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Let's just face it, winter's over in the UK. i have daffodils almost ready to come into bloom it's been so mild, bushes and hedges are budding. i just had a week ski-ing in the Alps, amazing, i advise net weatherers to go and get their snow fix in places where snow is reliable and enjoyable!

the north downs can have a similar effect, shielding the london basin from the worst of rainfall / snowfall from events from the south. tends only to have an effect with light rainfall events though it is noticeable.

it will be interesting how far inland this gets. or whether it will cross into the gulf of carpentaria and strengthen, along to darwin? looking at the satellite pics, it appears there may be another storm brewing in the western pacific. i love australia, have been a few times, have relatives in adelaide but havent been to queensland yet. maybe i will go in the next dry season!

it has been quite wet across australia in the 9 months, even inland in the vast deserts. the huge lakes which sometimes occur when rain falls in the interior have made an appearance again. australia has a very interesting climate straddling semi temperate , tropical and desert zones. it has long been noted that the climate runs in wet/dry cycles, sometimes lasting hundreds of years. The start of European settlement coincided with a wet period. more recently, it has been dry. perhaps it is turning again.

i think this is supposed to be a little further north than the previous flooding event. hopefully it will make landfall in a sparsely populated area, it is a huge country with miles of deserted coastline so they may be lucky and miss the worst i suppose.

very worrying indeed for northern queensland. i fear there might be a huge amount of destruction and some loss of life, they simply aren't used to cat 5's smashing into them with full force.

Let's face it, Piers Corbyn has been wrong wrong wrong with his January snowstorm forecast. Winter's over.

Everyone's getting so depressed in the model thread, its rather sad. Surely winter isnt "over". Glad i am off to the Alps skiing next week!

From the Daily Express! WINTER is poised to make a dramatic return with plunging temperatures tightening their grip on Britain and northern Europe, leading forecasters said last night. The US firm that predicted the big freeze of 2009-2010 as well as the recent pre-Christmas arctic conditions is now warning that we are in for another bitterly cold spell. Weather Services International says that while most of Britain will be mild for much of February, winter will make a chilly comeback in March and last through into April. The key factor is a change in what is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the atmospheric pressure phenomenon which blocked milder weather from reaching the UK before Christmas. This left Britain prey to a stream of cold from the Arctic, before the NAO changed bringing us higher temperatures just before Christmas. Last October WSI experts forecast that we faced a colder than normal winter, with two cold spells – at the beginning and end of the season. At the time it said the figures used in its predictions were “at or near record levelsâ€. December turned out to be the coldest on record with temperatures sinking as low as -21.1C in the Highlands and much of the country brought to a standstill for days by heavy snowfalls. As the coldest weather for six years hit New York yesterday, the US experts said the Arctic airflow will be turned on again. WSI chief meteorologist Dr Todd Crawford said: “We think that this more atmospherically relaxed pattern will persist well into February, confining any below-normal temperatures to northern regions. “At some point later in February or early March, we do expect a return to more strongly negative NAO conditions. “At that point, we expect a return to more severe and widespread below-normal temperatures across much of Europe, lasting well into spring.†He warned: “The biggest uncertainty for the February forecast is that the strong negative NAO pattern will return more quickly than we currently expect. “We are monitoring these developments daily going forward, and will be sending out alerts if we see any signs of the colder negative NAO pattern re-emerging.†The Met Office no longer issues public long-range forecasts after a series of errors that included predicting a “barbecue summer†that turned out to be a damp squib. However it says that it warned the Cabinet Office in October of a very cold winter, particularly in the first few weeks. Its monthly prediction up to late February is for cold dry weather in the South and milder wetter weather in the North-west. It says temperatures today may reach up to 8C (46F) but it will become colder later this week and over the weekend as high pressure settles over the UK. That will leave most areas confined to a daytime maximum of around 3C (38F) falling to -2C at night, with fog, frost and a chance of snow flurries in the South. WSI, which provides forecasts for many top US corporations, bases its forecasts on meteorological readings from around the world plus a comparison with similar weather patterns in the past. The forecast of a return of winter will raise fears of the travel chaos seen in late November and through much of December when rail, road and air were badly disrupted. Heathrow was virtually closed for five days, ruining the Christmas travel plans of tens of thousands of passengers. The disruption was so bad that the Commons Transport Select Committee is to hold an inquiry which will include scrutiny of weather forecasts and whether they were acted on.

