Stuart

look like bbc still with the met office today

I sure we will know tomorrow

Storms are heading in to Scotland now

look like game over for me now as the met office removed the warning

Storm Forecast Valid: Sat 27 May 2017 06:00 to Sun 28 May 2017 06:00 UTC Issued: Sat 27 May 2017 06:51 Forecaster: TASZAREK A level 1 was issued for N Spain, N France and Benelux mainly for the large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation. A level 1 was issued for E British Isles mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and in lesser extent for isolated tornado event. SYNOPSIS Spanish plume with a steep lapse rates and rich boundary layer moisture continues to develop over W parts of Europe. A typical for this feature ridge extends from NW Africa up to N Germany. A small shortwave providing lift moves trough British Isles, N France and Benelux in the afternoon hours. Although high shear values are displaced from the best instability areas, severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain are possible. A broad thunderstorm activity within the long-wave trough is also possible on the other side of the ridge over Balkan Peninsula and parts of E Europe. However, due to small wind shear and weak instability severe weather potential over this area is strongly limited. Isolated storms with a heavy precipitation potential may develop over W and CNTRL Alps, but due to strong uncertainty regarding CI, no level threat is issued for this area. DISCUSSION ... W Europe ... The mixture of elevated mixed layer with lapse rates exceeding 7 K/km along with low-level moisture pooling (mixing ratios ~ 12-13 g/kg) and strong diurnal heating, develops a moderate to high instability (ML CAPE ~ 1500-3000 J/kg) in the belt from N Spain up to Benelux. DLS is not very high and amounts mostly 10 m/s (apart from N edge of France where 15 m/s may be available) which limits supercell potential and overall severity of convective cells. However, thanks to high thermodynamic instability large hail locally exceeding 3-4cm cannot be ruled out. Very large hail may occur if thunderstorms will develop in the better shear environment over N edge of France. Slow motion of the cells and high PW (~ 35mm) will also favour heavy rain events and a possible local flash flooding. Local severe wind gusts due to microburst phenomena are also involved. Limitation of this forecast is associated with the uncertain magnitude of the cap which may limit CI, especially over N France. The magnitude of lift seems to be also not very high, even besides WAA. Severe thunderstorms will be also possible in the warm sector over E British Isles. Although these stay under weaker thermodynamic instability area, trough centre is closer and thus provide better lift and overall kinematics. Thunderstorm developing in this area may be capable of clustering into multicells capable of producing severe wind gusts and heavy rain. Few large hail incidents exceeding 2-3cm also cannot be ruled out. A marginal tornado potential also exists over tritple-point in E-CNTRL British Isles where low-level shear and helicity will be enhanced. Majority of surface-based thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather will develop in the afternoon hours over N Spain, N France and E British Isles. In the evening hours, thunderstorm should move to Benelux and become elevated. A band of storms (squall line) moving through North Sea is also possible. ... SE Europe ... Strong diurnal heating, enhanced low-level moisture due to evapotranspiration and lack of cap will favour "internal-airmass" convection over Balkan Peninsula, E Ukraine, SW Russia and Turkey. ML CAPE is predicted to be mostly small, locally moderate (up to 1000 J/kg). Along with weak environmental wind shear severe weather potential within these storms is strongly limited. However, few local events of heavy rain and severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out, but the overall threat seems to lie below level 5% severe probability. http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2017052806_201705270651_1_stormforecast.xml

21c dew point at 15c and humidity at 70% and LI at -2 to -3 so all not looking bad here for storms later this evening

better waiting for tomorrow

I would not worry about it not all ways to do about the energy

yes same here only 17 c and a bit more cloud around

no chance of storms here now as it been downgrade last few days

Looking forward Saturday storms

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 May 2017 ISSUED 18:01 UTC Fri 19 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Chris Upper trough axis will spread eastwards out of Britain during the morning, although an unstable airmass will remain across many areas into the afternoon. This in combination with an eastward progressing occluded front could help to trigger widespread scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The timing of the trough axis clearing before max heating will reduce the risk of lightning into the afternoon across central and eastern Britain, despite there being some sharper convection. Pinpointing which showers may produce a few lightning strikes will be difficult, thus such a large low end risk. An update will be issued if model trends are able to highlight more detail Saturday morning. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-20

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 May 2017 ISSUED 16:16 UTC Tue 16 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Chris A slow-moving, waving cold front will push eastwards during Wednesday bringing some much needed rain across parts of central, southern and eastern England. Riding along the eastern edge of this area of rain will be a marginally unstable airmass. There are two options for convective showers/lightning. One being from storms that generate across northern France and become elevated as they move across the Channel and become embedded with a more complex area of rain as the front approaches. The other being if there is any bright/sunny spells ahead of the front during the day on Wednesday and this could spark surface based thunderstorms in the southeastern corner of England. The highest risk in the brown sausage will be across eastern parts of Kent, Essex and Suffolk. If lightning does develop in this scenario, it could become frequent enough to warrant a slight risk. Post cold front there will also be enough CAPE and steeping mid-level lapse rates to produce heavy showers in Ireland, these could have a sporadic lightning strike, although the risk remains low and isolated. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-17

yes it hit here in Nairn as well but did not last long

next week looking not to bad for some storms

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 May 2017 ISSUED 05:01 UTC Wed 10 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan WAA regime will continue into Thursday as a surface warm front lifts north across England and Wales. As a result, showery outbreaks of rain from primarily medium/high cloud will continue to nudge northwards in a rather sporadic / erratic fashion, with some embedded elevated convection possible given destabilisation of higher WBPT plume as the Biscay upper trough approaches - some sporadic, localised lightning is possible, but unlikely to be too widespread given marginal instability. Behind this front, increasing insolation over southern England during the afternoon hours may allow surface-based deep convection to occur late afternoon into Thursday evening, given heating of this higher WBPT airmass, surface convergence and the approach of the Biscay upper trough. Question marks remain over the extent of the cloud cover, which may act as an inhibitor - however, the vast majority of NWP guidance still develop some thunderstorms, if rather isolated in some cases. A SLGT has been issued to highlight the areas at risk, with perhaps some small hail from the most active cells and a risk of localised flash flooding. Additional thunderstorms may also be advected from France / develop in-situ over the Channel towards S/SE England in the evening, but perhaps weakening as they do so. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-11

