noggin
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Posts posted by noggin
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the statement implies a 7 in 8 chance that there will not be record breaking temperatures, so that should impress more.
I agree completely. The BBC newsreader who imparted this info said it as if 1 in 8 meant it was a dead cert! It's all in the delivery. (flippin' media again
)My personal view is that we are long overdue for a cooler Summer. What goes up must come down. Global warming has plateaued.
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Just to balance the early bluebells, last year the daffodils were late.
This tickled me......I'm listening to Terry Wogan and one of his correspondents just said "how come a late Spring last year was just a late Spring, but an early Spring this year is all down to global warming?"
There are many, many people out there who are just not convinced by the "information" that they are fed by the media. Nor convinced by GW, be it man-made or not.
....and the media is, after all, the source of the vast majority of information.
I feel a backlash is coming amongst the natives. They will be revolting. (as I have been for quite some time!)
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Just to balance the early bluebells, last year the daffodils were late.
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Which summer was better than 76?
I know last year was on course but didn't August scupper that.
There have been hotter months than those in 76 but not all three together if I recall correctly?
Remember it well. My arm was in plaster....very uncomfortable! Was not 75 also a corker? Mind you, man-made global warming had not been invented back then....we were all to busy prophesying some other gloom and doom. Can't for the life of me remember what it was though....... B)
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Perhaps you or Noggin can provide a rational argument, based on the numbers perferably, as to why we shouldn't read too much into a run of weather that is not just unprecedented, but way beyond the reasonable statistical bounds of being explainable as a blip in a flat climate.
Who sets the "reasonable statistical bounds"?
Who says it is unprecedented?
Has there ever been a "flat" climate?
B)
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Will the trend continue this summer? No one knows, although I suppose the odds are on it being above normal rather than below the 1971-2000 average.
John
Another way to look at it is that the longer the trend goes on, the more likely it is to change. Because nothing stays the same. Result.........colder weather.
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I would be interested to see any answer to that question, Blast.
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As much as recent events ............
Perspective should be kept as always - and over dissection does indeed fuel over speculation.
Tamara
I'm glad to hear you say this (albeit edited!) Tamara. When I saw your earlier post I really was quite concerned. I thought you were having a bit of a wobble!
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The next 4 days have an average temperature of 15.8c. So by the 30th the average temperature should be around 11.6c.
That makes it an ENORMOUS 3.7c above the 61-90 normal. Considering the last warmest April ever was just 2.6c above normal it makes at absolutely extraordinary.
How would that compare to the 91-06 "norm"?
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Blimey, what a gloomy and doomy thread this is. The climate varies. It always has done. It is all this constant dissecting of every little detail that is sowing the seeds of panic that seem to be present here. What also helps/hinders things is the internet because it allows the "panic" to spread all over the World.
Well, that's how it looks to me. There is always something that is going to destroy mankind. When I was little, the panic was about nuclear war. Now it is about the climate. What will it be when the climate panic is over, I wonder?
As sure as eggs is eggs, climate panic will be replaced by something else.
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As a CET dweller, I can confirm that we had quite a lot of rain on Monday and Tuesday. Quite a relief as I had just planted some plants.
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Well said, Jethro. Excellently put, if I may say so.
Beats my boring and tired old "it's the current bandwagon" for eloquence.
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I understand that temperatures on other planets are increasing also. Not that I have measured them myself, of course! How can that be accounted for? (the temperature increase I mean, not my not having measured them!
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Hi noggin,
I hope you are keeping well.
No. 2 for me as well. I am keeping good company with you and Mondy
Hi John,
I'm fine ta, hope you are too!
Yes, we are a small band of people, but there is no doubting of our passion in our beliefs. One day we will be proved right.
regards
noggin
IIt has also stimulated enough interest for a climate scientist to ask me to pursue similar research on opinion elsewhere, possibly leading to publication in a journal; more on that if it ever materialises.:)P
Ooooh, how exciting!
I love an opportunity to say what I think, so if you have any more need for opinions P3, just give us the nod!
