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ribster

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Posts posted by ribster

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    18 hours ago, DCee said:

    It's like amateur dramatics society over on the model forum.

    But then they are amateurs and only looking for one outcome so have to forgive them. Some informative posts in amongst the noise though. 

    I noticed alot of negativity about the BBC temps recently but they correlated well in my area, inc the weather from days out.

    I would take the bbc weather over any forecast from the model thread any day.

    Sounds like this forum isn't for you then!

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ribster
    Nonsense

    1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    He said it’s ‘turning milder’ which the ensembles are showing support for.

     

    which planet do some folk live on ? Planet of denial ?

    He seemed to be claiming victory for something that has not occurred yet, still cold in the immediate and near future...

    No need for turd polishing, stick to the brass

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Evening all

    Another day (the sixth in succession) above 30c in downtown East Ham - we reached 33c early afternoon but a more pronounced E'ly wind sprung up and it's starting to feel fractionally more comfortable. 

    Thought I'd see where Arpege is taking us and it's very interesting:

    arpegeuk-41-27-0.png?12-17arpegeuk-41-51-0.png?12-18arpegeuk-41-75-0.png?12-18arpegeuk-41-99-0.png?12-18

    A last day of heat (30c?) tomorrow before a much cooler regime takes over for the south and east and the heat switches to the west and north on Friday and the north on Saturday.

    The 500hpa synoptics are revealing:

    arpegeuk-2-27-0.png?12-17arpegeuk-2-51-0.png?12-18arpegeuk-2-72-0.png?12-18

    This isn't your normal end to a short-lived hot spell with a front coming in from the Atlantic and sweeping in fresher air from west to east.

    In fact, this is the reverse - a complex trough to the south and east is introducing fresher air from the north east so the residual warmth gets pushed back west and north west while the cooler air takes over the east and south. Very unusual synoptics for the end of a prolonged hot spell.

    Next week is all about what the Atlantic LP will do - fans of heat will be looking for it to stall out west - 12Z GFS OP didn't suggest that, perhaps the 12Z ECM will.

    Yes a very subtle difference in the feel of the air in this locale this evening. A change is afoot...

    Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

    I haven’t given the Mighty Navgem an outing for a while so here it is . It’s much slower to my eye anyway in clearing the heat . 
     

    incidentally has anyone noticed that recently the navgem’s uppers has fallen largely in line with the other models?  Perhaps an upgrade? ( Ahem ) 

    I see a post or Two claiming Summer is over . I suppose we can write off Winter too whilst we are at it . What Nonsense .

    48A606ED-2F14-40AA-B305-338F724876F8.png

    B95AAF69-E428-4E11-8C8C-9833636B8C3C.png

    BEC4CD5C-B898-476A-AD68-D0B75898620E.png

    40FAF902-2FF7-42B7-9088-45AD169AFF1A.png

    Can't be that wide of the mark, 21 days to go?

    Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all

    33c here in lowland East London and looking at Arpege, has it backed off some of the really high values forecast a day or so back?

    arpegeuk-41-32-0.png?07-12arpegeuk-41-57-0.png?07-13arpegeuk-41-87-0.png?07-06

    First two are from the 06Z run, last one is from the 00Z.

    The curiousity is the heat being "confiend" to the southern coastal counties suggesting an onshore flow for eastern areas and that keeping London fractionally cooler. 

    nmm_uk1-31-36-0.png?07-11

    The WRF 06Z also suggests a change in the heat profile from the more traditional broad push north of the classic plume to a more sharply defined event for the far SE.

     

    Yes, one day wonder here, temp for today slightly revised down and more so for next four days, before dropping away further.

    Model output discussion - into July 2020

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    As per usual, the runs are nowhere as bad as some of the predictions allegedly based on them... But the most bizarre of the lot, is expecting charts, for Day 14, to verify; by that time, NWP forecasts are almost always nonsense. Think of all those much-hyped wintertime Snowmageddon scenarios that fail to materialise?

    We live in neither Siberia nor Abu Dhabi!:oldlaugh:

    Indeed, the distinctly average theme continues, but as you say, there's nae wrong with that. Despite a lot of expostulating to convince one way or the other, that's the way of things currently...

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - into July 2020

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Indeed, Karl, the GFS 00Z is not as bad as all that; some sort of ridging in evidence, at least. And, what's so dreadful about 'average' anyway?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And, as the ensembles show, there's a lot going on; though, in these parts at least, perhaps not enough in the rainfall department?:unsure2:

    t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

    t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

    NH Profiles:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-096.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    Nothing at all, loving average, long may it continue!

    • Like 3
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