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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    A decent summary there Bradley. December was dull but January and February to date has been rather sunny (for Winter). Add in the crisp clear frosty mornings and it hasn't been awful. I really hope we can avoid the storminess that some of the NWP is suggesting in the medium term - hopefully high pressure remains with us as we enter spring.
  2. mulzy
    5.4C and 50mm please
  3. mulzy
    Teething problems - that's yesterday's ensemble even though it's dated Sunday at the top. Meteociel has all 51 eps ensembles runs to view at your perusal. Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble CEP/ECMWF ENS WWW.METEOCIEL.FR meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...
  4. mulzy
    Feel the frustration Mike but we can’t know for sure that ‘winter is over’. The odds are against any lowland snow for the south but we can’t categorically rule it out. Keep the faith for a few more weeks I’d say.
  5. mulzy
    No thanks. If we can't get wintry nirvana, then benign weather is fine. Most people hate rain and wind.
  6. mulzy
    Let’s hope the ECM det is onto something. It’s ensemble set is trending the wrong way very fast. The mean Is flat as a pancake in the extended. The UKMO at day 7 is also conducive of potential blocking to the north east.
  7. mulzy
    Indeed. the UKMO-GM leading the way....
  8. mulzy
    Good support for the ECM det at 10 day from the eps. The extended eps *could* be fun.... Edit: Not quite but an improvement on this morning so baby steps and all that - need to check the clusters for more clues.
  9. mulzy
    Maybe, just maybe the extended mean eps getting a touch better - something like the gfs at day 15/16 will feature in the extended clusters. Not great but positive evolutions from there if we can get the PV over Greenland to ease off a bit. I know it's scrapping the barrel, but need to inject some positivity in here. I keep saying that we need to look east/north east in the extended - might not deliver but that is where our best hope remains.
  10. mulzy
    Maybe, just maybe, tentative signs of better clusters in the extended eps. AO trending negative in the extended. Personally I think we may have to look east and north east - may not happen quickly but that is where I believe our best chances lie...
  11. mulzy
    Colder (at 850 level) maritime air delivers little to most of the country. We might as well keep the high - at least it will be dry with sunny and frosty conditions.
  12. mulzy
    ECM is poor folks. Let’s wait for the eps but nothing cold and wintry In the horizon (at least for most of lowland Britain).
  13. mulzy
    Beware GFS/GEFS - it’s had a shocker of a winter. However, a low probability chance that it is into something that comes to fruition. Nothing special from the extended eps except the AO is now trending slightly more negative in the outer reaches when compared to previous runs.
  14. mulzy
    Eps says no! Eps suggests Euro heights; gefs suggest neutral/low heights over Europe. Big divergence - I know which one I trust.
  15. mulzy
    Extended mean eps suggests the low heights to the north east migrating back to the Greenland locale resulting in heights rising across Europe - pretty uninspiring. However a hint of height rises to the north east possible - need to check the clusters.
  16. mulzy
    Usual spread at outer reaches. 25% of members show a negative AO in the day 12-15 range.
  17. mulzy
    Eps suggests the current strongly positive AO state only diminishes slowly - still mildly positive by day 15.
  18. mulzy
    Extended *mean* eps showing marginal improvement with the core of the low heights over Finland/western Russia and less troughing to our north-west. I'm not saying it's a great configuration but it does look a touch more amplified than previous runs. Clusters will reveal more.
  19. mulzy
    At least it will be dry(ish)! To be honest, this pattern has been well advertised by the eps for a while now. We just have to suck it up and hope we get some luck in February.
  20. mulzy
    Extended mean eps nothing like the extended mean gefs. Extedned eps suggesting a +AO/+NAO pattern, while the gefs flapping around with some kind of half decent solution for NW Europe. Any bets on which solution will be nearer the mark?
  21. mulzy
    ECM 0z more similar to the GEM than the GFS sadly.
  22. mulzy
    FWIW, the mean ext eps showing a +AO/+NAO setup. Still high heights at the mid latitudes but this is sinking further south. Sorry to be bearer of bad news but this is bleak for any deep cold for the UK.
  23. mulzy
    ECM 0Z is a high pressure borefest. The tease at day 10 is largely gone.
  24. mulzy
    ECM Day 10 interesting in the way the Arctic high forms. Can it nose into Greenland and suck the heights out of Europe? Big ask but possible. I know we are scrapping the barrel but it is what it is!
  25. mulzy
    Hard to say but it’s more of an entity on the 6z than the 0z. Does that increase the chance of it being cutoff? Maybe…
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