noggin
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Posts posted by noggin
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Ian F just hinted that next Monday might be a little more interesting....perhaps something to keep an eye on?
Pah!
It'll just be another snowy carrot to tantalise us donkeys with!
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Yes, the ridged conditions look more dominant now to start the easter weekend. However, need to be mindful that albeit we've seen a reduction in snow threat Fri-Sat (and even this continues to have significant uncertainties and can't yet be discounted), the EPS continue to resurrect this potential later into Easter BH Weekend (Monday, notably). So it's not a done deal, yet, in evading some snow-related issues in the SW/S by start of next week.
I feel like a donkey chasing a snowy carrot!
Always appreciate your input, though, Ian......it.keeps our feet planted firmly on the ground.
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Ian Fergusson @fergieweather
W COUNTRY Threat of disruptive snow by Fri-Sat thankfully reduced, albeit still uncertain... @metoffice currently gives it 20% probability.
Thankfully? THANKFULLY? THANKFULLY?
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So much potential, but so little snow.
We had nice snow in January and I thought I'd be satisfied for Winter with that. But I'm ashamed to say that I'm not!
It is frustrating that "others" get huge amounts and yet any potential that we get, such as the end of this week, just seems to fizzle away, the nearer we get to it. I know we haven't yet reached the end of the week, but going on past experience I bet any snow goes elsewhere.
Gosh, what a miserable old bag I am today!
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After seemingly missing out on all the decent snow events - My fingers are firmly crossed the Midlands North end up with a cloudy summer and we end up with the real deal!
I like your way of thinking!
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You and I will do our bit because we both work close to the land and we understand that we should not abuse it, both short-term and longer-term.
Same here.
Whoops, better add something on topic: some nice sunny spells this morning, after quite a hard frost!
The sky is a lovely shade of blue, in between the clouds!
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Icy cold rain whilst driving to work at 7o'clock this morning.
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Morning all! Have woken up to a snow flurry falling out of a mainly blue sky. Looks like a few snow showers are the order of the day for this part of the world.
Same here....the odd flurry. Happily, on the frozen soil, there remains some of yesterday's powdery snow.
According to MetO's Filton observations, windchill during the night was minus 11 degrees. Brrrrrrrrrr!
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Snowing in Coalpit Heath. Starting to settle on the soil and on shed roofs.
Five minutes later.........
It's stopped now, but the powdery stuff is still visible on the soil as it is so darned cold.
Looking at the radar, it looks as if we could get flurries galore coming across and down from the North East.
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People moan about seagull poop,,,,Can you imagine the mess flying pigs would make,,,,,Have to teach them to fly upside down. .especially over Bournemouth,,,,
Sorry, I can't resist this............
Little birdie, in the sky,
Dropped a message from on high.
"Ah", said farmer, wiping eye,
Aren't I glad my cows don't fly".
Anyway, back on topic, dull and drizzly rubbish here today. A little bit of snow next week would be very nice!
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Dull, grey and drizzly.
I suppose it makes a change from dull, grey and dry.
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I have pm'd you, weathermaster.
I wonder which map I will end up on.......despite being in the South West, I think I may end up on the Midlands and East of England map! Or possibly on a black border line!
Ah, well..........as long as I can still be a part of Netweather, I shall be happy wherever I end up although the SW regional thread will always be my home.
I love Netweather.
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Grey, foggy, cold and windy here.
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Oh, what a beau-ti-ful morrrrrrrrrning,
Oh, what a beau-ti-ful dayyyyyyyy.............
Tra la la.
Isn't it lovely........blue skies and the big yellow thing; feeling blessed this mornng! It's put me into a silly mood and I really do keep singing that song!
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On that subject are you watching the year that Britain flooded now on channel four I think ...
I watched that. Some of the footage was quite scary.
But, unless I missed a bit when I nipped to the bathroom, I didn't see much reference to the South West, apart from a small bit about the Severn.
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Morning All!
Yes, I too venture into the Model Discussion thread now and again and quite enjoy the exciting, and always positive reports, from Ryan, The Dutch Weatherman, amongst a few others... this is the friendlier thread, however!
Ryan, The Dutch Weatherman, is fast becoming a legend in my opinion!
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A brief foray into the Model Discussion thing shows some positivity this morning with some blocking looking to be coming in the right place. I don't really understand it much, but people seemed quite pleased!
