[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

For sure, I have an eye on winter now!.. and P25 GEFS 12z certainly caught my eye! … hey, it’s only 87 days to Christmas innit!  

You know nothing Jon Snow!

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

On 27/08/2023 at 20:12, Frosty. said:

Whilst I’m very aware that ex tropical storms are in the mix to potentially disrupt our upstream / downstream weather pattern in September …this is still a very decent longer term GEFS 12z mean which is reflected by these rather dashing perturbations! you may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one!  

 

 

Wow, posted this on 27th August, just goes to show, sometimes…dreams do come true!!! .. I omega blocks!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

I’m really liking this omega weather pattern..but will someone please tell young Sidney..it’s autumn now!    

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Wow, seems I’m ploughing a lonely furrow this evening but anyway, tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, at least initially indicates a generally changeable outlook I think it’s fair to say but there is a significant improvement further down the line, at least further south for a time, and with scope for better times beyond day 10 too!…baby steps towards a decent start to the meteorological autumn!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Whilst I’m very aware that ex tropical storms are in the mix to potentially disrupt our upstream / downstream weather pattern in September …this is still a very decent longer term GEFS 12z mean which is reflected by these rather dashing perturbations! you may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one!  

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

I’m happy with the longer term GEFS 12z mean!…I would be happier if it was for mid summer.. BUT.. at least it suggests there is potential for some decent, dare I say potentially summery weather in September! ️  

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Tonight’s longer term ECMWF 12z ensemble mean also suggests a gradually improving outlook by or soon after the turn of the month / season?…at least across the southern half / third of the u k?. which also currently appears to be the longer term prognosis of the experts?! ️  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Ok..long way off ..BUT the extended GEFS 12z mean does indicate a gradually increasing chance of high pressure becoming established in the vicinity of the u k during the very early stages of the meteorological autumn?! ️  

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Ok..is it my fault this summer hasn’t been so great..hmmm..hmmm?…anyhoo.. tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean does improve.. for a time at least! .. ..phew!

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[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

OK.. I’ve had a drink..is that a crime? ? … anyway, I’ve salvaged the GEFS 12z.. I think?.. …. Why do I bother..pfft .. roll on winter…hiccup! …

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

For sure, there’s a marked improvement in the GEFS 12z mean during the second half of next week before things become broadly more westerly…looking further ahead, perhaps something of a north / south split regarding late summer? …anyway, I guess anything would be better than the last 5 weeks or so..hmmm?  

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

WOW.. …2 months since I posted, just shows how things have gone since that amazing June!.. anyway, september could be nae bad according to the cfs?  

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean steady as she goes!!!warm and humid!!!!!

Indeedy-doody, nae bad innit, especially for the sarf east! …this is a great start to summer for the majority !, just imagine if winter starts as well as this, coldies will be in seventh heaven! .. stop dreaming  frosty!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Not much to say really, the models again look generally great today, in this case, the ECM 12z operational..for early summer..Fab-u-Lous..cup runneth over for summer fans so early!..nuff said!

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Looking at tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean pretty much throughout..I like it a lot!..indeed, this is a very good start to summer, hope I can say the same thing about winter come December!  

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Casting the GEFS 12z net out further into mid June, there is / are some good signs there for sure.. put it this way, I’m more confident about summery weather in June than I am about wintery weather in December…go figure!  

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean looks rather good to me throughout!?..a decent start to what will hopefully be a great summer…fingers crossed ..early signs are positive in my opinion!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Fully backed by its ensembles. Winner!

Indeed, fingers crossed …hoping for a jolly decent early summer for good old blighty!!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

I can’t speak for anyone else but I quite like what the Gfs 12z operational shows further into June (early summer)… anyone agree?  

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Hey guys, just a quickie from moi, the latest models indicate quite summery conditions but with significant regional variations......anyhoo..the general idea is high pressure to the north or thereabouts and low pressure to the south or thereabouts... Wow, after months of silence..it was worth it..or was it?.. Yikes..too late now.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

The GEFS 12z mean looks more benign in late March?!.. dare I say, more spring like?…  .hey, let’s look forward to spring proper now!..winter was mostly a sham!..let’s hope for a decent spring  which evolves into a great summer…   

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Fingers crossed for P6!!!!!!!…roll on spring!…ah, it already is spring!  

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I cannae keep up with you lot! ..but for what it’s worth, I’m liking tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean for the first half of next week..beyond that, let the chips fall where they may?! …good luck to you all! ..Churchill has his woolly hat on.. so something is afoot!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

For sure there’s been some interesting output today, some extended output shows the effects of the ssw for sure! from a purely coldie point of view!.. I hope these longer term perts are on the ball! …of course I want snow.. snaw.. hey, we may not have to wait that long!.?… later next week could be interesting!!! …  

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

This winter is crushing my soul!!!…but don’t give up, there’s still hope! …The GEFS 0z does show some interest longer term although  I currently feel a benign anticyclonic end to winter / start to spring is the form horse …?