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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    Can we trust the GEFS though? The GEPS nowhere near as good - at lot more emphasis on low heights in the mid Atlantic.
  2. mulzy
    In Anomaly terms. Very close to something good. The GEPS nowhere near as good.
  3. mulzy
    When the @ICE COLD UK 850 maps are being shown, you know there must be some interest!!
  4. mulzy
    This morning's GEPS and last night's EPS don't have such an extended period of cold so caution needed viz. the GEFS. This morning's EPS also suggests a shorter duration for the *initial* cold snap.
  5. mulzy
    Looks like ECM is the fastest of the major models with that low off ESB at day 6 - looks like the pattern will flatten out in FI. Near term, deep low has gone and a shallower feature skirts central and western areas on Tues.
  6. mulzy
    Yes showing up nicely on the ensemble means.
  7. mulzy
    Slightly underwhelming EPS mean - days 7 to 10. Clusters might reveal more.
  8. mulzy
    For those GFS fanboys, stick to 72 and even then expect it to be wrong at times!
  9. mulzy
    To avoid disappointment, stick to Exeter. No signs of prolonged cold and significant lowland snow (for now).
  10. mulzy
    Stating the obvious but, tomorrow's ECM sub-seasonal could give us future clues - will it stick to a weakening of the SPV or will it flip back to what the Ext GFS is showing? Time will tell as ever...
  11. mulzy
    Raised eyebrow ECM day 9.
  12. mulzy
    Heights to thew south well advertised in the ensemble suites up to day 12-ish. The interest happens after day 12 - can we get the lower heights into Europe, the GEFS say yes, the GEM ensembles say yes (though nowhere as good as the GEFS) Need to see what the eps tell us.
  13. mulzy
    4.0C and 105mm please. Mild and wet then a cold last third.
  14. mulzy
    The GFS is canon fodder! Remember if the UKMO-GM is not showing any cold, you can forget it - Many a potential cold spell over the years was torpedoed (correctly so) by the UKMO-GM.
  15. mulzy
    Slowly slowly, we are getting a better hemispheric pattern. It's painful and there are lots of forks on the road ahead but there is at least some promise (I refuse to use the word potential as in my opinion that should be a week's ban on here!)
  16. mulzy
    Merry Xmas everyone. Kiddo wakes up and asks “where is the snow?” Back to the charts - strong Euro high is modelled in FI. Can it be sucked north?
  17. mulzy
    We need that arctic high to push towards the Atlantic sector. Not sure how it does that but thats the end game we want.
  18. mulzy
    Arctic high back at day 10 ECM.
  19. mulzy
    Mid latitude high is probably a decent bet in the 10-15 day period. Whether the high can migrate to Scandinavia and advent much colder air remains to be seen. Met Office seems to have dropped colder by mid January signal.
  20. mulzy
    You can apply that to an operationals - only of any use up to day 5 (or day 4 if GFS). Ensemble guidance post day 5.
  21. mulzy
    P24 from the GEFS 6z is interesting in the medium term (day 8). Desperate stuff I know.
  22. mulzy
    Day 16 GEM ensemble mean maybe offers a glimmer of hope. At face value, horrific, but if we see this anomaly moving north over the next few runs then at least we have a ticket. One to watch.
  23. mulzy
    They will wait till they see tomorrow’s Euro sub seasonal. If it continues with northern blocking then there will be no change.
  24. mulzy
    The writing has been on the wall for a few days. Relying on the GFS was sheer desperation. Straws left: the MO medium ranger and weeks 5 and 6 from the Euro sub-seasonal.
  25. mulzy
    And it’s 0/1 after the count from Germany (ICON)
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