frosty ground
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Everything posted by frosty ground
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch yep days 4-7 has cross model agreement and days 10 plus also has cross model agreement. Sad face justified -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
IDO that chart you have used to determine if it’s an outlier or not has been proven to be unreliable, you should know this from the last time you tried using it. use the full ensemble output then determine if it’s an outlier or not -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
nick sussex still not settled then -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
blizzard81 has it? It’s been bouncing around between north England and souther Scotland for the last few days, 18z Thursday northern England 0z Friday Scotland 12z Friday central England 18z friday northern England 06z blade north England. no pattern -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
northwestsnow it’s the 2nd of February, the runs you are seeing go out to the 16th. Of February why o why are you talking about March? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch like the 06z run? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Snowman. on the 850’s yeah but is the overall pattern of lowering heights to our south still shown? had the icon shown something completely different then yeah I could get it. Don that’s what we are here for…. To find out -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
northwestsnow but it based on a low pressure that’s position won’t be anywhere near right at this stage. And the same can be said about the other models. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Anyone calling the icon a downgrade and getting emotionally invested in runs 7 days away at the placement of a low needs to take a few months off. the icon is clearly in the envelope of outcomes and again it’s not about how far north or south the low gets it’s about how far east and shallow it can become. also it’s the icon … can’t upload image -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch it need to be to the east of the UK rather than just the south of the UK -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mike Poole not much high level blocking in play, what’s driving the low into Iberia? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks very static next week, very wet or very snowy or even both a few miles apart GFS is a snowy route -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
northwestsnow that’s why the snow has dried up the outlooks looks very promising, just a matter of where the boundary will be before days 9 & 10, I think a few surprises next week, if you expect them are they still surprises? LRD at day 5? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
frosty ground replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mike Poole those Iberian heights look sticky