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mulzy

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Posts posted by mulzy

    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Paul
    Removed part of the quoted post which was edited out in the original

    2 hours ago, weathercold said:

    Can’t say it’s a surprise to see such poor charts this morning.

    Appreciate in a thread titled hunting for cold it’s difficult at times to remain balanced, we’ve all been guilty of it. Sometimes experience and a gut feeling tell you whether or not a cold outcome is likely or not.

    Whilst I appreciate this will be unpopular it’s also right to call it how I see it and not sensationalise needlessly.

    The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave.

    Nearly mid Jan not seen a single flake here just outside London. Jan cold prospects look very poor imo. Hard slog right now with the winter clock ticking away…we live in hope of something resembling winter into Feb - with no SSW realistic imo, we are clinging to hope more than anything right now.

    All the best 

    Possibly (your bolded statement) but what the models have started to pick up on is significant surface cold under the area of high pressure.

    • Like 4

    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mulzy

    1 hour ago, IDO said:

    That MJO signal from last month seemingly, as per last winter, rather mute for any meridional flow and to be wary of hanging our hopes of cold on that variable going forward.

    Looks like a repeating pattern of UK high as we enter the mid-jan period. D8-16 GFS op:

    animngv2.gif 

    The control is similar and the mean heading in that direction. At this range, the core of the HP cell placement will determine what we get in terms of temps, but the last UK high was in situ so that would be my guess. Pretty average stuff unless that forecast high edges west; unlikely pre-mid-Jan due to troughing to our east, effectively a blocking pattern. With no forcing in the NH showing currently we are just seeing the natural state between systems and can be relatively confident in this status quo.

    For what it's worth, the *mean* extended eps does move the core of the heights a little to the west (a low amplitude mid Atlantic high with the jet diving into eastern parts of Europe) could become the form horse in the 10-15 day range.  The sub-seasonal will gives us clues as to what happens next.  

    • Like 2

    Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC eps have a - AO developing early January.

    With a spiking AAM and a favourable MJO we may begin to see something more appealing soon in the models ..

    Not entirely sure where we are ref Nina , I hope it isn't muting the above signals !( if it is ,and I'm assuming Glosea is saying it is,  we're pretty much screwed,IMO ).

    Ext mean eps showing lots of inconsistency over the last couple of runs.  Just shows there are lots of options on the table.  I am struggling to see a clear cut signal in the medium term but there is a trend for temperatures to return back towards normal after the very mild spell. 

    • Like 4
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