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 May 2017 ISSUED 04:05 UTC Mon 01 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Cut-off upper low will reside over northern France / southern England on Monday, with a surface low lingering over England and Wales. A messy and rather complicated picture is expected, with a cold front and wrap-around occlusion provide the focus for some outbreaks of rain, rotating around the main low centre. Behind the cold front, which will tend to straddle northern England, sufficient insolation will be capable of producing a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly where low-level wind convergence provides some forcing accompanied by the best overlap of instability and shear during peak heating (particularly SE Wales/W Country - S Midlands - CS England). A low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight this area, albeit instability is not overly-impressive. Some small hail may be possible with the strongest cells, along with the chance of a few funnels or weak tornadoes - especially close to the surface low centre. Slow storm-motion may cause some temporary localised surface water issues. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-01

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Apr 2017 ISSUED 17:37 UTC Sun 23 Apr 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan On Monday, a sharpening upper trough will slide slowly SE-wards across the British Isles, driving a cold front southwards and eventually introducing an Arctic airmass overnight into Tuesday. Given strong flow aloft along the cold front, some elements of line convection will be possible, albeit in a rather messy fashion and generally lacking in any sufficient depth to be concerned over lightning potential. However, ahead of the cold front, hints of surface troughing will likely help the development of some low-level convergence on Monday afternoon / early evening, sufficient to generate a few moderately-heavy showers over S/SE England. Overall convective depth is likely to be too shallow for lightning activity, but have issued a low-end LOW threat level to highlight the area with some very marginal potential for isolated lightning activity. Farther north, more significant instability will develop through the evening and overnight as the upper trough and associated cold airmass drives southwards. During the night hours, the most intense convection will be found over seas and hence affecting windward coasts, and here the lightning potential will be greatest (albeit still considered a LOW threat level in any given location). Small hail and gusty winds will be possible with some of these wintry showers (along with the associated risk of snow accumulations, especially on high ground). A few cold air funnels (or brief tornado/waterspout) will also be possible http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-24 Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 25 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 26 Apr 2017 ISSUED 17:44 UTC Sun 23 Apr 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan A rather amplified upper pattern will dominate on Tuesday over the Atlantic and northern Europe, with a longwave trough extending from Scandinavia and across the British Isles. All areas will be under the influence of a cold, Arctic airmass, with frequent showers near windward coasts at first, while most inland locations will be clear to start, but through the day diurnal heating will help generate convection widely inland too, sometimes focussed along distinct bands as shortwave troughs move south in the flow. As a result, a widespread (but relatively low per given location) risk of lightning will exist, along with some small hail and wintry precipitation - especially on hills. A few cold air funnels will be possible also. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-25

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 28 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 29 Mar 2017 ISSUED 18:09 UTC Mon 27 Mar 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan A shortwave trough will migrate NE from Biscay and across the British Isles on Tuesday, accompanied by cool mid-levels and hence steeper lapse rates. Assuming this phases favourably with diurnal heating, several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE will allow scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. However, there is a chance that the upper trough may move through slightly too early for peak heating. Nonetheless, a SLGT has been introduced where there is some reasonable confidence for an overlap of instability and upper-level support for at least a few scattered thunderstorms to develop, especially during the afternoon/early evening. It is plausible another SLGT may be needed for portions of E Wales and the Midlands into southern parts of N England, but forecast profiles look drier farther east with hints of capping - so while a few showers and/or thunderstorms are also possible here, they are likely to be more isolated / well-scattered in nature, and hence coverage perhaps not high enough to upgrade to SLGT at this stage. Given instability and dry air aloft, hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible in the strongest cells. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-03-28

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 Mar 2017 ISSUED 16:14 UTC Sun 26 Mar 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Subtle re-positioning of the upper high cell over the North Sea will allow the upper vortex near Biscay to be drawn northwards towards SW Britain. The associated forcing in an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates will bring the potential for showery precipitation to develop later on Monday night into Tuesday morning - hence the main interest period is 01Z onwards. Given some weak instability, there is the potential for embedded elevated deep convection to develop, capable of producing some sporadic/isolated lightning - hence the introduction of a LOW threat area. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-03-27

it just raining here the radar showing sleet lol

it not all do with the Uppers it the Dew point is the most import thing

Have a Lovely Christmas.all

The tenth update suggests makes no change to the chance of snow with a green Christmas the favoured outcome for most of the country. However, indications from medium and long range forecasting models continue to suggest an increased possibility of below average temperatures during the first half of the winter. Therefore, we think there is a higher than average chance of a cold snap coinciding with the Christmas period this year. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 23% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18% Forecast issued Update 10, 12/11/2016 The computer says [Issued 13/11/2016 19:10:16] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right? It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland. It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland. It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland. Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

don't think I will seem much here on low ground