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Everything posted by mulzy
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May 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
mulzy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
11.2C and 83mm please -
April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
mulzy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Like a lot of people, I do like it cold in Winter especially as this increases snow chances. But cool from May onwards is a no-no - most of us want a bit of warmth and the sun on our back - I think it's a natural human instinct and we all know the sun plays a huge role in our mood! -
April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
mulzy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
7.9C and 55mm please. -
March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
mulzy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
6.4C and 75mm please -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Winter is over! A low expectation winter at the start but lots of promise through the winter but ultimately failed to deliver. -
Wow - third best - just goes to show even in our region, some folk (a small minority) did well. Here in SW London, it probably wont make the top 50! For a winter that had some fantastic meteorological phenomena (3 warmings in the Strat, a very negative AO etc.), the outcome on the ground for most of the south of the country was desperately disappointing. Feb 2021 - a month that promised so much but delivered so little!
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Yes ensemble suites can flip just like the det runs. They do tend to be a little more stable though!
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No real change - we just the whole pattern a thousand miles further north!
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The mean eps having none of the day 10 tease from the op and para. Strong Euro high well into the extended.
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Yes, a significant backtrack - I wonder what the Met Office were seeing?
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Universally poor output including the extended eps. Exeter still going for a cool down from next weekend but this is not showing in the NWP. Time is running out for a flip but it is still just possible. To coin a phrase “more runs needed”.
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Beast from the East 2021.Post-mortem.
mulzy replied to sunnijim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Probably a 5/10 here in South West London. It was cold (with a biting wind) including one ice day. Snow albeit mostly light fell on four days which was nice to see. The big disappointment was the snow depth which maxed out at 1.5cm. Not a classic and will be forgotten if /when it snows heavily for a couple of hours here. The chase was fun but the end result was underwhelming. Best snowy months remain Feb 91, Feb 09, Dec 10, Jan 13 here in SW London. -
Pretty ordinary output this morning. There are indications that we might finally get there on the ECM and ECM para but it’s messy, tortuous and slow with lots of hurdles to cross.
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Disappointingly, the extended mean EPS has not moved much (yet). Need to get lower heights into Europe and we’re in business. Let’s hope for better tomorrow.
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Yes they have - should be taken with a truck load of salt. I am sure there will be a cold cluster in the extended period. Even though the mean suggests mild and dry, move the whole pattern north west by a thousand miles (!!) then cold and snowy especially for the southern half of the country could be the outcome.
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Fwiw, the extended mean eps continues the rather mild high pressure dominated scene. Early spring rather than late winter!
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mean ext EPS paints a benign and rather mild picture with high pressure dominant. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, Heathrow raw maximums from the ECM run between -1.1C and 2.1C over the next ten days with a -10C minimum chucked in too. That’s exceptionally cold for London.