Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

ribster

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    814

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Posts posted by ribster

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Steel City Skies said:

    Given the rest of the output it is a fair shout to judge the GFS as being too progressive... a trait it is known for after all. Adjusting for that, it could well be a 40C run with those temperatures. As others have said though, with the timings it has... what insane overnight minima! 😮 

    Noting that the UKMO is less progressive which is unsurprising.

    I thought that usually applied to entrenched cold air, this definitely isn't that. Hopefully it gets blown to kingdom come!

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    I'm looking beyond the projected intense heat, indications where we may be heading latter part of July. Always good to look at the jetstream profile forecasts for a broad indication of likely direction of travel. Whilst these often fluctuate at long timeframes 7 days plus, they can be a good barometer for general expected conditions, i.e. will we be locked on the warm side of the jet or not, where is energy transferring to, the northern arm, is there a split flow on the way, how zonal may it be etc..

    Looking at the immediate future you can see the cut off low feature and weak southern arm languishing off Portugal going nowhere with a weak jet riding to the north of the UK, by mid week next week, the low has moved north into the UK, and a slow transition then takes place with a much more invigorated jet taking a crash course for the UK, and eventually we go on the colder side, indeed looks quite a typical flow, ridge and trough pattern and atlantic dominated. Traditionally the jet moves into gear later July, mind since Dec 2020 it really has been a weak entity. My guess is the azores high will remain a strong feature but much further west, more of a mid atlantic high allowing frontal systems to move in from the NW from time to time, and these will have more gusto about them than recently, ties in with La Nina base state for second half of summer.

    Might it be a good time to create a focus on the shorter term - heatwave thread, and allow this one to go back to longer range model watching, I fear it is fast becoming lets show charts showing most intense heat, and broader picture and longer term forecast watching not really being given much attention.

    Amen to that, thank-you.

    • Like 4

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ribster

    Lots of cloud and wind this summer, which has taken edge off temps and made evenings feel cool. Someone said Beeb/Met slow to catch up with weekend temps, 22c/9c forecast here tomorrow, is that hot? Not going to be very wrong at less than 24 hours. Might get a couple of days 29/30 in mid- July pffft

    The heat haters club 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Don said:

    Not sure the average conditions will last long before the heat returns though?!

    Looks pretty average to me, certainly all that is on offer currently is a one day wonder. Plenty of summer to go yet though, so no doubt there will be some further episodes of heat, but mostly shortlived I imagine.

    • Like 2

    The heat haters club 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's not been hot yet, not sure what the fuss has been all about, it's been cool by late afternoon under the cloud.

    Not a fan of heat, but I can tolerate a one day wonder which will be blink and you'll miss it, better still it's a significant change the day after, and a few days later it's the solstice and we can begin the long and slow decline into shorter days - wahoo!

    • Like 4

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, knocker said:

    I have been reading post after post that give the distinct impression that if you take 'chasing cold' out of the equation there is nowt interesting about meteorology/weather. Quite depressing and frankly very boring.

    I don't think that's the implication at all, although granted at this time of year that's the type of weather most are perhaps looking for? Certainly not looking for a monsoon and storm force winds anyway...

    Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The gem was the first to latch onto this scenario and if this is right,...all hale to the gem

    this has got to be the best model watching since 2010(i was a newbe then and was just lurking),...this is fantastic stuff

    but i have to say but on the current models that the south may not favour at this point,but and i say but again,...i have witnessed over the years that systems tend to head further south as we get closer to T0,but,...ha ha ,...every year is different

    i do feel that looking at the NH profiles over the last few days the tpv is looking more and more shattered into ,...well oblivion 

    heights into the pole smashing the trop(not induced by the strat) into mid lats,where they land the golden snow ticket will deliver.

    No golden snow for me cheers

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    I must have missed that. What "completely ramping up" do you mean? Can you give examples?

    This is the model output thread. In the model output over the past week or so, there were (and still are on many GEFS 12z perturbations and also in EPS clusters) height rises near Scandinavia.
    Since Scandi Highs are usually an important ingredient for winter weather, that is being closely monitored by us.

    I've read every post on this thread, and I don't recall anyone saying that we were for sure about to enter a severe cold spell or something.
    All agree it's going to be colder than average, and surprises are still inside the range of possibilities. That's all and nothing changed.

    We are still in uncertainty about what will happen over the next week, also highlighted by that Met Office video, so no need for premature conclusions, or for ramping up a mild GFS FI.

    Completely and utterly agree with this, been lurking this season for a while, as I often do, and I've seen nothing of the sort. All good stuff so far, long may it continue...

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2

    Model output discussion 11th July onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by ribster
    Typo

    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    People were looking well beyond 144 hrs for this upcoming spell?

    If it's there in the modelling it's there to be discussed.

    Indeed, only yesterday there was talk of this not being a few days affair, instead 10 to 14 day hot spell I believe. Which is no more guaranteed than 10 to 14 days of the opposite. So if +144 can be discussed for that, then surely it can be discussed when presenting an alternative view?

    Model output discussion 9th April onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Personally I think it's slightly misleading to call the outlook 'poor'.

    Of course we want 2018 style high pressure domination but it could be a whole lot worse than what the ops are showing at the moment.

    I'd agree, far from poor, the models have a certain je ne sais quoi to them, best model watching since I don't know when. We are also the right side of the solstice, smashing!

×
×
  • Create New...