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mulzy

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    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    A downgrade from the Metoffice as suspected.  Another wild goose chase winter! 😒

    Yes, could this be the final nail this winter?  Let's hold out hope for something in mid-February but that is looking rather unlikely now.  A winter that promised much but delivered little (is that the same every year though?)

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    "Background signals" haven't failed, though. They only take you so far and micro details are important, shorter range changes are important. There have been several rounds of strat warming and it seems the most recent one "reflected" if you like, this helped to draw the Canadian PV eastwards towards Siberia which flattened out what previously should have been a more promising pattern for cold. 

    Things change, forecasts evolve. Anyone expecting snow outside their front door or cold in a small area such as the UK purely based on teleconnections doesn't understand them, or is placing far too much emphasis on their ability to predict the micro pattern. Broadscale pattern they've done incredibly well this winter. 

    Unfortunately, short-term prospects that simply cannot be forecasted at range (such as the SSW) can disrupt and change expectations. That doesn't make the teleconnections/background drivers useless.

    Whatever the pros and cons of teleconnections and background signals, if (a big if) February doesn't deliver, it will be another exceptionally poor winter viz. wintry nirvana.  With all the hype that has been flying around, it could be one of the most disappointing winters in NW history.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mulzy

    58 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    These composites are for all MJO amplitudes however. The ones I’ve referred to are for at least 0.5, maybe even 1.0 amplitude & were produced more recently making them a bit more relevant to the current climate.

    Not that MJO composites tell all. The AAM cycle adds its own twist, as does the stratospheric polar vortex state if it’s usually strong or weak.

    I continue to view the week 2 modelling with only slight interest for the time being. The first major opportunity to disrupt the Atlantic trough enough to start migrating high pressure appreciably toward Scandinavia is next Fri so I’m hoping for a clearer picture by Mon on whichever way things will go.

    These composites are for all MJO amplitudes however. The ones I’ve referred to are for at least 0.5, maybe even 1.0 amplitude & were produced more recently making them a bit more relevant to the current climate.

    Not that MJO composites tell all. The AAM cycle adds its own twist, as does the stratospheric polar vortex state if it’s usually strong or weak.

    I continue to view the week 2 modelling with only slight interest for the time being. The first major opportunity to disrupt the Atlantic trough enough to start migrating high pressure appreciably toward Scandinavia is next Fri so I’m hoping for a clearer picture by Mon on whichever way things will go.

    Serious question - are MJO analogues flakey at the best of times and not worth the paper they are printed on in a world that is warming very fast?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC 46 looks very dry.

    The model is not really seeing retrogression at this point...

    Sad thing about tonight's EC 46 is it looks very sparce on snow which would mean some people remaining snowless out to late Feb , hopefully not ...

    Indeed nws - it's looking ominous.  Another snowless winter is possible in London to add to the many in recent history.  What makes this winter different is the ridiculous level of ramping by experts and amateurs alike.  Anyway, we have 5 or so weeks of winter left so who knows but the signs are not good (see chart below).

    image.thumb.png.f2456c947f89e9ff358254cf5a1f7bb5.png

     

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Nick F said:

    True, the lack of cold from antecedent mild southwesterlies pumping deep into NE Europe and NW Russia is a worry, though with the right synoptic pattern developing, it can return there from the arctic fairly quickly before the rest of northern Europe can tap into it, but without the notably low temperatures we have seen build since November over Scandinavia, will any quickly developing cold pool be too marginal by the time it reaches here? All conjecture for now, as we have to get a Scandi high to develop and get and easterly flow far enough west in the first place.

    Getting all the right pieces of the jigsaw to fall into place, not least getting cold air back to the NE and E Europe, a Scandi high to extend far enough west and crucially low heights over southern Europe to stop a high to the NE collapsing south, is an uphill battle to break out of the strong +NAO pattern ensuing.

    Indeed Nick.  The EPS look pretty benign to me (at last it dries up after next week's rain and gales).  No significant cold - here is the 2m anomaly from last night's EPS - nothing cold here.  We may be looking at weeks 3 and 4 to save winter but my expectations are much lower after being burnt on the chase that has delivered a handful of frosts only.

    eps_T2maMean_nhem_11.thumb.png.551f713c5d486c36cfc897cc971d4526.png

    • Like 5

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well I've done that much chasing it's definitely time to take a step back for now ..

    As Arnie once said ,I'll be back !!

    EC day 9 says it might be a while !

    image.thumb.png.053f01d056ae41a3d0a28c6780fd9c6e.png

    I personally think we are a long way off cold.  Record mildness is possible early next week; 14C/15C in the south.  We have to be honest, the chase for this mediocre cold snap has been tiring and demoralising.  The experts on here as well as the Met Office got it badly wrong.  January’s CET will come in above average (maybe significantly so) to follow December’s exceptional mildness.  Can February save this winter from joining the scrapheap of poor winters?  At the moment, it’s mainly hope that is keeping me going.

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mulzy

    25 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The models seem uber confident about the mild conditions setting up and staying.

    Indeed, after the frosty days of this week, nothing cold on the horizon.  At the outer reaches of the NWP, we do seem to have variations of a Euro and Sceuro high.  Even the Met Office has written off January for deep cold.  February is still up for grabs but we need to see some of the outer reaches output move to colder solutions - this is not happening yet.

    • Like 2

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mulzy

    The longest chase in Netweather history ends in typical fashion.  It''s very likely that the January CET comes in above average.  We hope that February delivers, but the EC46 is moving away from sustained wintry weather.

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

    We’re looking into February, possibly even back end.

    I’m personally looking forward to spring now. Only so much rain and gloom one can take.

    The back end of February - no thanks!

    Let's hope the modeling can expedite the next chase but nothing so far apart from some tenous signs on EC46.

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mulzy

    When will the post-mortems begin?  Where did it all go wrong?  So this long chase will lead to 4/5 night-time frosts, 3-4C by day, and dry as a bone for London.  The dry bit I like after the deluge of December but we stayed up all night for this.  At least I got a snow flurry on Monday.  Roll on the next chase and guess what we'll do it again because we are truly nuts!

    • Like 9
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