Stuart

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says Into October and our fourth update makes no change to the chance of snow with a green Christmas considered the most likely outcome away from high ground in the north. The latest seasonal forecasting models are possibly suggesting a 'front loaded winter'. If this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with Christmas. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% Forecast issued Update 4, 01/10/2016 The computer says [Issued 03/10/2016 06:14:43] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales Snow is expected in the Midlands Snow is expected in the north Snow is expected in Scotland Snow is expected in Northern Ireland Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says Our third update makes no change to the chance of snow with a green Christmas considered the most likely outcome away from high ground in the north. Since the last update seasonal forecasting models have offered more evidence for a 'front loaded winter'. If this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with Christmas. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% Forecast issued Update 3, 24/09/2016 The computer says [Issued 25/09/2016 11:24:16] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland. Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 25 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 26 Sep 2016 ISSUED 16:23 UTC Sat 24 Sep 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan Strong DLS along the cold front boundary may continue to produce some elements of line convection, especially on the leading edge of the precipitation field, as the front clears eastwards across E/SE England on Sunday morning - although the risk of lightning is very low (near 5-10%). Otherwise, the post-frontal environment will exhibit notably steep lapse rates as a sharp upper trough slides NE from the Atlantic across the British Isles. Numerous showers, as a result of cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs, will be ongoing at the beginning of this forecast period over portions of Ireland, and will tend to become more widespread in coverage through the day across many areas - although very few in sheltered eastern parts. Lightning will be rather sporadic in nature, hence the broad LOW threat level issued, but a favourable overlap of instability phasing with peak diurnal heating suggests a better chance of showers becoming electrified across northern parts of Ireland into Northern Ireland on Sunday afternoon - hence a SLGT issued here. The strongest cells will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail up to 1.5cm in diameter. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-25

TheWeatherOutlook daily update says Our second update this year suggests an increased chance of snow in both the north and south but still keeps a green Christmas as the most likely outcome. Since the first update seasonal forecasting models have offered more evidence for a 'front loaded winter'. If this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with Christmas. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% Forecast issued Update 2, 17/09/2016 The computer says [Issued 17/09/2016 16:11:45] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Snow is expected in Wales Snow is expected in the Midlands Snow is expected in the north Snow is expected in Scotland Snow is expected in Northern Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland Cold conditions in the Netherlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

tomorrow look not to bad here looking at the LI index will the cold front will make things go bang

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 12 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 13 Sep 2016 ISSUED 19:38 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan Sharpening Atlantic upper trough will continue to dig southwards to the west of Iberia, while pivoting to the NE. This will allow northward advection of high a ThetaW airmass on the forward side of the upper trough, ahead of a cold front. Strong, near-parallel flow along this frontal boundary will likely result with episodes of line convection along the cold front, capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps some isolated lightning - hence a fairly broad LOW threat level issued as the front migrates eastwards with time. Overall coverage of lightning is expected to be fairly small, if any. Given strong shear and low cloud bases, there may be scope for an isolated funnel/tornado. Overnight, as the upper trough begins to slowly disrupt, backing the upper flow, some destablisation may occur ahead of the cold front with hints of elevated convection advecting into and/or developing in-situ over parts of Devon/Cornwall late in the night, and perhaps also across the Channel Islands. Given notably steep mid-level lapse rates and strong DLS, there is scope for an upgrade to SLGT - but have refrained at this time due to a lack of cross-model agreement and also the close proximity to running into the next forecast period (for Tuesday). http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-12

and off we go TheWeatherOutlook daily update says Our first update this year suggests a green Christmas is the most likely outcome in most of the UK. The decline of the El Nino event may increase the chances of early colder spells but seasonal forecast models still suggest above average temperatures are more likely than below average ones during the early part of the winter. Therefore, update one suggests an Atlantic based pattern is the most probable set-up and this would restrict the chance of snow to high ground in the north. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10% Forecast issued Update 1, 03/09/2016 The computer says [Issued 04/09/2016 10:33:19] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. Snow is expected in Wales Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands Cold conditions in the north are expected. Marginal for rain or snow. Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

