frosty ground

hmmm

a dry spell and maybe some surface cold eventually

looks like the wind farms are going to be switched of next week

Look at the wave crossing the U.K. quite nasty, the storm out west reduces in intensity fortunately on this run

A few storm’s looking likely next week and another if the Atlantic slows down the possibility of a northerly toppled is quite high

big changes again from the GFS at day 7 if not earlier. next week could be stormy

When I wrote “it might lead to nothing but” I was acknowledging that the current output will probably be different by the next run. I will try and make it more clear next time.

Not sure what you point is in relation to my post?

a great evolution as Nick says. might lead to nothing but over the last 48 hours the op has been sniffing height rises around the U.K. it should if maintained start to be picked up by other shorter range models. Why not not bud?

I think that’s my point

Even at that time frame it was never just a ridge in the Atlantic.

for all the zonal winters I’ve seen on these forums I don’t remember to many charts like this even at day ten

I think the output and thread input is making the thread a bit laboured. Most people don’t post anything when there is nothing to talk about others post hourly that there is nothing to talk about

Will we get an undercut on this run with a large scandi high in place?

might be a snow drought for the European ski resorts but the Scottish ones might need digging out.

The foreseeable until the 8th?

Could have been written in 2003.

If this was a day 0 chart and day ten looked the same I would accept the next three weeks could be written off, this is the chart we where promised at Christmas and yet it’s a day 15 chart that won’t be there in the morning. and I’ve seen winters with these charts and this winter is nothing like those.

Of course I mean if we ignore historical records that is. Every cold spell has been preceded by an SSW?

It’s almost like heights to the south are the climate norm. Being at the easterly side of an ocean in a westerly driven pattern.

I can only assume that every spell of weather has been driven by something, so we can’t generate a high pressure? Which then makes me think that when a forecast is made using tools like the MJO or AMM or mountain torque and that forecast fails in this case cold weather or a blocking pattern it must be Down To other drivers that where either not clear or prevalent at the time the forecast was made.

It’s easy to write off a whole month it’s harder to post charts for example I’m pretty sure that high to the east was not showing to long ago and with all the heights draining away over the pole the forecast was for several months of westerly dominated weather all the way to Moscow

I think there is just as much chance of something record breaking coming from the north.

Decent forecast

Happy New year 2003 Flash back to the early days of weather forums. The talk of the winter so far is the December CET being above average which would lead to January and February being above average as was the pattern since the great storm of autumn 87 which for some reason has changed the weather leading to a run of mild snowless winters. Mild snowless winters or the large teapot as it will be called is being caused by several factors…. global warming which will mean no snow in the U.K. by 2020, no below zero CET months ever again. there is also a curious case of low heights being attracted to the GIN sea Greenland Iceland and Norway, these low height stop high pressure forming and moving back west therefore high level blocking is impossible. Of course the Barttlet high is now a common occurrence with the expansion of the Azores high into Europe meaning winters like 98 will be the norm. In the 00’s the winters of 2009 and 2010 where no longer possible snow would no longer exist. it’s been interesting reading some of the comments over the last week, one could be forgiven for thinking we where back in 2003 with the exception December CET came in below average, What makes model watching fun is the unpredictability of it all even with the long range forecasts by forum members that have come on leaps and bounds and a much greater understanding of global drivers, forecasting 2 weeks ahead is always fraught with surprise.