crimsone
    GORGEOUS 3D doppler image here...
  4. crimsone
    Sorry for the spoiler, but Irma wins.
  5. crimsone
    I posted out a warning on twitter a couple of days ago to get a plan in place, just as the models started converging on a path up the middle of Florida. Few people took any notice.
  6. crimsone
    True... but it's also like speed in a car. Every extra mph you travel at beyond a certain level requires an exponential increase in horsepower to achieve. That's essentially the reason than landfalling Category 5 hurricanes are quite uncommon.
  7. crimsone
    I kinda feel guilty watching this thing develop and knowing what it's going to do... ... and knowing, as well, that its greatest relevance to me can be basically summed up as "every extra kt it develops is basically an extra bucket of water on my house in a few weeks time".
  8. crimsone
    Indeed. By that measure, the only definition there could reasonably be for Cat 6 would be "Everything under the path of the hurricane will be wiped bare - stripped back to the subsoil in which its foundations once stood." That'd require one hell of a record hurricane to achieve.
  9. crimsone
    That is a perpetually recurring question. Simpson says no. His point is that the scale is calibrated to communicate the destructive power of a hurricane, with 5 being the worst case. His point is valid.
  10. crimsone
    Possibly... though I suspect land interactions will be a weakening factor, and that pocket of higher SSTs will merely maintain her instead. Time shall tell... foreboding, deadly, deadly time.
  11. crimsone
    Not really seeing much by the way of "super" warm waters in the Gulf at the moment. There's a couple of small patches here and there with 30-32 degree SSTs (including one just south of Florida), but the charts currently say it's mostly in the 28-30 degree range. http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm
  12. crimsone
    No... that's still Wilma in 2005, at 882 mb Or Allen, in 1980, with 190 mph sustained winds... ... depending on which way you want top look at strength. Still - Irma definitely has potential at this point.
  13. crimsone
    Fair point. Well... ... bloody hell.
  14. crimsone
    ... despite GFS registering her has hyper-intense?
  15. crimsone
    I fancied it took a step north just beforehand. Just a wobble, I think. They happen.
  16. crimsone
    Might just about escape the very worst of it then. Maybe. Doesn't look good. (Times = AST = BST-5)
  17. crimsone
    I don't expect that camera to be operational come 7am Weds (BST), if that Island is where I think it is. I'm not convinced those houses will look the same after, either.
  18. crimsone
    I am quite considerably concerned that the sharp northward turn of this hurricane in the models is likely to cause many ordinary folk to disbelieve any forecast of it hitting Florida directly. I mean, forget that you know anything about weather or climate for a moment, and look at Irmas path and forecast path. Does that Nward turn not seem a little odd if you don't have the context to explain it?
  19. crimsone
    latest recon... 000 URNT12 KNHC 042343 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 04/23:23:40Z B. 16 deg 42 min N 054 deg 57 min W C. 700 mb 2594 m D. 104 kt E. 195 deg 12 nm F. 285 deg 99 kt G. 197 deg 14 nm H. 944 mb I. 11 C / 3051 m J. 16 C / 3050 m K. 10 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C30 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 0611A IRMA OB 04 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 135 KT 033 / 15 NM 23:29:40Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 125 / 12 KT ;
  20. crimsone
    Still feeling like the GFS underestimates the shredding effect of the Cuban mountains... though there is a patch of lower ranges in the middle of the island that aren't quite as "bad".
  21. crimsone
    OK... Something pretty odd is going on with this eye. 000 URNT12 KNHC 041712 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 04/16:52:20Z B. 16 deg 43 min N 053 deg 43 min W C. 700 mb 2621 m D. 92 kt E. 310 deg 17 nm F. 034 deg 102 kt G. 305 deg 25 nm H. 946 mb I. 9 C / 3049 m J. 16 C / 3043 m K. 12 C / NA L. CLOSED M. CO26-32 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF309 0311A IRMA OB 07 MAX FL WIND 102 KT 305 / 25 NM 16:44:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 16 KT ;
  22. crimsone
    (just some randomer I found on Twitter with an interesting image. No comment on the views of the account holder here!) I note that the average remains pretty constant at the moment. I'm also wondering how much each model weights the initial movement vector, because differences in that could explain quite a lot. On the other hand, it could just be different assessments of the characteristics of that Rossby Wave Train.
  23. crimsone
    Can that even happen? Seems to me to defy physics. Surely more likely that it's just a difference in measurement due to direction/incomplete eyewall?
  24. crimsone
    Outer eyeway now 5 miles wider. Obviously flew through in a different direction this time. It's that, or she's expanding outwards from the center. I know which I'd put my money on... 13:13z - M. CO15-35
  25. crimsone
    From the model runs I've seen, Jose looks like it'll be a fish spinner.
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