I Think it the same 1 what hit the UK yesterday and moved over the north sea

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 Aug 2016 ISSUED 11:24 UTC Fri 26 Aug 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 11:24 UTC SLGT re-introduced to S/SE England and LOW extended slightly far N to cater for increase elevated activity likely overnight Any leftover elevated convection should soon clear the SE and E Anglia, leaving the main focus during Friday across Scotland where cooling aloft atop relatively warm SSTs and diurnally-warmed land will steepen lapse rates developing a few scattered showers, sometimes organised into bands, with a couple of weakly-electrified thunderstorms. Strengthening DLS from the south through the afternoon could allow some cells to become better organised across northern Scotland - with the potential for an upgrade to SLGT. Late Friday night the attention then shifts to the English Channel and environs as warm, moist plume makes a return from France, in theory beginning to destabilise in the mid-levels as a warm front slowly lifts north. An increase in elevated convection seems likely through the early hours of Saturday morning over the highlighted LOW threat areas - still at this stage a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly this plume will destabilise, and hence how much lightning activity there will be, so we refrain from issuing a SLGT at this stage. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-26

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Sep 2016 to Thursday 22 Sep 2016: A generally changeable pattern of weather through the outlook period, with the north and west of the country seeing the wettest and windiest conditions, with a risk of gales at times.. Drier and more settled conditions in the south and east, but still with a chance of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around normal for the time of year, although slightly warmer in the south east. Updated at: 1215 on Wed 24 Aug 2016 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjp7dy02#?fcTime=1472515200

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Aug 2016 to Wednesday 7 Sep 2016: Bank Holiday Monday is likely to see showers across much of the country, with most of these in the north and east. It should become drier through the day, but with more rain likely from the west overnight. Rain is possible across many areas next Tuesday, with the south east probably staying dry throughout. It is likely to be breezy in places with a fresher feel to the temperatures, but still warm in the sunshine. The rest of the period is looking unsettled, with bands of rain, some stronger winds in the north, but some drier interludes, especially in the south and south east. Temperatures on the whole may be around normal, but possibly warmer in the south. Updated at: 1215 on Wed 24 Aug 2016 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjp7dy02#?fcTime=1472515200

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 24 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 25 Aug 2016 ISSUED 08:03 UTC Wed 24 Aug 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan Most plume events carry an element of uncertainty, but this particular event appears to have greater than average uncertainty. Even at this stage there is a large spread of possible outcomes amongst various models. There is good agreement amongst NWP to keep the warm, moist plume across England capped during Wednesday daytime, despite a build-up of SBCAPE in response to strong heating - particularly across E Anglia / Home Counties / SE England / CS England. Whilst currently unexpected, should the cap be eroded locally, then a strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm would be possible capable of large hail, given strong deep layer shear and high values of storm relatively helicity. The most likely evolution, however, is an increase in elevated convection to occur as the warm plume begins to destabilise, beginning over the English Channel and environs (Dorset/Devon etc) early-mid afternoon, with activity generally migrating NNE-wards through the evening and night hours. Initially, given hot, dry surface air, a lot of virga with not much precipitation reaching the ground is expected, but still scope for some (at least sporadic) lightning from elevated thunderstorms. That said, upper forcing is rather weak much of the time, and a low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight this risk, but with some uncertainty over the exact areas that may be affected, and hence a shift to the W or E may be possible in any later updates. Later in the night slightly stronger forcing arrives from the southwest, but by this stage the most favourable conditions for thunderstorms will have shifted east - and so a broad LOW threat level is issued for an uptick in precipitation coverage later in the night over the Midlands for example, but questionable as to how much lightning activity will be associated with this. The true extent of lightning activity (in terms of frequency and coverage) is a little unclear at this time, and at this stage does not look to be as frequent/widespread as the 19th-20th July 2016 events. Any thunderstorm activity that does develop on Wednesday night will continue to track NNE-wards beyond this forecast period into Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms will also be possible over W Scotland and western fringes of Ireland on Wednesday night. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-24

