ribster
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Posts posted by ribster
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Just viewed the ECM and thougt oh dear, not sure I want to drop onto the model thread, Iknow what I'll find. Sure enough, a massacre in the teddy bear workshop!
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
There are marked differences upstream between the ECM and GFS and so I wouldn't put too much faith in either output until the outputs converge on a solution.
In terms of the overall pattern as a coldie you need to cheer on the ECM, not that its anything to write home about but that we might be able to scrape some interest out of it!
Indeed, quite liking the latter stages of the ECM...
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1 hour ago, beefy201 said:
I think this is the much more likely scenario (BBC) it is funny to see such cold ramps going on when the reality is so much diffrent
I think they suggested this was likely, not guaranteed, looking at the models today would suggest there is still uncertainty.
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How anyone can say any particular model has this nailed is beyond me...
As for consistency I think some need to check the runs from the same time and compare with the same time run previous days...
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6 minutes ago, Banbury said:
too far west i'm afraid.
Assuming that chart materialises like that in 9 days time...
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
Not had time to make this post but after the 12's seems a good moment
the nwp seems v unpredictable for early December - there are solutions which bring in winter (more than frost and fog) but they are very inconsistent
it seems to me that we may have to wait for the Siberian vortex to get itself in order on a N/S axis down the meridian (as strat forecasts also have it) before we can look to get a consistent signal for the cold to head south. Whilst there remains little vortex pockets across the polar field, it seems we lack the 'oomph' to drive the cold far enough south before the jet intervenes and drives a mid lat high in our direction. Even then, we have to see what pattern exists over nw Europe and the Atlantic - it may go east, it may not quite make it across the country
that would put the most likely arrival of winter around 5 December although an earlier attempt could succeed if the ducks all fall in a row. And again, the Atlantic ridging could end up rather too close to the UK but I'm reasonably optimistic at the moment
Markedly less knowledgeable than yourself, but I've been flicking through the charts in recent days and have to agree, period 4th to 6th December keeps cropping up, time will tell, but very exciting...
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Happy to help with this, it's in my area of work...
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Quite, not really a day for running 10k was it, Wednesdays upcoming weather would have been preferable!
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4 day heatwave in the middle of the hottest month of the year - not sure it is that unusual, then it's a return to business as usual from Thursday onwards. Glorious by day, well it would be if I wasn't at work (unlike today), but far too warm by night.
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Snowing here, where did that come from. Also storm does look like it could be a little dangerous...
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57 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
I didn't know there were any 'mild' rampers?..as the weather by definition in the UK is mild most of the time
Does that stop one being an exponent of mild weather?
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Good grief, is it really mid July out there?
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OK fair enough - I will repost on Tuesday with the actual charts!! But things are normally fairly set by T120, aren't they??????
But the point is ... look how the GFS forecast over the UK changed between T192 and T120, compared with the ECM. (I haven't had time to check the rest of the Northern Hemisphere - I do have other things to do, honest - so I can't say if the GFS has moved towards the ECM or vice versa in other parts of the world)
As has already been alluded to though, still plenty of time to change at that range, and a minor change could make a big difference. More importantly, because they have both moved to a similar conclusion, doesn't mean they are correct!
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im not wishing it, thats why i said 'insane' in the model thread. Seems i ruffled a few feathers. Was only pointing out what I thought was an unusual situation but some replies seemed to imply it wasnt so. Probably just showing my lack of experience.
I believe Mr. Hammond used the word 'unusual' in the countryfile forecast, referring to a ground frost up north. So would think you were fairly accurate in referring to it as such.
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Never mind!
Doh! Apologies, I misread your post, your are correct of course!
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I often wonder what it is, exactly, folks expect from a UK summer:
Two-weeks' dry, hot weather; it's moan, whinge, whine - we need more rain. If it's anything-else; it's moan, whinge, whine - why can't I have a barbie three-times a day, every day!
What is it folks want!
Was it nice in Spain, as you can't be referring to the UK, as we have had nothing of the sort!
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In Somerset, we only had two hot days, only one of them was sunny, and no storm. So you did well
Well I was generally speaking, but specifically here, one warm day, one hot day, one cloudy warm day. Storm is yet to happen, probably tomorrow night here. But at 22c here, tomorrow will be nothing to write home about, although should be a very pleasant day...
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So three warm days and a thunderstorm it is then. Not so sure playing football in 30c was a great idea!
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its here NOW!
its simply beautiful weather... it doesnt get any better... crystal clear blue skies (but that wont last, itll become milky), hot, gentle breeze, humidity not too high... (here im talking about obvs).
LOVE IT!
Couldn't agree more, gorgeous and the main thing is not too humid, that's what I don't do too well with. Apart from some cloud/rain to contend with Thursday.
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The heatwave hadn't started yet the last I heard...
Let me know when it does, another lovely day here. Shame to be at work.
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Heatwave? Not sure what all the fuss is about. Sure, it was a lovely warm summery day today, but with a notable breeze. Very usable weather indeed. Certainly hasn't felt uncomfortable yet, which is usually the case with heatwaves. Looks like mid twenties here most of the week (which is what it was today), maybe something a little hotter on Saturday. I think some are getting carried away with themselves, lovely weather yes, but newsworthy - hardly!
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All rather underwhelming, I thought summer was on the way this week, one warm day (which was cloudy at that), not very impressive. Hopefully a good day next weds for littleuns birthday, and a decent week in July and Aug for hols.
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21C max in mid June in the SE is as run of the mill as 6C max in northern england in mid December.
Indeed, in fact some have been promising us a warm up since the third week of Feb, but always more than a week away. Anyone can post up charts at that range and say what they show, but I think that's where they fail to recognise the difference between what they show and what the weather will actually be, yet they are talked about in absolute terms. The skill is identifying the ones that will be correct. Still, it's amusing to watch I suppose...
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One or two tempers frayed it seems, as their heatwave didn't materialise, rather a couple of warm days, followed by a thundery breakdown, then a return to something quite a bit cooler, albeit 'usable' weather. I hope summer continues in this vein, with 'usable' weather all summer long. Suits me fine...
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Oh dear, I really do think some need to put things in perspective, it's fine having a weather hobby, but there really are more important things in life, get a grip!