[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Im calling this now!!!im gona say gfs is wrong!!!sorry but for me ecm is the one to follow always has been!!the fact that the changes start as early as 96 hours west of greenland/newfoundland on ecm helps its cause aswell!!!we can give it one last go on the 12zs but ecm shall need a massive shift early on!!ukmo is a middle ground but i think its been a pathetic model over the last few years so dont really follow it lol except for amusement!!

The UKMO-GM is a very good model.  It is consistently better (if the verification stats are to be believed) than the GFS.

It is the first model I check.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

13 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Winter is coming , even if it is mild and wet . Been lurking but now going  get back in the seat again and start hunting after a break. 

That’s great news.  I have missed those NAVGEM charts!

[November 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2022-23 competitions]

7.5C and 97mm please

[October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests]

11.2C and 75mm please

[September 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

15.0C and 55mm please

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

11 hours ago, Jason M said:

UKMO has always been good at day 5. Equally its always been poor at day 7 IMHO. I expect there are stats around the place to prove me wrong but personally I still hold to that view. In winter, unless day 5 METO is on board it isn't happening

Indeed, the UKMO has put the spanner in the works of many a potential cold spell here in the UK.  When I’m religiously following the NWP (mainly winter), it is the first model I check.

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

17 hours ago, Don said:

I wish I could say the same for me as it would save so much disappointment.  However, no chance and if anything I'm worse for it now than when I was a kid!!

If it is not cold and snowy, mild and dry will do.  I despise the wetness and storminess and the fake cold.

[August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

16.9C and 70mm please.

[July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

17.3C and 56mm please

[June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

14.3C and 44mm please

[May 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

12.4C and 74mm please

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

A dreadful day here in London.  Wet and gloomy - Foul!

Bring back the beingness and mildness of February!  

[April 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests]

8.8C and 45mm please

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Thaw of whatever lying snow happening at pace here in SW Lonson.  Expect all of it to be gone by mid-day.  This evening's snow is looking more and more likely to be rain now - at least for southern counties.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Wet snow here in Raynes Park.  Has settled on grass and a few other surfaces.  No covering on road and pavements around here.  The high ground should do well out of this.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

It looks like this week is likely to be very disappointing for many.  Hey-ho, it is what it is.  Chances are possible later in the month but at least for those in the south, we need perfect synoptics to deliver.

A pretty ordinary day 7 chart.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

FWIW, ECM day 10 is promising largely because those dreaded Iberian heights are diminished.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ECM day 6 - health warning before viewing!  It’s ghastly…

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Seems Like the 6z GFS is pushing everything south regards the Weds / Thurs event to such an extent it’s a blank even for most of Southern England.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ECM Plume for Reading suggests the cold air will be in place till Friday and then a significant warm-up (at least in the south).  Friday is FI and there are chances that this warm-up will be pushed back.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

It can snow with 850s close to zero at any time of the year.  850s are not the be all and end all for snow - so many other parameters in play.

Edit:  the 12z ECM is close to being a great run.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

MOGREPS solid for cold even in the south.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ECM - oh dear!

Mild air pushes into the south by day 7.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ECM was the pick this morning - it really needs to be again this evening.  Things could unravel fast here (toys and prams and all that) if ECM is poor.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Some subtle differences between the UKMO and GFS regarding that Atlantic low.

GFS

 

A secondary feature breaks off from the parent low to move eastwards.

UKMO

The UKMO keeps the low enclosed and is beginning to build the Azores ridge, direction remains to be seen it i sense the two would diverge further from here.

Day 7 UKMO would be good to see  - just a few more minutes to wait.  I am worried that the Atlantic low will push up heights from the south - which would limit any trough disruption.