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 Aug 2016 ISSUED 05:41 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan We are starting to the see the transition now from land to sea-generated convection as we head towards the autumn months. Broad upper low will sit over the British Isles on Saturday, with an associated surface low drifting from Northern Ireland to the Scottish Borders / North Sea by the end of this forecast period. Cool mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs and increasing land surface temperatures during the diurnal cycle will create an unstable environment, with numerous showers developing and rotating around the main parent low. This then gives a rather broad area at risk of lightning (hence the large LOW threat level), albeit each individual shower has a relatively low chance of producing lightning, and hence makes it rather difficult to highlight specific areas to upgrade to SLGT. One main inhibiting factor may be excessive amounts of cloud reducing the amount of insolation in places, especially associated with wrap-around occlusions. Nonetheless, some lightning is expected, and we have included a SLGT where forcing might be better during the afternoon/evening hours. The most intense showers will be capable of producing gusty winds, perhaps a brief funnel, and also small hail. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-20

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 Aug 2016 ISSUED 19:05 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan We are starting to the see the transition now from land to sea-generated convection as we head towards the autumn months. Broad upper low will sit over the British Isles on Saturday, with an associated surface low drifting from Northern Ireland to the Scottish Borders / North Sea by the end of this forecast period. Cool mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs and increasing land surface temperatures during the diurnal cycle will create an unstable environment, with numerous showers developing and rotating around the main parent low. This then gives a rather broad area at risk of lightning (hence the large LOW threat level), albeit each individual shower has a relatively low chance of producing lightning, and hence makes it rather difficult to highlight specific areas to upgrade to SLGT. One main inhibiting factor may be excessive amounts of cloud reducing the amount of insolation in places, especially associated with wrap-around occlusions. Nonetheless, some lightning is expected, and we have included a SLGT where forcing might be better during the afternoon/evening hours. The most intense showers will be capable of producing gusty winds, perhaps a brief funnel, and also small hail http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-20

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 Aug 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 Aug 2016 ISSUED 20:49 UTC Thu 18 Aug 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridge initially across the British Isles will shift eastwards as a notable upper trough approaches from the southwest, associated with an unseasonably deep area of low pressure. The greatest potential for lightning will likely be in the post-frontal environment, especially through Friday night over the Celtic / Irish Seas and neighbouring coastal counties, as cold mid-levels round the base of the upper trough atop relatively warm SSTs. Given marginal instability, the true spatial extent of lightning is probably not high enough to warrant an upgrade to SLGT at this time. The strongest cells may produce gusty winds and some small hail. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-08-19

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Aug 2016 to Thursday 8 Sep 2016: The current indications are that the latter part of August and the first week of September will be changeable, or perhaps unsettled at times, with periods of rain or showers interspersed with drier and brighter conditions weather. The rain and showers are likely to be most prevalent across northwestern areas, more especially during late August, whereas the best of the drier, sunnier conditions are more likely to occur in the southeast. There should be some warm days, especially in the south, but northern parts may end up being a little cooler than average during this period. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Aug 2016 to Wednesday 24 Aug 2016: Early next week looks predominantly dry and sunny with temperatures rising, possibly becoming hot across parts of the south. The heat looks short-lived though as Atlantic fronts edge in from the west by midweek. This will bring a risk of thunderstorms and heavy rain for a time, with cooler, fresher conditions becoming established by the latter part of the week. Thereafter, details are very uncertain, but the changeable weather looks likely to dominate, with brighter spells interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain. Into the following week, this changeable pattern will probably continue, with most of the rain tending to be in the west, and eastern areas seeing the driest conditions. Though temperatures will average out close to normal, some warm days are likely, especially in the south. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I had some thunder as well

