mulzy

Back to the models, the outer reaches of the ICON has the continuing theme of intense PV over Greenland and Euro high. Are we going to break out of this pattern in time? Time will tell.

Whatever the pros and cons of teleconnections and background signals, if (a big if) February doesn't deliver, it will be another exceptionally poor winter viz. wintry nirvana. With all the hype that has been flying around, it could be one of the most disappointing winters in NW history.

Yes, maybe a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel here. The PV looks less organised in this frame - we need to see this trend continuing over the next few days.

Serious question - are MJO analogues flakey at the best of times and not worth the paper they are printed on in a world that is warming very fast?

Indeed nws - it's looking ominous. Another snowless winter is possible in London to add to the many in recent history. What makes this winter different is the ridiculous level of ramping by experts and amateurs alike. Anyway, we have 5 or so weeks of winter left so who knows but the signs are not good (see chart below).

Indeed Nick. The EPS look pretty benign to me (at last it dries up after next week's rain and gales). No significant cold - here is the 2m anomaly from last night's EPS - nothing cold here. We may be looking at weeks 3 and 4 to save winter but my expectations are much lower after being burnt on the chase that has delivered a handful of frosts only.

Note to myself - stick to the NWP within 5 days. Everything else is just pie in the sky. Hopefully I will learn my lesson this time. This chase has been so draining for so little. The biggest bust in NW history?

I think (and hope) you’re right. I just don’t want the rain and gales to hang around for too long. Let’s at least get some dry usable weather.

I personally think we are a long way off cold. Record mildness is possible early next week; 14C/15C in the south. We have to be honest, the chase for this mediocre cold snap has been tiring and demoralising. The experts on here as well as the Met Office got it badly wrong. January’s CET will come in above average (maybe significantly so) to follow December’s exceptional mildness. Can February save this winter from joining the scrapheap of poor winters? At the moment, it’s mainly hope that is keeping me going.

Indeed, after the frosty days of this week, nothing cold on the horizon. At the outer reaches of the NWP, we do seem to have variations of a Euro and Sceuro high. Even the Met Office has written off January for deep cold. February is still up for grabs but we need to see some of the outer reaches output move to colder solutions - this is not happening yet.

The longest chase in Netweather history ends in typical fashion. It''s very likely that the January CET comes in above average. We hope that February delivers, but the EC46 is moving away from sustained wintry weather.

Everything is currently trending in the wrong direction, even the EC46 is now not as good as earlier. Not to say this trend can’t be arrested or even reversed but for now medium term prospects look bleak.

Let's be honest, a pretty dreadful 10-day mean from the ECM suite. It's *often* a long way back from here.

The Chinese model says sleet/snow in the south on Wednesday - yes, I'm scraping the barrel but want to bring back some joy back to this thread.

By something, what do you mean, snow or frost?

The back end of February - no thanks! Let's hope the modeling can expedite the next chase but nothing so far apart from some tenous signs on EC46.

When will the post-mortems begin? Where did it all go wrong? So this long chase will lead to 4/5 night-time frosts, 3-4C by day, and dry as a bone for London. The dry bit I like after the deluge of December but we stayed up all night for this. At least I got a snow flurry on Monday. Roll on the next chase and guess what we'll do it again because we are truly nuts!

Maybe random noise but the 0z GEFS seems to indicate more of an event on Wednesday for the south. Let's see what the other suites say but the 18z MOGREPS gave it a complete blank.

Not over till the fat lady sings but the output tonight is rather underwhelming. We need Nick Sussex and his restaurant metaphors.

Yes Mike, it looks 'wedgey' if there is such a word!

Day 6 MOGREPS snowdepth chart - take with a pinch of salt but it does show the southern runner is probably a 30% chance of impacting parts of the south (even as far north as the Midlands in a few solutions).

FWIW, the 18z Control has a Scandi high forming at day 10.

18z GEFS mean at day 6 better than 12z suite.

In GEM we trust friends. Make no mistake, the ECM is truly pants!

The ECM is a poor run in FI. Let’s see where it sits within its ensemble suite.