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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    The ECM sub~seasonal that’s takes us through December suggests a +NAO signal through most if not all of the period. Looks like a strong TPV setting up. Disappointing to be honest.
  2. mulzy
    The ext EPS mean toying with renewed mid Atlantic heights (the northerly extent of which could have huge ramifications). Good chance that this will subsequently topple to form a UK high or dare I say it a Scandi high!
  3. mulzy
    Keep the faith, the sub-seasonal EPS last night suggested plenty of interest through December.
  4. mulzy
    FWIW, outer range of the *mean* ext EPS suggests a westerly flow over the UK with heights to the south (classic France-Spain high pressure).
  5. mulzy
    ECM seasonal rather than wintry for most of lowland Britain. Mid range modelling does suggest the diluting of the heights in the Atlantic and this is becoming evidently clear in the day 10-12 range of most of the NWP. Let's see how how things pan out from there.
  6. mulzy
    Yes, not a fan of this ECM run. The classic limpet low to the S/SW of the UK wrecking any chance of CAA.
  7. mulzy
    Gosh, it’s amazing that even the professionals don’t understand the meaning of the word “outlier”. The Det and Control are *not* outliers - they are within the envelope of possible solutions. - maybe lower probability but still feasible solutions. As @bluearmy indicated upthread they are within cluster 2 in the 8-10 day period which indicates these solutions are not without some support within the ensemble suite! (Rant over!)
  8. mulzy
    Hmm, seen it happen a lot over the years. The UKMO is a superb model for our neck of the woods (unsurprisingly).
  9. mulzy
    Interesting UKMO output at day 7 - some support for this solution from the ICON but most other models say no. Let’s see how this pans out…
  10. mulzy
    Pretty much ties in with ECMWF sub-seasonal. The real interest is what happens next - do heights remain persistent to the south or do they drain away leading to height rises to the north-west?
  11. mulzy
    7.3C and 59mm please.
  12. mulzy
    The MetOffice forecast is probabilistic. It doesn't say it *will* be a milder than average winter - it suggests that there is a higher than average chance of it being a milder than average winter. A cold winter though unlikely is still within the forecast envelope.
  13. mulzy
    Heavy rain and a rumble of thunder here in SW London.
  14. mulzy
    Looks like final CET for September came in at 15.9C.
  15. mulzy
    10.7C and 93mm please
  16. mulzy
    14.6C and 75mm please
  17. mulzy
    Yes, heating is on here too and for once it wasn’t the Mrs that pushed me. It’s chilly inside and out!
  18. mulzy
    Most be closing in one of the dullest Augusts on record here in London. Once again, a cloudy cool start here - not expecting to see the sun today.
  19. mulzy
    16.3C and 82mm please.
  20. mulzy
    Biblical rain with odd clap of thunder here in Raynes Park. Flooding across parts of west London a possibility.
  21. mulzy
    17.3 and 50mm please
  22. mulzy
    Yes, central heating has been fired up on the summer solstice!
  23. mulzy
    15.3C and 44mm please
  24. mulzy
    Still cloudy here in Raynes Park at 11:00. Rater cool as well. Very disappointing so far but will improve soon.
  25. mulzy
    Getting fed up with this cool weather. Need some proper sun on our back.
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