noggin
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Posts posted by noggin
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I love it when someone talks sense to me! Ice age now is a site where people that want a cold catastrophe gather to glean as much peripheral evidence as possible and post it as true science to support their, frankly, crackpot theories.
Thanks Wilson!
Paul
Give it a rest, please. If you don't like the subject, then don't post about it.
Thank you.
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Been coming down by the bucketful all night here. Still doing so. Still quite humid too.
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Now will you believe us?
If "current global warming is occurring in response to human activities", then to what do they attribute the previous hot periods?
Could be coincidence, you know. Us chucking out muck and temperatures having gone up (until recently, that is
). Perhaps people are putting two and two together and coming up with five as they are only using the methods that they know. We do not know all methods. It is much speculation. People assuming that everything must fit together and that we wonderful human beings know how it all works. We can't know it all. There is a probably immeasurable amount that we don't know.Hi, Scribbler
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But it's winter in the Antipodes...
Yes, I know. But my contacts down there have been commenting that it is "absolutely freezing", a "bitterly cold" Winter (for them, that is!)
I am a simple soul. But was not Europe particularly cold this past Winter? There was snow in Asia. The Antipodes are having a cold old time and there are my own modest observations of my climate cooling down.
I put it all together and arrive at the conclusion that any GW has now stopped and we have tipped over into a cooldown.
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Oh, and this is a La Nina kind of year yet it's, globally, still warm. Go figure.
It ain't hot in the Antipodes.
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I'm sure I saw Mondy's vehicle in a film, once.
The "real" one is quite ordinary looking from the outside, isn't it. Does it have all sorts of technical stuff inside?
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What vehicles do you use? I only ask because just up the road from me is a black van with "storm chaser 2006" on it (in green) and I wondered if it might be a netweather vehicle?
I'm just being nosey.
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The other inconvenient truth? Where most of the people actually live, it ain't getting warmer (go outside and check it out for yourself.)
Now, let the inquisition begin, the heretic hath spoken. Off with my head!!!
Regarding your entire post, Mr Smith, I couldn't agree with you more, thanks for putting it all so well. I vote for you to keep your head!
With regard to the small extract that I have quoted, I and a few others have noted/observed that our "regions" have stopped heating up and have started cooling down over about the past 3 years. Unfortunately there are some people on the forum who don't seem to think that "mere" observation counts for anything!
Also, not really apropos anything, I have noticed that the media don't refer to "global warming" so much now as to "climate change".
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I seem to recall that observation was once a critical part of scientific research! I also believe that science can often lag behind events "on the ground", for example, twenty years ago people were arguing that what we were seeing was evidence of climate change and global warming, but only now have we come to accept that the science shows exactly that.
Oh, yes! I am absolutely certain that we are now past the cusp of a cooldown for our "quarter" of the Earth and that the heat peaked during 2003. There have been so very many signs for the seeing. I really, really do not wish to cause any offence, but I wonder if sometimes scientists and mathematicians are not blinkered to an extent by their passion for their ways of doing things. Not knocking it, just standing back and observing.
I posted a few weeks ago about a professor from Oxford University who was speaking about the effects of Chernyobl (?sp) on the British Isles. With hindsight, he said that "observation" would have given a far truer picture of the effects than their statistics had given.
If that man had been in the room at the time I would have flung my arms around him and given him a great big kiss (
). I felt as if it was vindication from on high! PS John.....like Rib, I am so glad that you here and that you put things so very well. I know how I feel and I know what I know, but can't usually express it in a good and rational way!
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Many thanks to John and drgl for their posts which have expressed things so well. I concur with what they have written but have not been able to express it properly myself.........so very many thanks to you both! Count me in on this as always. :huh:
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Wonderful TWS. exactly what happens. Science and mathematics go out of the window as people try to fit the facts to their expectations.
.....and is science and mathematics what it is all about?
I have observed, over the past two and a half years that our weather, here in the South West has become markedly cooler.