i hope so , i am desperate for Ian Brown to have the smile wiped off his face. He relishes mild so much, and winding up most of the members who want snow.

quiet on the model thread, wish there was some more interesting winter weather to look forward to! seems like the weather is taking time out after such an extreme December.

the usual human interest stuff so far. rather light on the meterological details. "ooh , i was pregnant, couldnt get out the house to give birth it were so cold" says 17 year old chav called Jade. could be better to be honest, lots of padding.

Flash Warnings issued : London & South East England: Bracknell Forest Brighton + Hove E Sussex Kent Medway Reading Slough Surrey W Berkshire Windsor + Maidenhead Wokingham Heavy Rain 2345 Mon 17 0800 Tue 18 Heavy rain will move eastwards through southern counties of England late this evening and into Tuesday morning, giving 15 mm of rain in three hours, with overall totals likely to exceed 30 mm locally. Given saturated ground there is a risk of localised flooding. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the latest Environment Agency, Floodline, and Flood Warnings in force. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads. Issued at: 2142 Mon 17 Jan

rather unexpected this very heavy rain, its like a repeat run of this morning! hoping for a flash or two......

Yes, i cycled through it to work! Ugh! There have been several big soakings for London since new year. Maybe the weather is going to settle down now. Is it just me or do we get more of these intense rainstorm events nowadays then say 10 years ago? London is more known for light drizzle than hours and hours of frontal rainfall but we seem to get it more now. From lookig at the charts though, and what some are saying in the model thread, we can forget about snow for the rest of the winter. To be honest, i've had my fix , December was so special , if we got no more i wouldnt be annoyed.

Notably wet today, not seen quite as much standing water and waterlogged parks, etc for a while. The cloud base was around 300 feet most of the morning with the sksycrapers at canary wharf and the city, and even the dome of st pauls obscured by the low cloud. January is turning out quite wet to date in London. We've had a number of big soakings since New Year.

big squall line running through, over w end at moment i bet

Gosh it looks rather menacing out there ( i am in east end).

someone needs to get perspective!

In S London,where i've lived the past 15 years, it has to be this November/December 2010. No other period has delivered so much or lasted so long. Pre that, it has to be Feb 1991, which delivered 50cm+ of level snow in Yorkshire where i lived at the time. That was the most snow i'd seen in the UK, it lasted 3- 4 weeks on the ground.

13 degrees today! we couldnt be further from a cold spell if we tried!

This is sad. He is without a doubt the most the straightforward in his explnaations of the weather. He doesn't patronise, he is clear and specific in his presentation style. I don't know if anyone else has the same problem as me, with some of the forecasters, i simply automatically switch off when they start speaking and the end of the forecast arrives and i suddenly snap out of it and think "damn - what was the forecast again?" With Rob you never get that. He holds your attention. It's a great skill and a great loss that we're losing it from our screens.

Very interesting Mr Data. Shows that mild winter months are not a modern phenomenon.

I agree with this. Part of the enjoyment of the model thread is that members old and new can post and join in. The atmosphere in the new thread might be sterile and the fun and random spontaniety might go out of the model thread. I agree that there can be irritating posts for the mods to delete, but they do a good job and as long as they keep control (as they always seem to ) yes there will be some "chaff" posts but come on - its not that annoying to read someone's uneducated "stab" at the models alongside someone more expert. I'm not calling for a free for all with the model thread as no-one wants another BBC Snowwatch but i think having a "club" of self selected experts in a separate thread might be a mistake.

I cycled for an hour through that stuff this morning! How i laughed..... looks like round 2 has arrived just in time for the evening rush hour. Another saturation beckons. Yes i think people are on the wind up too, thankfully they are all slapping each other on the back in the "any sign of mild" thread. Hopefully they will have egg on their faces in a few days! Now we all have to bear Darren Bett's sickly "at least it will be mild" smile over the next few days as we peer through the semi-darkness at the rain lashed, miserable streets.