mcweather

I see that within less than 24 hours the countryfile forecast of a snowy low in the channel for friday has been downgraded. Reminds me of the great extreme weather alert debacle back in Jan 2010 when 12-18 inches of snow was supposed to fall in Dorset and we ended up with not a flake.

@MattHugo81 seems rather familiar by now doesn't it?! I suspect the low will disrupt more than progged by this morning's det. runs

I would be very wary about taking one set of warm side of ensemble operational runs at face value. The FORM horse for the end of the week remains some kind of snow event somewhere across England and probably somewhat further south than the events of the the last couple of days. I'm pretty sure that we'll hear from Fergie later that the Meto consider the raw output far too progressive and will amend it accordingly. Could be a very interesting Countryfile forecast tonight.

I don't think we are entering a mini ice age but the current spell of weather and the undoubted change in the overall synoptic patter during the last 5 years which will soon be added to by the amo going cold suggest to me number of things. 1 A winter to challenge 47 or 63 is not an impossibility, After all minus 10 uppers are minus ten uppers global warming not withstanding. 2 The major factors governing our day to day weather are not climate change/or global warming, they are the atmospheric and oceanic forcings like PDO , AMO , NAO ETC. 3 Climate change / global warming changes may be evident on a 50 year to 50 year basis or century to century basis but they are pretty irrelevant on a day to day basis in the shorter term. According to predictions back in the 90's our current March cold spell should have been virtually impossible.

Yes Steve, hoping Fergie will get back to us regarding yesterdays Meto worries about another big snow event ( possibly further south) later next week.

Hi Fergie thanks as ever for your expertise. I know the meto guys must be very busy with the impending snowmageddon in mid to northern parts. Are they also still concerned about later next week as well ( as you intimated yesterday)

Sorry Gavin you are incorrect. Take a look at the graphical representation of the 12z ecm and nowhere on the graph is the op a cold outlier. It is on the cold side of the runs but not an outlier at any point.

The ECM seems to have been out for a night on the tiles and has found itself waking up in bed with the GFS. Something it will surely regret in the morning

It only matter if it verifies Gavin I'd check that its not a mild outlier before counting my chickens

BBC forecast for the week ahead suggesting snow for central southern England if the fronts push in on friday http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21824040

Sorry Mushy but the bbc week ahead forecast is much in line with Steve Murr for the end of the week. I would imagine that the countryfile one later won't be any different. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21824040

30 feet snow drifts with just minus 2 uppers

I love your posts mushy. You always have doubts as to any snow falls. I don't want to arguethis either it just makes me chuckle

Indeed it is Steve Blizzard of 78 anyone lol Loving these southward corrections

Even here at just 45metres above sea level there has been snow mixed in the rain this morning.

looks at ecm 168 well well well

Just waiting for the ecm to correct everything about 150 mile south and I'll be laughing. Still quite a bit to be decided yet as regards things later in the week. Small tweeks will make big differences

gfs hinting at trough disruption at 126

Really. Twelve days before the coldest uppers of the winter. They were going for a southwesterly in their 10-15dayer.

But we did have 30mm yesterday and overnight and the road from Wool to Wareham was flooded this morning

Indeed NBLSB. and at no point in the above post do I say there is a big freeze on the way. I just happen to think looking at the model output overall that the colder options look just as possible as the milder ones. The milder outcome has been consistently lessened and move further back over the last few days and even the meto outlook only has the southwest with nearer normal temps which suggest that a correction of say 150 miles south would be all that is needed to upset the apple cart for that outlook. As Nick Sussex said earlier it will probably be monday before we can get a real handle on developments late next week and I wouldn't be surprised if that meto outlook looks somewhat different come tuesday or wednesday. I,m not saying it definitely will be different just that I wouldn't be surprised if it is.

Regrarding the Meto mid term update. Whilst I hold the meto in high regards. It needs to be remembered that FI is probably about tuesday or weds at the moment. So the update is essentially putting forward one option allbeit as they see it the favoured one. However the current situation going forward is a highly unusual one and one in which very subtle changes can have big ramifications. The blocking cutting say 100 or 150 miles further south ( which is perfectly possible) would make for major differences down the line. Remember just a few days ago the mild push was done and dusted for practically the whole of the UK by next thursday. The only consiitent from the operationals has been to one lessen the extent of the mild push and two push back the time that it makes inroads. That is a trend that has been picked up with relish by the gfs op as well as the JMA and GEM. and The ECM at 144 and 168 only needs the a slight tweek south to join them. Meto outlook or not I wouldn't be counting my chickens regarding any kind of warm up yet with that amount of model output going against it.

Just for fun this mornings GEM for next sunday. There are still plenty of options on the table in the current set-up. Don't forget that the northern blocking is not competing with a roaring jet at the moment.

Interesting that my hunch from thursday evening seems to be coming to fruition. Indeed although it is beyond 144 and just for fun the GFS 06 is even toying with a Feb 78 scenario around 170hrs There is no doubting that the trend in the models over the last couple of days has been to firstly delay any milder push and keep pushing it back and also to bring the possible snow line back southwards across the UK. Any further correction in that direction and even I might be in line for a late dose of the white stuff!! Things are very finely balanced at the moment and the models are struggling to choose a winner between the very cold pool and blocking to our northeast and the westerly influence with a relatively week jet.

I wouldn't be that worried about the op run not having much support. The recent spell of sub minus ten uppers was actually first picked up by a lone GFS operational outlier.