crimsone

For a moment I thought that a dot on the facebook livestream map over Barbuda might be a sign of life. Alas, it's ABC news streaming a radar image

Brett Fetterolf, the poor sod, is still updating... ... but the stress is only going up, and the building is only getting more unstable. I am deeply concerned for his life. As, I suspect, is he. His is probably the one livestream I approve of; trapped in the strongest building you can find, and potentially facing the end of your life having never expected it'd get so bad, what else to do but communicate with the world?

Getting a bit disturbed by the fact that places with facebook livestreams that then see the eye tend not to have facebook live streams afterwards. Doubley so, because some pretty bloody strong webcams aren't surviving the first pass of the wall, though that could be down to power as much as the cams. Tripley so because even if you survive the first pass of the eyewall and get into the eye, the wind then blows in the other direction against a weakened structure. I desperately want to see the aftermath in one of these islands, just to know one way or the other.

Nope... can't find that one. It's not a direct link to the stream, and isn't showing on the map for me.

"I'm going to conserve battery life. I'll check in in about 2 hours, but don't worry, I WILL stay safe" If he doesn't check in, I'll guess he was wrong

Oh crap.

It's dead. You can see that the same footage is repeating for each refresh if you look closely. This is how livestreams die.

I have a pretty ill feeling that Barbuda is gone. I don't see how what I've just seen is in anyway survivable, except maybe in well-built underground bunkers/tornado shelters.

NOAA9 appears to have lost its mind.

Another dropsonde just found 917mb. Flying into the eye, the hunter picked up surface winds of 160kt, with 129 on the way back out.

Latest vortex message (22:45z) gives a pressure of 917mb, and reports concentric eyewalls at 20 and 45 miles. HDObs from 15 mins ago extrapolate a surface pressure of 913.1mb

Just a little perspective on intensification from the last/latest recon mission...

They just got a dropsonde reading of 926mb

The've just recorded a legitimate (non-suspect observation) 160kt surface wind in the NE eye.

You probably don't have to hope very hard for that. I mean, there's always a ~chance~, but in this case it's pretty small.

From the first NHC discussion... (they reckon 90kt by day 5) With no history on the center location, the motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 11 kt. Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high. In about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high. The model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the official forecast is based upon a blend of the ECMWF-GFS-UKMET deterministic and ensemble model output. The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to its west.

So, Jose just formed hot on the tail of Irma. This was predicted by a bunch of models, many of which have seen it recurve back into the atlantic. 000 WTNT22 KNHC 051454 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF JOSE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 39.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 39.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 38.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.8N 40.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.4N 43.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.9N 46.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.4N 49.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 39.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

Extrapolated how?

Checked the archive. 15:19:30Z - extrapolated surface pressure of 923.6 mb

Somewhere around there, yes. Sorry - think I had a bit of a brain fart while typing. Data has moved on since.

down to 924.1 mb (extrapolated) with 150 kt surface winds. Sonde measured 927 mb.

It's a record!!!! *waits for edit*

Still wanna see! Sad I missed it.

St Barth - Port de Gustavia Wind already picking up.

History is being made right now. Here's some sound advice for anybody who even *might* be an ant in the path of this giant.