Yozzer

Right Mods, do we have ramper's corner open, and in anticipation of it all going ti#s up for the 12z onwards, the reappearance of whingeing corner???

And here we go again! GFS has bipolar disorder at the moment, certainly making manic depressives out of many on here. Although we've seen eye candy in FI many times before, there does seem to be much more persistence in the appearance of these types of scenario recently. Maybe, just maybe... Anyway, off to stock up on supplies now!!!

I've long suspected that the UKMO and ECM models are twins, Siamese ones probably...

Just been for walk round Ballater golf course with dog. Yes its 10pm, but bright moonshine and snow cover here... Anyway, reckon Aboyne might get to -8.4, with Braemar bottoming out at -10.3, sometime between 6 and 7am.

Nice view of the sea ice beginning to form at Barrow Point Alaska. My link

Look forward to the photos.South of England possibly in for a severe event Thurs/Fri with cold air meeting a low pressure system. Someone down south is going to get a lot of snow, wouldn't be surprised to see 12-18" somewhere due to this, on top of what's already there.

Maybe that's why there is a need for a service called weatherunderground.com??? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Storm now really only for Canadian maritimes, so look out Debs. Not sure of your exact location, but expect up to 12" snow from this one, and could get pretty windy too. As you've probably heard, the whole of the south east of England has ground to a halt with a few inches of the white stuff. Even most of the underground didn't run today because of the snow! Work that one out if you can...

Hi Saperlo, and welcome to the forum (i.e. the madhouse!). I lived in Ballater (the Pass) for a while, left about 2 years ago to move to Perthshire. Before that was in Huntly for over 20 years. Likely to move back to Ballater when house here is sold, so nice to have a fellow enthusiast locally. Keep in touch. You should get a decent dump of snow up there from this.

Yes, send for Flash Gordon, Saviour of the Universe!! Anyway, to respond to a few posts on here about likely locations for snow, I feel that the immediate east coast might be disappointed due to the surface being warmed by the North Sea, temps are currently around 6 or 7C. Inland and with a little altitude however will be a different story as thicknesses, dew points and 850 temps are well suited to snowfall. I would say any land over 100m is at risk, and over 20 miles from the coast even lower ground would get it. As far as favoured locations and amounts, jury still out, but I would say the Eastern Grampians, as well as the Border hills and Perthshire Hills are near certs for a bit of a pasting.

Well, looking at the models this morning, there is indeed a shift back westwards, but not to the original track (yet!), with DC, NYC and most of New England and the Canadian Maritimes inc Debs, getting a bit of a hammering Tues/Weds. Watch this space...

The way the models are now shunting the storm east, not sure it will have much impact at all apart from extreme eastern Canadian maritimes. The models, esp the GFS initially showed phasing of two systems which would have symbiotically 'bombed' along the east coast, but they are now pretty much out of sync, so unlikely to be much of an event at all really. Don't think 40cm is likely I'm afraid. Henry Margusity is back-tracking big style today. Ouef sur le visage methinks! Got a feeling the UK cold snap is being a bit over-egged as well, probably not surprising given that the worst will probably be hitting the South at rush hour Monday morning with drifts almost up to the top of the kerbstones! Gritters will arrive sometime in June no doubt. Prob 5-10cm for parts of Southern half of England, and later further north. We really shouldn't have the problems that we no doubt will south of the border...

May be some fun and games in the Borders Mon/Tues, but I don't think the initial easterly will deliver much elsewhere apart from the Grampians. Scotland's chance may come later on IF, and it's a big IF, a cold plunge comes down from n or n/e, depending on the eventual position of the l/p to the south. If it trundles back east, ending up with the pv over Scandinavia, big time for many! Personally, I hope it doesn't 'cos I'm off to New England next weekend, and it would just be my luck for the flight from Edinburgh to get delayed or cancelled, missing out on the 78" of snow that's fallen at my house there this winter...

All models, even the NAM and GEM now coming on board with a more easterly track with this storm. My interest is obviously New England, and initial concern was for rapid snowmelt, heavy rain on hard frozen ground resulting in flood risk. I think that risk is now receeding, but being replaced by risk of another dump of snow away from the immediate coastline, although not a huge one (12" poss?), as the storm will move more rapidly than the last one this past week. Interestingly, while all the other forecasters at Accuweather are keeping their powder dry on this for now, Henry Margusity has nailed his colours firmly to the mast and is going with the original track, and is being pretty bolshy about it too. Either he's very stupid or very wise. We'll know for sure in a couple of days whether he needs to bother turning up for work next week!!!

Interestingly, there may be a link to this volcano and some of the met model troubles presently. Aircraft have been re-routed away from a wide vicinity around Redoubt, and as many of these aircraft are used for data collection, there may be some big gaps in the modelling, which may have some large effects especially later in the runs. As an example, it may be one reason why the models are so unsure of the track of the 'monster' storm progged to hit the Eastern US early next week.

GFS now tending towards the Euros with the storm 'bombing' at the coast, which would still give a cold windy rain at the coast, but would pull the snow/rain line further East.Interesting to see deep into FI the GFS showing a retrogressing LP moving from Nova Scotia/NB back towards New England! Wonder when was the last time that happened?

BIG east coast storm Mon/Tues. Lots of debate on exact track at the moment, gfs going for west of Appalachians giving big snowstorm for Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, but Euros tracking further East with the snow dropping on the Appalachians, but still heavy rain for I95 corridor. Question is will it rival the 'Storm of the Century' from '93, or even the Valentine's day Nor'easter from 2007? I doubt it, but the jury is still out. Whatever happens, it's going to be windy for most, snowy for some, wet for many, and followed by bitter winds for all... Roger, what's your expert eye on this one???

Mets now calling for 12-18" in central/northern New England up into the Canadian Maritimes including much of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Due to rate of snowfall and slowness of system, I would think some spots may well get 2 feet from this one.Watch out Debs, another one on its way, although not as windy as the last big storm.

Could we have an updated Ramp Status please, especially in view of the fact that over 200 users were spotted on the model discussion thread on a non holiday Monday morning. Is something afoot? I think we should be told...

Just to put that reading in some sort of context for folk from Blighty who may not have experienced anything like it, the temp at the South Pole base currently is -27C, and Vostok (normally the coldest place on the continent) is -36C, although I do realize in the S. hemisphere it is midsummer! But still, -46C, at a similar latitude to southern France, that is impressive...

If confirmed, -50F (-46C) was recorded this morning at Big Black River in Maine, which may be a new state record.

Houses here are well insulated and make good use of timber which is also a good natural insulator. Snow generally covers the roof in winter so provides even more insulation. A major difference as well is that most houses have basements which again provides a thermal barrier to the main body of the house. The central heating furnace sits here, warming the basement and the heating to the rest of the house is usually by means of forced hot air from this unit.Don't worry, North Americans know how to keep warm...

OK, just spoke with my neighbour who keeps a Radio Shack amateur weather station, and temp fell to -39.1C last night. Bear in mind his house sits about 150' above the river, and I reckon it would have been a little below -40 in the valley floor last night. Incidentally record low for NH is -47C, so cold is not too far off record values. Sure is cold enough though. Not many skiers out today, apart from the Brits of course...Mad dogs and Englishmen eh?

Waiting for final figures to come in, but looks like a few valley stations got down to 40 below this morning in Northern New England. Quite a few power outages in Southern New Hampshire too, not really a day you'd want that to happen!

'Cold Nozeality' - a new term describing the risks of lamp post watching in a brisk westerly...