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ribster

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Posts posted by ribster

    Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

    Weather is actually so much better than I expected, the sun really is getting its warmth back! When your not in the breeze, it’s pleasant 

    Where are you, Cyprus? Just been out, snowing in the wind, 3 layers and gloves on, sun barely made an appearance. Yesterday was pleasant, as was this time last Monday when it was 20c warmer!

    • Like 1

    Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ribster
    typo

    23 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    Absolutely sickening charts for next week. Getting very frustrated browsing the model thread at the moment with some people actually rejoicing over it. What is wrong with some people? The last 3 days of March were truly stunning- blissful. Yet there were almost no posts about it beforehand and a total obsession with this horrendous cold spell that is coming next week.

    Au contraire, delightful stuff *rubs hands with glee like a maniac while stroking a white cat and studying a map of the uk* Muaaahahaha! It is only early April for gods sake - isn't snow statistically more likely at Easter than Christmas anyway? You'll get your hot fix soon enough. Personally I'm counting the days until 21st June...

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    No I think you missed the point of my original post that you quoted.

    You can't deny that there could be some significantly warm temperatures on Tuesday which is nailed on now.

    No matter what the verification stats say, there is always a degree of uncertainty more than 5 days out.

    You'd think the warm spell wasn't happening if you were stumbled across this forum with no knowledge of the models.

    20C+ in March outside the SE is more unusual than a max temp in the mid to high single figures in early April which is what will probably happen.

    Indeed, it will make it feel all the more cold later in the week, thanks to the brief warm up, proper shock to the system! Mind you, cold enough out today on the bike, that wind has some bite!

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    You seem fascinated by potential frost damage- your predictions of damage to the daffodils during the February spell were wide of the mark.

    The daffodils were thriving around here only days after that cold spell finished.

    Daffs thriving or otherwise, the outlook appears to be a brief warm up early next week, then a significant cool down over Easter, especially relative to the early part of the week. As it happens, there are Daffs here still not in flower, they may decide to wait until after Easter...

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    Cold in the east perhaps but it may well be milder in western areas than it is currently. It feels pretty cold and blustery in NW England right now. The last couple of runs from the GFS and ECM have backed away from the idea of any seriously cold air making it to our shores.

    I have a feeling it could end up being a fairly nondescript spell of weather next week with lighter winds but probably a lot of cloud around. Not great for anyone to be honest and certainly nothing to write home about in terms of cold temps.

    Well if that's the case for cold, its doubly so for warmth, keep it coming please!

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    There's always a beast in FI, well nearly always. I never take much notice past +240. In my opinion it would actually be healthy not to have beyond +240. 

    For the next 10 days it seems the weather is set to be mild. Double digits in the south and virtually frost free, especially in the south.

    Interesting take on things, not sure how there can always be a beast in FI, in fact not sure there's any talk of a beast anyway. Of more significance is perhaps the rain in the west, I suspect they don't give a jot whether its 7c or 12c.

    • Like 1

    February cold spell discussion and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 13/02/2021 at 22:08, Scorcher said:

    I really don't rate the extremity of the cold as being anything special around these parts.

    The strong wind has prevented temperatures dropping that much by night. Nights have been cold without being anything remarkable.

    Every day has edged above freezing as well.

    The most impressive thing for me has been the wind chill. Hard to recall such a combination of cold, dry air with a consistently strong wind before. Certainly not something I want to experience again any time soon.

    Good riddance to this intriguing but very unpleasant spell of weather.

    Roll on some summer rain!

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ribster
    Typo

    8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Yeah its cold enough on the ECM.

    Bigger problem is it will be much drier for the south on this run, probably south of the Wash-Liverpool there'd be very little snowfall if the 12z ECM is right. Probably will be some, but its going to be modest at best.

    Miles away in weather terms as you well know, so likely to be quite different on the day. 

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    I'm confused -you can't be more than 30 miles from me yet I've barely seen any snow this winter.

    Don't think you meant confused, snowed as recent as yesterday and 4 times before, of course it didn't settle or amount to anything. Point I was making is that it's been cold and below average. Every time I've heard it's the wrong side of marginal it's snowed.

    • Like 1

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ribster
    Gr

    10 minutes ago, DCee said:

    Goes to show how out of touch those warnings are. It's all rain.

    Floods yes, snow no, away from northern areas above 300m for an hour.

    I'm calling the end of winter for Jan and first week of feb. Thereafter who knows, but trends suggest more of the same.

    Do you ever change the record, we have been and are still in cold spell, had umpteen frosts, 5 days of falling snow and looks to go cold again after a brief blip, that's just here. Never mind what's been going on further north. Anyone would think we have been in mild South Westerlies since 1st Dec!

    • Like 1
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