crimsone

That's some mighty RI in that model!

000 WFUS52 KMFL 091323 TORMFL FLC086-087-091415- /O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0017.170909T1323Z-170909T1415Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Miami FL 923 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017 The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Mainland Monroe County in southwestern Florida... West central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida... * Until 1015 AM EDT * At 923 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles northwest of Homestead General Airport, moving west at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Shark Valley Obs Tower around 935 AM EDT. Big Cypress National Preserve around 950 AM EDT. Loop Road Ee Center around 955 AM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2564 8054 2555 8056 2551 8105 2577 8102 TIME...MOT...LOC 1323Z 098DEG 43KT 2561 8060 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ Gregoria

They just got tornado warning sirens as I was watching The Weather Channel. 8 mile nw of Homestead airport, moving west at 50 mph. Dangerous storm near Shark Valley.

There's something deeply foreboding about watching the terminator cross over Irma as day breaks. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=9646&y=10630&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

So, apparently it takes 2 weeks to take these cranes down... hence, they didn't. #Miami

Just on the off-chance that anyone in Florida is looking, and because it gives us on the forum a clearer idea of it, these are the evacuation zones in effect. http://floridadisaster.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=c788060028cb43809a25744ead39c0d6

So, apparently it's increasingly looking like Fort Myers gets the hit... not that that matters entirely. Hurricane force winds still expand across half the width of the peninsula, and that's without the possibility of tornadoes on the feeders... or hurricane force gusts extending over the whole of the peninsula.

On CNN just now, Ed Rappaport, Deputy director of the NHC... Anchor: "Ed, we have been speaking to people who have been saying that they're going to ride it out in the keys, and if you could just speak to those people now, what do you say to them?" Ed: " Uh. I'm not sure that they'll make it. We're talking about a 5-10 foot storm surge on islands that are only 5 to 10 feet high, and if it was just that, that's a risk as it is... but we have waves on top of that. Perhaps 15 foot waves, [or] even higher, ~along with~ hurricane force winds. It's very risky to be out there at this point and I would advise everyone who is left to get out now while they can."

I still can't believe that people plan to shoot at it... ... or that some people reckon that enough flamethrowers might dissipate it before their very eyes... as though throwing heat at a heat engine is nothing at all like throwing fuel on a fire. Darwin awards incoming!

So... just to be clear, because I'm still finding it hard to believe and need to hear someone else say it, what are we expecting to see on these cams, surge wise? (If they survive that long) Because an overwash of the Keys is a bit too terrible to want to believe it.

Barbuda may have dodged the bullet here....

Is it just me, or has she almost opened her eye to the outside world here? (0900z)

Anybody standing on the Keys despite the warnings will be swimming just off the Keys shortly after.

Well, I did say that that n'ward turn would cause people to disbelieve it.

I love that you can basically make out the hadley cell model in operation on that loop, right with the mid-latitude cell, even if the polar cell is somewhat obscured by static data. Nice little image.

Absolutely no point in a new thread. The important part of the title is the name, not the status. Gets to be a mess if you can't keep all the discussion about one storm in one place.

We have the invest thread for this sort of thing - though it's understandable that so much attention is being focussed on Irma. As it goes, there are disturbances emerging from Africa, where a tropical wave was expected by the morning.

Actually can't agree with that. We all knew what was probably coming. The French Government acted accordingly, and the British Government didn't - it reacted instead. We could have had boots on the ground immediately and we didn't. We should have - protecting these places in times of natural disaster (both impending and in the aftermath) is part of our responsibility and part of the deal we made in their governance. Alas, it's a point that needs to be made, because our complacency in the matter is, and was not, OK.

My fault. Thought I could change the title once it got upgraded. Apparently I can't edit it now. Apologies.

From Providenciales, Turks....

Can we please reserve a special place in hell for this influential <insert expletive>? Basically, knowing that a bunch of people believe him, he's just put the lives of I don't know how many people at risk, before running off to save his own backside.

45 mins ago... 000 URNT12 KNHC 081457 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 08/14:37:30Z B. 21 deg 51 min N 075 deg 15 min W C. 700 mb 2473 m D. 120 kt E. 315 deg 20 nm F. 049 deg 135 kt G. 315 deg 22 nm H. 929 mb I. 8 C / 3048 m J. 18 C / 3045 m K. 10 C / NA L. CLOSED M. CO24-40 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 2111A IRMA OB 12 MAX FL WIND 148 KT 074 / 45 NM 12:57:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 7 KT ;

"Fish spinner extraordinaire?" Beginning to doubt the initial assessment. Most models have it ~just~ missing the northern leeward islands. Wouldn't take a lot for a worst-case scenario to occur in Barbuda.

According to the latest VDM, it has a 40 mile wide closed eye.