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Aug 2016 to Thursday 1 Sep 2016: There is significant uncertainty in the forecast during this period, but the most likely scenario is for a fairly changeable pattern to persist. Showers or longer spells of rain are therefore expected, interspersed with some dry and bright interludes. The heaviest and most persistent rain is likely to occur in the north and west, with the best of the drier weather in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to remain generally on the cool side, with some chilly nights when skies clear and winds fall light. Updated at: 1230 on Wed 3 Aug 2016 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Aug 2016 to Wednesday 17 Aug 2016: Monday will be breezy with outbreaks of rain moving east across most the country, followed by fresher, showery conditions. In the southeast it will be dry, bright and pleasantly warm for much of the day, before the rain arrives to introduce the fresher, cooler conditions country wide. The rest of next week should be mainly dry in the south, whilst more unsettled and sometimes windy weather could affect the north at times. Changeable conditions are most likely to continue through to the middle of August, although the south and west should see some reasonable dry and sunny periods. Temperatures are expected to be below average overall, with some chilly nights and local grass frost, particularly in the north. Updated at: 1229 on Wed 3 Aug 2016 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I never seen a bad storm like that on early wed morning since I moved up here

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 25 Jul 2016 ISSUED 13:09 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 13:09 UTC N & E Scotland upgraded to a low-end SLGT for the potential for embedded lightning activity to develop through the evening / overnight hours as the approaching upper trough causes mid-level lapse rates to steepen. It is quite likely many areas within the SLGT will remain void of lightning, but there is increasing potential at least for lightning over this area later today. The placement of this SLGT is subject to subtle E-W shifts given some uncertainty over the exact track of the developing low this evening UPDATE 11:56 UTC No changes to the map on this update, although the (already marginal) SLGT is being considered for removal from Northern Ireland. At the same time, parts of NE Scotland may require an upgrade for the evening hours to a SLGT - trends will be monitored A complex frontal system will spill northeastwards across the British Isles on Sunday, beneath an upper trough. A messy mix of dynamic and convective precipitation is expected with marginal instability, and hence the broad LOW threat level issued - although it is quite likely that many areas will be void of lightning. The environment may be slightly more conducive for lightning within a narrow window of a few hours on Sunday afternoon over Northern Ireland in the immediate post-frontal airmass. Dewpoints in the mid teens Celsius combined with surface heating should yield 200-400 Jkg-1 MLCAPE, with the potential for a few scattered showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, to develop. 30-40kts DLS should allow some cell organisation to occur, with perhaps some small hail from the strongest cells. Have issued a low-end SLGT to highlight this area better. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-24

yes I am getting thunder at from that storm

yes was bad here to and lasted about 2 hours

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 Jul 2016 ISSUED 08:02 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 08:02 UTC Small tweaks to existing highlighted areas, and some additional text added below A few isolated to well-scattered showers or thunderstorms may form this afternoon over high ground of Northern England and Scotland. However, the majority of activity will begin this evening and persist overnight, as outlined below... Shortwave trough is likely to engage with instability axis as it crosses NW Ireland / Northern Ireland on Tuesday afternoon/evening, with an environment with Tds in the high teens Celsius, yielding 1,000-2,000 Jkg-1 MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to erupt late afternoon through the evening hours, drifting to the N/NE. Given high CAPE, 30-40kts DLS and backed surface winds, any discrete storms may become supercells, at least for a time, with an associated risk of hail to 3.5cm in diameter, strong, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado - SVR issued to cover all three threats. Some parts of C and W Scotland may require an upgrade to MDT for activity expected this evening/tonight - trends will be monitored. Elsewhere, falling heights in advance of the upper trough will lead to destabilisation during late Tuesday evening and through early hours of Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm development occurring during the evening hours, these moving NE-wards through the night while expanding in coverage - MDT issued where risk of thunderstorms is considered higher, but as is often the case in such situations, this area may need to be modified in placement/size as convective trends become more clear nearer the event. Given nocturnal cooling will have occurred to a certain extent before any significant convection develops, most cells will be elevated but still pose a risk of local flash flooding from heavy downpours and elements of backbuilding, and also a hail threat - SVR then issued to cover the greatest risk of flooding / large hail. Significant CAPE and steep lapse rates suggests lightning could be quite prolific in places. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-19