Nothing to do with science, mathematics nor expectations.
True .. I found this article which states thatIt is now suspected that global warming may trigger a shutdown in the NADW, and a slowing or diversion of the Gulf Stream, which would ironically lead to colder climates throughout the UK and Northwest Europe.
So it could be a possibility, but is not happening yet.
http://www.enviropedia.org.uk/Climate/Gulf_Stream.php
..However, contrary to what I stated above, I have now found this, which says emphatically that the Gulf stream is slowing ..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,....html?gusrc=rss
I believe that it has already started.
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Because to overcome the variability that there always is from year, for every year to have - let's say - a 99% chance of being warmer than the preceding one then the rate of warming would have to be far in excess of what it is now. Someone with a better grasp of statistics than me might be able to work out what that rate is!
I understand the point that you are making (I think!), like the old Stock Market thing about it going up and down on a "short term" basis, but overall the trend being "up" (
).The same principle has to be applied to "cooling". I would be interested to know which years were considered to be the hottest, although statistics are open to manipulation/misinterpretation.....observation is the thing (as a leading scientist recently said when reviewing the effects of Chernyobl....nice to know he sees things my way
).Hi Noggin,Keeping the flag flying. Good man.
My arms are beginning to ache, John, but I will not falter, whatever the opposition throws this way!
I'm pleased to hear how cold it has been for you. :lol:
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From those figures it looks to me as if there is a cooldown happening, not a warm-up. If the globe was suffering from "warming", why are we not recording the absolute hottest temperatures since 1880? Genuine question......
PS Good Morning John......nice to see you, hope you are well!
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"Global Warming" is just the current bandwagon upon which the media and politicians are all jumping. A decade ago it was the environment (generally), before that it was the Cold War, before that it was the atom bomb. There will always be some "fright" or another. Give it another few years and some other issue will be hitting the headlines instead of "Global Warming". In any case (and in my humble opinion) it isn't "Global Warming", it's "Climate Change"......some places on Earth are heating up and some places are cooling down. Mother Nature can balance things out.
PS That's not to say we can be complacent.......we do have to respect the Earth and all it's life forms.
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I found one in my bedroom yesterday. Found a large spider in my younger daughter's bedroom last week.....I think it had been hibernating all Winter amidst the piles of errr.....ummmmm....stuff. :unsure:
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if we stop having a monthly CET, however based, and then say run it along the lines Nick seems to be suggesting, there would be no statistics at all. Certainly none that meant anything.
John
Well, I couldn't agree more. This is why I do not like statistics. They can be manipulated. I have long droned on about how observation gives a truer picture.
An example of this was in the paper the other day......a professor who had researched into the effects on humans after Chernyobl (sp?) has just said, this week, that their statistics had given a false "picture" of the effects and that they would have got a better "picture" of the effects by using observation.
I felt at one with him..... :lol:
Yes, it's a very useful record over such a long period. The point was that the raw CET figure (and the same goes for rainfall and sunshine) doesn't always give a perfect impression of the month's general characteristic. For example, just going by the CET you could imagine August 2004 being a very fine summer month with its high CET. That figure doesn't tell you however that this was due to nights being warm because of all the cloud that made it the wettest August for 40-odd years.Exactly. Statistics do not give a true picture. That is why I do not like them. Observation is what is required.
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1906-2005 (100 year rolling average): 8.1C
I think the 100 year rolling average is the best thing to go by, as it is more "general". Using "random" 30 year periods is a bit "picky".
Also, 100 years would cover all of our lifetimes, unless there are some totally ancient old crocks on here!
regards
noggin (Exonian born and bred)
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I've spotted a couple of bees (don't know which sort), a ladybird, two toads and a bloomin' fly flew into my kitchen the other day. Oh, and a moth last night.....are these "seasonal" insects?
I can't recall having seen any moths during the Winter. The heavy rain that we've had over the past few days has also brought out the worms.....hadn't seen any worms for ages.
