Harsh Climate

Like I said earlier, prime risk areas are northern england/midlands/southern scotland! But a few subtle difference and the high risk areas could easily shift many miles north or south.....

Woah, the 5:25 bbc news 24 forecast was quality! ''some places will see an awefull lot of snow!'' come on,please be yorkshire! :lol:

haha, I remember that one.. It snowed beteen 8 Pm-1am before turning to rain, we recieved a foot of snow from it!

I think there will definatly be snow, just where? remains the question. Most probably on the northern side of any precipitation moveing in.... Hey your at an alltitude of over 900ft, no need to get greedy now!

lol, ned! I think this post belongs in the adult section... :lol:

Man, what Id give for to be another 500ft higher in this situation! I remember the easterly last year give us heavy wet snow that accumalated one hour and melted the next At most we had 2" of lying snow but heights of 900ft recieved about 10"!

For yorkshire/north midlands/southern scotland this is looking like a belter! dont know why you dont like it PP, in these situations durham ussually get hammered! Why you here then? Go back to knitting a jumper or whatever you like doing...

Not for me it aint, wat an improvement on the 06z!

Hmm Im starting to think that the 06z (GFS) might have been a duff run!? Each run from the the 06z is very similar and theres not 1 run that strays far away from the mean...(if you look at the esemble panel.) Anyone know if there was a lack of data/sources put into this run?

Hmm.. theres a lot of of disagreement in the models at the moment.... Its the GFS,NOGAPS,JMA V ECMWF,UKMO,GEM,FAX CHARTS POOR: GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png NOGAPS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1202.gif JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1442.gif GOOD: ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1202.gif USAF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/semb120.gif Looking at the variation in model output has cheered me up some what! There are some very big players (exluding GEM) in our favour at the moment, so it aint all over yet! But the GFS and JMA have performmed quite well recently and we do need to see the GFS get back on board as quickly as possible. I feel that this evenings output will be vital in whether or not we get a quick breakdown or not... If the ecmwf and ukmo follow in the footsteps of the last few gfs runs the chances of a quick breakdown to mild/wet weather will be about 90%+, but if the we get a good 12z run from the gfs and continued support from the ECMWF/UKMO models I think we could be in for a very eventfull weeks weather! Edit: I think the key revolves around whether or not we get a low pressure moveing near southern areas at around 78h, dragging in a feed of air from the east behind it.. And prolonging the straight southwesterlies from taking over.

''After the weekend outputs suggesting the south coast, then the south Midlands and a proggessive movement north of the atlantic front hitting the colder air - somebody somewhere is going to get a dumping?:'' Hmm.. places like eskdalmuir and Glasgow allways seem to do really well from these scenerios!

A nicely put post there :lol: I agree with many things you say there, but the major concern is that once the progged frontal systems push through, the floodgates for mild south westerlies get smashed open! (according to latest gfs/esembles that have performed pretty well this winter..) I feel that the battle might be won before it even happens! (i.e no battle at all means the iresistable force has won every time )

''but as it stands all this worrying over one run is almost laughable'' Im not baseing it on one run, its the progression from the last few runs that is most worrieng (GFS)... Also, the Ecmwf has performed poorly this winter and is generally all over the shop (so dont take any heart from that) but as you say, the UKMO is very promising so theres still hope yet.. :lol:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png I think it all goes wrong here when the little channel low/low doesnt develope, this was the cause of the winds turning easterly and maintaining the cold.. Although it would be ignorant to ignore the recent output, there is still allways the chance of the unexpected. We really need to see a good GFS12z (that redevelopes that small low) and a good ukmo, then things should be back on track.....

http://212.100.247.145/ensimages/ens.20070.../t850London.png lol, how people can see an esemble like this and say that the mild/cold battle is in the balance beggars belief!

To ignore the latest GFS outputs would be complete and utter ignorance! Lets face it, the classic rain preceeded by a few of hours snow scenario is far more likely than any other outcome! Id say 80-20% more likely as an educated guess......

Lets rememeber, when the bbc country file forecast came out, every model was fantastic baring the ECMWF.. Since then there has been a considerable change in the GFS, just look at the progression from awesome to poor in the last few runs. Plus the esembles are pretty conclusive... If the gfs 12z is similar to this, expect the ukmo to follow suit, then it is game over! Come on people, youve got to be concerned when things go bad at 74+(very short time scale on gfs.)

lol, WIB allways goes for mild! And since mild wins 95% of the time hes allways guna be right..... Doesnt take a geniouse to play his game..

Definatly fear its game over know, especially after such poor/progressive esembles! (00z) The only glimmer of hope remains the UKMO..

Theres no battle at all by the looks of the 06z. This is a very bad start to the run...

lol, I thought the 06z eas a classic! (above 500ft in west yorkshire would recieve a 3 day blizzard according to that run!)

At 96h it looks far too progressive to me, wouldnt call it very poor just yet..

Cheers for the link guys

anyone got a link for the ecmwf charts on meteociel?