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Good morning, lovely peeps. Thick ice on the car this morning. It looks almost as if there could have been a flake or two during the night, but it's hard to tell in the dark.
It's pretty parky, anyway!
I understand that it should be dry today; yipee....it's my day off and I should be able to do something in the garden at last.
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If I look very, very hard and stand really, really still, I can see the occasional tiny little bit of white stuff coming down!
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Let joy be unconfined.........it is actually not raining here!
It's not snowing either, but at least it's not raining.
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Suppose should feel sorry for the rain,much maligned nephew of Uncle Snow.
NEVER.
I've had enough of it. If it didn't rain for the next 12 months I wouldn't care.
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Hi Noggin
Nice to see someone just down the road from me in here so with that in mind this is my first ever post �� a signed up member for two years and a lurker for many years, didn't ever fancy making my first post in the Model thread, it's a scary place sometimes but now I pop in here and it's much more homely ��
Anyhow I agree with your post above (at least I hope your post comes out quoted above) the recent spell of snow was superb and there does seem to be a general increase in snow events here these past few years and long may it continue. As a guy in his late 40's I LOVE snow and always will ⛄
Back to lurking but wanted to say keep up the good work guys and gals I love this site and log on every day without fail ��
Hello,snowywinter!
Whereabouts are you? I moved from Downend to Coalpit Heath last year, so that I could be North of the M4, rather than South of it. Well, that wasn't the real reason.....it was just a nice bonus, but hey ho, every little helps.Now that you have posted, I hope that you will continue to. There are a (very) few of us here, from this locality, and the more would be the merrier.
Will it ever stop raining....that's what I want to know!
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From Ian;
"Change in f'cast emphasis due to shortwave trough pepping-up precipitation rates tonight: NAE solution has support from EC on snow into W."
"W COUNTRY Snow amounts tricky to gauge but UKMO suggest 60% prob of 5+cm for parts of Cotswolds, Wilts etc; & perhaps FoD, B&NES, Mendips."
"W COUNTRY We're catering for possibility of several cm falling (note: settling will vary!) over Wilts, Cotswolds, FoD, Mendips, poss Exmoor"
"W COUNTRY UPDATE Snow potential enhanced for tonight-Mon AM, with many seeing some falling but degree of settling on main roads less clear."
"Conversely, NAE snow distribution & amounts in S/W are not supported by UKV or MOGREPS. Hence, the NAE solution only given 60% probability."
"W COUNTRY So, uncertainty continues. Currently, snow NOT expected to form until circa 9-10pm onwards. Next further update from me at 3.30pm."
AWD........what order are these in? Are they to be read from top to bottom or bottom to top? I never know whether it's upgrades or downgrades!
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Tipping down here as usual with rain. Must admit its getting tiresome now reading all these silly posts on the mod thread promising arctic conditions and copious amounts of snow for all from imaginary distant charts that laughably never materialise.
Very well put.
Unless something exceptional happens to the "cold pool", I cannot see us having any more snow. I posted the other day that I couldn't see that we would get anything from the current precipitation and it looks like we won't.
I have tried to learn a lesson from the disappointments and that is to not get carried away with the hype, but to trust my own judgement.
Maybe something exceptional will happen, but I'm not holding my breath. The week of snow we had in January was lovely and if that was our lot for this Winter, then so be it. It was nice whilst it lasted and was more than we have had in some Winters! It seems to me that there is a trend for more snow over the past few Winters, though, and that is keeping me quite happy.
The almost continual rain, however, is a right old PITA!
Whereabouts are you? I moved from Downend to Coalpit Heath last year, so that I could be North of the M4, rather than South of it.
South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion 27/03/13 18z ------>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by noggin
Me.
Actually, chaps and chapesses, I have done a little research!
Up until yesterday, March 2013 CET was 3.1 and it doesn't look like it will do anything but fall a bit further.
March 1962 CET (to which Ian has alluded) was 2.8 and was followed by the stupendous Winter of 62/63.
The coldest March prior to that was in 1892, when the CET was 2.72. The rest of 1892 was a very cool year with an annual CET of just 8.17. December 1892 and January 1893 were also very cold...................
Based on my very unprofessional 10 minutes of research, I hereby forecast the following:
A) a cold 2013
C) a very cold Winter 2013/2014.
Hope springs eternal and all that...............