[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I like P19!….actually there are a few very good perts in there, perhaps there’s something for coldies to look forward to around the turn of the month?!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

It is my unshakable belief that the Cfs 12z is on the right track longer term… SSW Bingo!!!!   

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean long term, there’s still no sign of anything wintery.. yet!..but a few perturbations do show hints of hope for coldies!…I honestly believe the very disappointing current and near future output will eventually change into something more exciting in the not too distant future, but more patience is required in the meantime.. if it doesn’t, role on spring!  

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Hey guys, I’m frankly disgusted by this winter, largely it’s been disgusting for coldies!..but now I’m looking for signs of hope, March is often colder than the winter months of Dec Jan Feb..pathetic innit!.. but a fact!!!! ..anyway, fingers crossed this much trumpeted   SSW will salvage something from the mangled wreckage of winter 22 / 23! .. in early spring!     

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

But it too early, this SSW will be a major event and it might take as long as 4 weeks before it impacts on us. It may not be obvious for a while yet, but could develop within days.

Its unlikely that itll be picked up accurately in FI , but something is likely to develop t240-t360 as opposed to t360+ . The events of 2013 and 2018 prove that we can have the most Wintry weather in March when we have a SSW.

I agree with mush..i mean mushy, there's a lag effect don't you know...if not.. Roll on Spring..innit:)..me and mushy go back many years...he's a Great poster

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

P13 turned into a peach.. …I will be so happy if we….!!!  .. fingers crossed this SSW delivers us from this EVIL winter!!!  

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 hours ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Have a gr8 Weekend..and be cool....you be cool...everybody be  

Awesome post as always Matt!!!…yea I’m cool.. hopefully I will soon be cold!..very cold! .. p13 pretty please.. weaker polar vortex.. yes please.. save our winter.. please!!!!  

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

P26 gives me faint hope that the end of this very poor meteorological winter / start to spring might deliver something for all us long suffering coldies???!!!!! fingers crossed this SSW amounts to something for our little dot on the map before it’s too late!

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

The GEFS 12z mean doesn’t support this whatsoever, but hey, I’m an optimist hoping for a nice late surprise in this pathetic winter!…don’t give up on us!!  

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I’m all in with P4 GEFS 12z… WOW Frosty, you’re as cold as ice!..you’re move mr bond!  

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Wow, I wasn’t going to post again this so called winter.. pfffffft, I had seriously given up …BUT you never know according too the GEFS 6z!!!.. maybe Feb will have a sting in its tail..?.. roger, over and out! … if not..roll on spring, the sun is getting higher every passing day.. you don’t say! ..  

 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

I admire those on here who post day in day out despite the utter dross this so called winter is producing, it’s not for me thanks muchly but hats off to those who keep plugging away looking for winter!..anyway, the later stages of the GEFS 12z show some interest for us desperate coldies!…I’m not a frequent poster anymore, I can’t stomach these pathetic u k winters but if there’s some cold potential?, I will pop in occasionally!..chow!   

 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Hey Guys, I’m only interested in cold / snow in winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.. is this even  winter?…I think not!..anyway, P5 GEFS 12z would help a bit! … I’m thinking we don’t have winters anymore, just a perpetual autumn before jumping into spring.. anyone agree?

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

P17 got better and better....wow, I wanna frame it and stick it on my wall forever! ️….yes, it was just a dream, right Pam?!

 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

We’ll always have Paris!…nooo. We’ll always have P17!  

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Happy New Year all..just looked at the GEFS 6z and I gorra say there’s a fair modicum.. ..of cold zonal potential in there!..of course I would love / adore a raging Easterly…but at least some cold would be better than constant mild mush ?…am I right.. or ….. hey at least bungle agrees!    

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

For sure, a few GEFS 12z perturbations piqued my interest regarding further into Janvier! …anyway, enough of that..all together now, for auld lang syne..etc, etc!…    ..hiccup..I’ve started early!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Happy New Year Gang!.. …well it is in some parts of the world  already! …anyway, enough small talk already!..the GEFS mean is rather tragic for coldies, a mix of cool / mild zonal, generally unsettled broadly westerly flow, some transient ridging producing quieter interludes…in a nutshell ..a complete waste of time for the so called height of winter…but we coldies are used to this carp by now aren’t we!? …anyway, let the celebrations begin!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Is it any wonder I’m hardly posting?…there’s hardly anything worth posting from a coldie perspective!, it’s awful..just 2 GEFS 12z perturbations that show anything cold!….anyway.. Happy New Year Gang! … yes I’m a bit premature! … I want Narnia dammit!  

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

For the love of god please let me blame lack of balloon data for the longer term GEFS 12z mean !?…pfft, woteva merry crimbo everyone… despite the models.. I’ve had a great crimbo day! ..here’s hoping Janvier will improve.. for coldies!

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Merry Christmas all, not posting much, same disappointment as this time last year, total model implosion.. not much else to add really, the long term GEFS 12z mean sums things up pretty well and is par for the course for NW coldies!..anyway, I live in hope that Janvier will eventually bring something wintery to Blighty’s shores! …over and out!  

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm looks flat as pancake at 120..horrible output next week 10 days I see

I got confused for a second there, i was looking at your profile pic...which isnt flat!

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I never thought I would beg / pray for a NW’ly..ah well.. it is crime innit!…honestly, this is just like this time last year (deja ..vavava.. va vu! ..when the mean imploded!..lightening has seemingly struck twice.. unfortunately?! …but we are slaves to what the models show, all the fancy talk (terminology) doesn’t mean diddly squat when the models pull the rug from under us?…however..it hasn’t happened yet so perhaps I’m being presumptuous?!..  

I meant crimbo!...sadly there isnt enough time to edit mistakes!..so sad.....merry christmas..hohoho

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

I never thought I would beg / pray for a NW’ly..ah well.. it is crime  innit!…honestly, this is just like this time last year (deja ..vavava.. va vu! ..when the mean imploded!..lightening has seemingly struck twice.. unfortunately?! …but we are slaves to what the models show, all the fancy talk (terminology) doesn’t mean diddly squat when the models pull the rug from under us?…however..it hasn’t happened yet so perhaps I’m being presumptuous?!..  

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

I wish everyone all the luck in the world for a rarest of rare white Christmases.. ..most sincerely.. there’s a chance..! ✌