i'm not saying that the spurious 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter isnt acceptable, but for the benefit of us mere mortals, wouldn't it be be better if the met office backed up this forecast with some reasoning. ok, its clearly based on an average from past years, and therefore, lets face it, it's mostly a guess. i do wonder if these lrf's are purely to grab headlines, and frankly, recently, they're grabbing all the wrong ones