Nice to see that all opinions will be valid too.
Bump.
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seems about as far away right now as must have manned space flight to prehistoric man.
By the same token, a cooldown on Earth may seem as far away to some. But manned space flight did happen.
Our climate is always warming up or cooling down. The cooldown will come.
My old climate tutor at college, somebody who was genuinely eminent in the field in the UK and had made it a lifetime's study, once said to me in response to something I asked him regarding a run of weather we were having, "...well, you know what, I don't know when it will change, but it will, and when it does it will do the opposite".See.....that's what I've been saying all along! I think I'd like your old tutor, SF
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It's the Sun wot causes it. But you knew i'd say that anyway
You took the words right out of my mouth, Mondy! I've gone for 2 too.
Mind you, I went for 2 as being the nearest to what I think. There are places in the world that are suffering from unusual cold.
Personally, I
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Now, THAT, is a scary assumption. Scientists have been studying the climate, the weather and the sun in ever greater detail for a long time ... Yet, you assume they've missed an effect of great magnitude?? Well, then, publish your findings
Pahhhhh....if there is such a word! I make no assumptions, which is totally different to assuming that they have missed something. Of course I cannot say that they have definitely missed something any more than you can say that they know everything.
NB I've tried to do a friendly smiley to show no offence intended, but I can't get the icon thing to work!
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It's highly unlikely that there's any hitherto undiscovered forcing factor at work. The flux required would be just too great to not have been spotted by now by some monitoring process or another.
But this assumes that we know everything, does it not? That's a scary assumption.
I maintain it's the Sun wot's doin' it.
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I have oft wondered about people who go on and on ad nauseum (and I am not pointing any fingers here!) about so-called "AGW". Are the ones who shout loudest the ones who expect everyone else to do something, whilst not doing anything themselves? I see people in their huge gas guzzlers, I know of people who leave all of their electrical appliances on (and complain about the size of the bills) and so on and so forth and yet they seem to be on this "AGW" bandwagon. It doesn't make sense to me.
Personally, I switch everything off as soon as it has served it's purpose. I don't have a dishwasher nor a tumble drier. I have only a small car which does about 2,000 miles a year. I don't go abroad because I have no desire to and am also terrified of flying, so I wouldn't go anywhere near a plane! I re-use and/or recycle everything I possibly can and seldom buy anything new. If the house feels cold, we put an extra layer of clothing on. I do these things not because I believe I would be contributing to "AGW" by being any other way, but because of a general desire to respect our planet and it's resources.
So, if I can be considerate to our environment whilst not being an AGWer, then I would blinking well like to see more AGWers being more "proactive" by doing stuff themselves instead of just telling everyone else to do it.
So there.
Sodding politicians in particular, take note.
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I guess it's a case of geography. Here in Bristol it hasn't really been that warm apart from Sunday. The rest of the time there has been a bit of a chill in the air, still.
(Bristol being one of the corners of the central England triangle, I believe.......)
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Yes, Mondy me old chum, it is a good site for information which the media and politicians don't want us to know about. Thank goodness that there is somewhere to which reports of "colding" can go (and there is a lot of it going on in the world......)
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Definitely a finchy-type thing. It's the wrong shape for a canary.
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You always go on the best info for the time but that 'info' has a logical 'limit' and so the further down the line the clearer the picture of things.
I think that this CO2 business has reached it's logical limit.
It's the Sun. :lol:
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NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
March 19, 2007....
Study findings were recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
ttp://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=1319
nigel
Very interesting read. My own vho is that it is the Sun that causes climatic variation. It is such a powerful thing that I cannot imagine anything else being capable of varying the climate.
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The Ongoing Warmth in the UK
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I have made my mind up. I read and listen to the media. I have heard both sides of the "argument" from the "scientific" fraternity and putting it all together with my observations and general life experience I conclude that things go in cycles and that we have just about come to the end of a natural warming phase. A cooling phase is just around the corner. These phases being attributable to the "behaviour" of the sun and our position relative to it.
Well, that's how it is for me. I know that other people have different views!