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Everything posted by mulzy
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EPS mean not as good as the the GEFS - seems more progressive with the the low heights over the Atlantic - that in turn raises heights over Iberia and we never quite recover from that. The low heights over Central Europe not really in play. Still a very good profile to the north. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM is a cracking run - not perfect but very good! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
mulzy replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Poor return for south west London but expectations were low! Let’s see if we catch a shower overnight. It just hasn’t been cold enough with temps between 1 to 2 degrees all day. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
mulzy replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Moderate snizzle here. Icing sugar cover on some surfaces! 1.3C -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
mulzy replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Snizzle here in RP. 2.3C -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Configurationally the mean eps days 12 onward look great - high heights to the north, low heights to the south. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
mulzy replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
That looks very disappointing for quite a lot of the region including the populated London area. Those in the amber warning zone will most likely do well. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
mulzy replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
(Snow) for the many, not the few. I hope that’s the mantra for this thread. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
mulzy replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Slight shift northwestward on the ECM 6z too. The 0z run was very east-based. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Atlantic making no progress at day 6 on the ECM - similar to the GEM though not quite as good in my opinion. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Potentially and even if not any less cold period may not last long. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Big shift in the medium and longer range EPS - significant northern heights back in the menu! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Am I the only one who thinks that the UKMO day 6 chart is decent? Significant wedge over Scandinavia. Also, for fwiw the ICON is cold throughout. The models have a bias to be progressive when encountering a pool of cold air. Anything after day 5 should be treated with a truck load of salt! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could be a temporary swing with this eps suite but days 7-9 mean is quite a bit milder than this mornings suite. Iberian heights the issue. The op is probably middle of the pack with regards temps. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Day 9-10 mean EPS trending colder. Less ridging to the south with the jet cutting through the UK. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Heavy snow in the south on the disrupting trough 168 to 192 on the ECM. Uppers should be cold enough. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Up to 90 hours -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very similar to the 0z run - margins here and there but basically the same. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The medium range EPS mean has shifted the core of the cold further north - looks good for the northern part of the UK. However still decent in the south (though not as cold as this morning) so keep the faith folks! -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pretty similar to now - except colder in the south. These charts are just for fun anyway - great entertainment but they hardly come to fruition. -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In contrast to the GEFS, the EPS mean rock solid. Very cold days 5-8. 850 Means of -9/-10 widely by day 6/7. -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EPS mean days 6-8 cold - coldest this season I would say.