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I'm plumping for 7.5 C.
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Didn't know which thread to post this in, so I thought I'd start a new one!
I was wondering last night whether "we" had all got lots of stuff wrong and were overcomplicating something which has a very simple answer. Seeing as scientists come up with conflicting theories I wondered if everyone was barking up the wrong tree(s) and if the reason for global climate change/shift was something totally simple:
The Earth wobbles on it's axis, doesn't it? Could it not just be that the Earth's climate responds to how much/ which bits are "getting" the most Sun? Or how close we are to the Sun? Slightly greater or lesser distance from the Sun would also mean that the heat which the Earth gets from the Sun would be received, stored and released in different ways, according to Earth's position, and this would affect climate.
As has been said before, by others, massive climate changes/shifts have ocurred in the past without any help from mankind. I just can't help thinking that maybe scientists have become so wrapped up in their own ideas and in dissecting every little morsel of information that they could be missing the blindingly obvious?
It can happen, y'know!
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I quite agree re "lies, damned lies and statistics". So much manipulation is possible to suit whatever purpose is required!
Serious question here....possibly seems silly to some, but what about windchill? The CET is just that....the CET, but it doesn't take account of the wind does it? Nor therefore, how cold it actually feels? It has certainly felt perishing cold here this Winter. Also, there has been little wind coming from the West.
Is there any official measurement and record of wind strength/direction? Is it windier now than it used to be? Do the winds tend to come from a different direction now?
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I have one daffodil just open. I have about 49 daffodils tightly shut.
I was in Royal Victoria Park in Bath last week (fabulous place!) and there were swathes of daffodil leaves everywhere. But there wasn't a speck of yellow to be seen. The leaves were up but the buds had only just nosed above ground level.
Haven't seen any forsythia in flower yet, nor flowering currant. Blimey, it's April in a fortnight!
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Can't let you retire yet!! Anyway, I'm older than you! ....
Aww, thanks old man, sorry, I meant Scribbler!
I haven't managed to see the Beeb programmes yet, but should manage to today at some point.
There is something that is driving me nuts at the moment and that is re the Summer LRF. When I have looked at the MetO experimental LRF it shows cold/average more likely. So where, oh where are peeps getting this hot forecast from?
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I was determined not to carry on with this discussion, but find myself irresistably drawn to it!
All I will say though, as a big general comment, is that the Atlantic is losing it's influence at a rate of knots and we are getting much more influence from the East. We can all speculate on effects and causes until the cows come home :blush: , but at the moment I feel all "speculated" out!
kind regards to all
a rather old noggin
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I can't recall having seen any moths during the Winter. 
Is It Just A Freak Of Nature? Or Proof Of Global Warming? As Temperatures Hit Record Highs, What’s Fuelling The Heatwave?
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
You beat me to it, Kippure........that's just what I was going to say.
My police contact said the same thing about crime rates.....that people are more frightened of crime now because it is so widely reported in the media. It's not that the crime rate has jumped much, people are just more aware of it.
....and as SNOWMAN 2006 says, people weren't complaining about GW back then.
Crikey, the climate will fluctuate. It always has done. GW is just the current bandwagon, although the media seem to be referring more and more to "climate shift" these days, rather than GW.
Probably not the right place to ask, but as I'm here.......I heard an eminent chap (forgotten his name!) on the radio the other day and he said that there were 7 climate systems around the Earth and the reason it is hot at the moment is that we are getting stuff up from the Sahara and France. I assume that these climate systems "move" a bit around the Earth rather like a sphere around a sphere, IYKWIM. If this is the case, then I cannot really see that it poses a massive problem......it will all move back again at some point. Mother Nature knows best etc.etc.
I honestly wonder whether mankind's actions have much effect at all......there are such things as coincidences. Also, although we know things, we don't know everything. In fact we don't even know how much we don't know(! ) and a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Does anyone know the names of these 7 systems as I would be interested to know. Ta.