[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Low to the south at day 9 brings heavy snow to parts of the south - very knife-edge as ever.

[March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

5.5C and 76mm please

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I give you P10 and raise you P6.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Is that a polar lp heading south ? 

Looks like a normal warm core low to me.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Icon will say no precipitation . Blimey I only went an hour and it's gone mental in here , great stuff . 
 

what a great ECM but also all hail the nearly MIGHTY Navgem, its not to bad afterall tonight.

Glad the NAVGEM is on board!

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

All in FI but one of the things we need to watch is how far south the low heights to the north/northeast get.  There also seems to be a tendency for the low heights to move westward in the day 7-10 period.  This results in higher heights being scooped up from the south.  One to watch - we still have a very long way to go and many hurdles to cross.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

ECM det - at least it will be dry!  That’s the best I could come up with!

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

The real worry is the EPS in the day 8-12 day range.  Let's hope for better this evening but the trend is currently not good.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oh yeah baby

What’s the NAVGEM (aka the Gold Standard)  saying?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

FWIW, the GEFS 0z set is very decent in the extended timeframe.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM delivers the final insult to coldies .

A west based negative NAO.

Theres just one cluster post T264 hrs . Initially there might be some colder air heading south but by T360 hrs the block is too far west .

 

Given the timeframes involved we can just hope that this isn’t the final outcome .

One cluster probably means way too many solutions to consider.  It's all up in the air post day-10.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Counting down nicely-

Remember the date...circa 5th March

It's just one of the many possibilities on offer for the 11-14 day period.  Way too far to take seriously at this stage.  Get it within the 5-day range and I'll take notice - especially the 18z from last night.  Dream synoptics for the south.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

12 minutes ago, Tills said:

Some welcome rain for us gardeners in the south:

The north should continue to have plenty:

 

If we can’t have snow, let high pressure rule the roost.  Rain can wait till Autumn..

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

MJO phase 7 10 lag amplification or trop response to SSW displacement / reversal?

 

Or just the GFS doing a random tease?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Extended eps are very underwhelming.  Let's hope for better in this evening's run.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Last nights ECM 12z vs todays 12z.

Yes, some variance on the 850s but looks broadly similar from a synoptic point of view.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a big jump in the GEFS in terms of 850s .

Far removed from the earlier 00hrs . The GFS did get something’s right , the other models originally wanted to take low pressure east towards Norway .

As it transpired this was wrong , and the low phasing with the PV as called by the GFS and shortwave energy heading ne was correct .

Of course it will face derision because of its later output but let’s not think that the Euros and other models were right all along .

 

All models are wrong; some are more wrong than others - that's the issue.

The verification stats do not lie and the GFS is an inferior model to say the ECM - it's as clear as day.

GFS has a disproportionately high amount  of air-time on this thread.  Not saying we should ignore it, but let's keep a balance.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No backtrack from GFS it might be wrong but you can’t fault the consistency. 

It can be consistently wrong of course.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Looks like we'll be back to chasing cold in deep FI again today.

As I said yesterday, once the UKMO-GM puts a spanner in the works, it is generally game over.  It has happened so often over the years.  

[February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

4.0C and 40mm please

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I wish it was the other way round - UKMO being great and GFS showing crud.

UKMO output has put a spanner into many a potential cold spell.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Exeter blinking a little by the looks of it.  
 

“…there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers.”

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

30 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 

384 hours of nothing!!

If we can’t get snow then this is good enough.  Who wants wind and rain?

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Yes, ECM day 10 quite amplified.  Maybe, just maybe something is afoot.

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

If the extended eps are getting a handle on what’s happening high up and the likely response low down then we are looking at a NAO+ through the first week feb 

I reckon we will not see any interesting trop developments (viz. strat) till mid February at the earliest.  Hoping it can be quicker but +NAO in the extended eps is not really a surprise.