[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really really important 12z runs for me today.

If Xmas is to be saved it's last chance saloon.

And it’s 0/1 after the count from Germany (ICON)

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Its not a given that gfs has it wrong. 

I would put it at a 80% chance that GFS is wrong.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

UK high -> Sceuro high -> Scandi high.  That’s the evolution I am looking for.  Need things to align but that’s what we need to be watching out for in FI.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I'm actually surprised to see that EC46 keeps the heights to our North alive deep into January.

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

 

Week 5 is good.  The countdown is on!

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Uninspiring ECM ensembles. Op right at the top for the 23rd to the 25th but not much to get excited about here

The day 10 mean is pretty ominous.  Let’s hope we can scrape a decent cluster in FI.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Well in some ways it'll serve us better to go full on raging zonal with the tpv close to our N or NW rather than sitting in no-mans land with a strong euro HP and unsettled conditions focussed on the NW of the UK. Going full on zonal would at least ensure that we're in the raffle for shots of cold polar maritime air and lower thicknesses from time to time.

Which is not going to deliver for most of lowland Southern England.  I’d rather have a benign Bartlett and 15C.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Scandi high if FI is probably one of the options on the table (after seeing that ECM run).  Let’s see what the clusters say..

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

ECM suggests a mild Xmas for the majority.

Lower heights around Iceland suggest this run will continue mild if we get some tragic phasing.  Let’s see…

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, DOdo said:

My Money is on the GFS, It has shown consistently cold/ snowy for next weekend. 

It can be consistently wrong.  The king (ECM) says no and the UKMO says no - history has taught us coldies that if the UKMO is not in board, you can forget it.

Let’s wait for the better ensemble suites (EPS and MOGREPS) to confirm or otherwise the increasingly milder outlook.

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hey!…the ECM 12z op isn’t so good for coldies, but at least France lost!..so I’m kind of happy.. cheers!  

 

Not a fan of France Frosty?  Any reason for this?

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

ECM and UKMO say no to chilly Xmas.  Let’s see what the EPS and MOGREPS say.  Form horse is for the GEFS to flip to mild (may take a few suites though)

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Question for the experts, has there ever been a time where there was a strong stratospheric PV and *sustained* cold/snow over the UK?

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Poor charts for the UK this morning.  Even though the patterns are from usual, Euro heights is the theme going forward for the next week or so as evidenced in the ops and ensemble suite right out to day 15.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Day 7 ECM should show heavy snow on the boundary between arctic air and sub tropical air.  Northern England / southern Scotland perhaps.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Word of warning: Little support for the GFS from the GEM and UKMO det runs.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Euro heights remain a problem in the medium term.  Somehow we need these to drain away in the 8-15 day period to deliver us the potential of northern blocking which is still there.  One to watch.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

2 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

The ECM continues to show height rise to our south, which leaves us in alternating mild and cold meridional interludes. Ignore this at our peril. This for example at T240 isn't a pathway to cold ... at this stage:

It *is* a pathway to cold.  Yes, needs a few things to align but that chart has great potential. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Write off the UKMO model at your peril.  It is still probably an outside chance but that solution is in the mix.  It has been supported by a minority (20%ish) of its MOGREPS suite as well.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

A nice covering here (1-2cm) on all surfaces.  Just east enough to get some of the action.  Obviously others to the east and north of me have done much better (including central London!)

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

11 minutes ago, LRD said:

Oh dear, that's a shocker

Or a trend setter. I can probably guess which

2 questions this evening - will I ever see an Englishman lift the football World Cup in my lifetime and will I ever see snow in the air and/or on the ground at Xmas ever again?

More chance of the latter.  This could be the year!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Such certainty…

I am such making an assertion of a chart 180 hours away - it's FI anyway.  A pumped Euro ridge is one of the options on the table.  There was no mention of certainty - just a comment on a chart.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Icon 180 hrs is not a good chart.  The  two lows will phase pumping up the Euro ridge.  

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Icon so close to delivering a bullseye for the south…

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

MOGREPS upgrading all the time.  Solid support for it to remain cold.  Just a few runs go to mild in London.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

ECM day 7 is awesome - only topped by UKMO day 7 in my opinion.  What a start to the day - very positive.

 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Better EC this morning by the looks of it. D5-

Yes, but those low heights to the north of the UK are a worry.  Hope there is no ugly phasing. Let's see.