Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

mulzy

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,066

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    ECM 6z (out to 90 hours) similar to its 0z run and nowhere near as amplified as the 6z GFS.
  2. mulzy
    Extended mean eps very little cheers folks. Northern arm still strong with high pressure belt from Azores into Europe evident.
  3. mulzy
    Indeed NWS, the ECM is the best (for coldies) of the models at day 8 plus for sure. Pumping up the ridge over Europe didn't help at day 9 though!
  4. mulzy
    ECM day 8 is reasonably good in my books. Can that trough to the NW of Iceland dive south east instead of phasing with the main trough over Russia? The next two frames will reveal all but at day 8 ECM is not bad!
  5. mulzy
    Possibly (your bolded statement) but what the models have started to pick up on is significant surface cold under the area of high pressure.
  6. mulzy
    Day 10 ECM is a bit 'wedgy'. Not amazing but at least a straw to cling on to....
  7. mulzy
    Mean ext eps has been trending the wrong way for a while now - strong northern jet with some mid to low latitude heights. Poor. Eps vs gefs - which one do you trust?
  8. mulzy
    Indeed. The northern arm remains strong into the medium term. There is little chance of HLB at present with fragments of the PV lurking at the higher latitudes. Wedges are our best bet, but we need a lot of luck for things to fall perfectly.
  9. mulzy
    ECM an improvement from last night. Interesting to see a Scandi surface high at day 10 - however the configuration of the jet looks poor for us on this run.
  10. mulzy
    ECM day 8 not perfect but at least it’s not as flat as previous runs.
  11. mulzy
    Extended *mean* eps continues (and further improves by getting a little more amplitude) to show mid Atlantic ridging with low heights across Scandinavia and across Europe. The extended eps are unlikely to be mild, if anything they should be colder than average.
  12. mulzy
    There are quite a few tasty GEFS in the day 10-15 range. Something to watch perhaps? The mean eps though not as good suggesting something similar. So possibly a cold northerly or north-westerly in the offing?
  13. mulzy
    For what it's worth, the *mean* extended eps does move the core of the heights a little to the west (a low amplitude mid Atlantic high with the jet diving into eastern parts of Europe) could become the form horse in the 10-15 day range. The sub-seasonal will gives us clues as to what happens next.
  14. mulzy
    Too much energy over the top but it's nine days out so hopefully plenty of opportunity for upgrades. The eps has been advertising the strong jet over the top for a while now in the day 10+ range. Edit: close but no cigar on the ECM run this morning.
  15. mulzy
    Tuesday is certainly interesting. Mogreps snow depth 12 noon on Tuesday shown below. Still an outside chance but at least there is a chance!
  16. mulzy
    5.2C and 98m please
  17. mulzy
    Ext mean EPS shows promise, potentially eastern promise!
  18. mulzy
    Next week's Atlantic amplification fails to hold but the next opportunity is possibly at day 10 as shown on the GEM. ECMWF is much flatter at day 10 though
  19. mulzy
    The limited amplification at day 8 on the ECM fails to hold and pattern gets flattened very quickly. The mean eps slightly better in this regard but even here it gets squashed down.
  20. mulzy
    Ext mean eps showing lots of inconsistency over the last couple of runs. Just shows there are lots of options on the table. I am struggling to see a clear cut signal in the medium term but there is a trend for temperatures to return back towards normal after the very mild spell.
  21. mulzy
    GEM tease at days 9 and 10 but no support from the other operationals. ECM looks very zonal in FI and very different to last night's run.
  22. mulzy
    EPS says no! A +NAO pattern setting up according to the day 12-15 EPS mean.
  23. mulzy
    FWIW, the day 16 GEFS mean anomaly gives some hope - albeit weak signals this far out.
  24. mulzy
    Poor charts this morning but as others have suggested the UKMO day 6 is the chart of the morning. Let's see what this evening's runs bring. Still look north east for that Arctic High - models historically struggle with it so expect significant run to run differences in the medium term.
  25. mulzy
    This is what I’ve been banging on about the last few days. Far from perfect but very very amplified.
×
×
  • Create New...