mcweather

Hi John Its is a reasonable point that you have raised there. but here's another one that a newbie on here might legitmately raise. If the 500mb charts only suggested the possibility of Scandinavian blocking on just one day, how come the operational runs from synoptic models created and run by professional meteorologists continued to show such blocking as a possibilty for a darn sight longer, surely the two can't be that disconnected can they?

Good post John. We can all hope for what we might like to see but if its not being consistently shown in the models ( especially short to medium term) then it is unlikely to appear. I would love the briefly shown easterly to come off but the vast majority of the modelling says no, so its unlikely. However we still have February to to look forward to.

The problem with looking at the CET for reference in writing off winter is that assumes that cold and snowy spells fit neatly into calendar month packages. It would be quite possible to have the first two weeks of Jan mild or very mild then have the next four weeks cold and snowy and then a v mild last two weeks of feb, in that both instance both Jan and feb would show up as average on the CET despite a four week cold and snowy spell which would have been the talking point of the winter.

I,m with you TEITS. The longer the pattern is in this stalemate situation the more likely it seems to me that energy will start to dive SE. Especially with the increased amplification and retrogression hinted at by NOAA in their 10-14 day outlook a couple of nights back. The last week of Jan could well be the turning point in that process.

or trendsetter of course

The GFS will always be nearer the mark in zonal dross conditions because that is its default setting. The real test of a model in our part of the world is how it handles a situation that isn't westerly based,

Well well well, Just when I thought it was safe to come out from behind the sofa, I find myself yet again looking through my fingers at the screen as another ECM easterly with some half decent uppers later on materialises before my eyes. Can it be trusted? Can any model be trusted in these circumstances? One thing that seems clear from the to and fro modelling over the last few days is that the various outputs have been struggling to get a handle on what would appear to have been (and suggested by Ian F) a very finely balanced situation. Phil NW made avery valid point earlier in that the last 24 hours modelling from the ECM has seen an increasing reluctance to sink the block so in a way tonights 12z ECM does have some continuity and consistency of output to it. However I think I would like to see a couple more runs confirming tonights output or something very close to it before I take it as a real goer. Hopefully the tide is turning.

Hi Fergie Thank you as ever for your much valued input to this thread. I think what some of us find a little baffling is the fact that the despite the key message from the UKMO being. one of greater than average uncertainty beyond next weekend. This not reflected in the extended outlooks on the Meto site. For instance the extended outlook issued this afternoon makes no mention of uncertainty of outlook at all and merely reflects the strongest signal that you have mentioned in your post. If the uncertainty is greater than average one wonders why it is not mentioned.

Excellent post CC. Winter is far from over but we need so many things to fall into place to get a really decent cold spell that caution always has to be the watchword. Never the less if the current vortex forecasts do verify then perhaps we might get a shot or two at something genuinely wintry instead of this endless autumn that we have been locked into for what seems like an eternity.

So there we have it Another ECM false alarm raise the hopes of us coldies only to dash them yet again. Much as I am one to say keep the faith I do think this particular episode is over, However I wouldn't write off the winter as whole just yet. With the predicted attacks on the polar vortex February may yet hold the key to givingsome of us some of the white stuff. I must admit I wouldn't mind a euro high to give the southwest a drier spell to end January I have recorded 14 inches of rain since mid December and Dorset really needs to dry out a bit. I'm surprised that the ECM with its improved scaling should have got the Easterly wrong again. as another poster has noted it has improved its upper air capabilities, however the last time I checked human beings live on the surface of the planet so although what happens up there can make our weather down here. The actual weather we experience happens down here and it is that that we need to be modelled and forecasted correctly. With the UK being such a tiny land mass in the global scale of things tiny differences in verified modelling will always make major differences to the weather we experience. A fact that we have to live with. Never mind bring on February and March.

Thats not quite the case really Karlos because Ian F was on this very thread himself suggesting that 50% of MOGREPS runs backed an easterly outcome at one point. So in reality even the mighty MOGREPS was almost seduced by the Siberian temptress.

Hi Fergie Utterly compelling as in oh look at how powerful the jet is and look at these amazing floods or Utterly compelling as in crikey look at those minus ten uppers and stalling fronts over the southwest. go on you know want to tell us really ps thanks as always for your input

Again as with last nights ECM it will be interesting to see where the latter stages sit within the ensemble suite

Very true Nick, the meto won't come on board publicly until they are 80% sure of an outcome they have a professional reputation to maintain unlike the Daily Express where the words professional and reputation are notable by their absence.

That's good news on the ensembles BA. I like the sound of trough extensions undercutting or as we call them in my part of the country. A good old Dorset slider!! It really would be good to get a decent block in place in time for the part of winter where the jet tends to lose some of its sting. In fact I wonder if this what the Met are referring to in a round about way in the last part of he 16-30 day outlook.

Some genuinely interesting developments on the models this evening. It will be interesting to see where the ECM run sits within it,s ensemble suite. GFS has at last smelt the Scandinavian coffee it seems. UKMO looking good for the transition at 144. It does seem that some sort of change from the current god awful set up is now afoot with the possibility of a battleground scenario being one of the possible options. As we all know the precise track and position and orientation of fronts a weather systems then comes into play in deciding who gets what. Still way to far out to think about that but if the general pattern proves correct then there could be some interesting times ahead.

It does when the floodwater freezes like it did in 78/79

Tell me about it I,ve had 11 inches of rain since it started in earnest the week before Christmas.

The last two GFS runs have shown a change in the pattern that may gives us a chance of something colder after mid month. Of course its all in FI as some wise heads have pointed out. To be fair to the GFS at least the yanks have the balls to put their FI out for public scrutiny unlike the other big two. Again wise heads have pointed out the extremely low verification rates of all models at that range. This of course is good news because at that range it means the GFS has got as much chance of being correct with the pattern as any other model.

Quite so Stodge 1947, the snowiest of the last 100 years is one that springs to mind.

GFS 12Z operational run. Wouldn't be the first time an outlier has proved to be a trendsetter........................................

and the reliable foreseeable according to the met office is about seven to ten days max, which takes all the way to oh yes the 5th of January leaving 26 days of January for something different.

I hope Fergie does not mind but his recent tweet is quite insightful: fergieweather Tentative signs of some changes to broadscale story later through Jan as number of MOGREPS & EC members offer E'rly types with low to Biscay 27/12/2013 08:30

I would be very wary of any forecaster amateur or professional who confidently predicts what the weather will be like in 30 days time. All that Susan Powell is actually saying is that there looks to be very little in the way of cold weather from what the models are saying TODAY. She cannot speak for what the models might show in a few days time because she doesn't know what they will show. One can tell by the way the ECM 32 dayer flips around like a fish out of water how quickly indicators can change. By this time next week the models may well start to pick up on a completely different set up. Only time will tell.

Merry Christmas model watchers, some sleet in the heavy showers here this morning so technically a white christmas. lol