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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    Ex EPS mean very good. Significant heights to the northwest, north and way out east. Low Euro heights (centred over eastern Spain). A few tweaks here and there and we are looking at winter perfection.
  2. mulzy
    ECM synoptically amazing - a 300 mile push further east would be very useful (which is well within the envelope).
  3. mulzy
    Ridging into NW Europe extends further east than the GFS (day 5) - could this lead to the track of the low to be more easterly? Would be beneficial for us.
  4. mulzy
    Looks like the more amplified solutions from days 8-10 dominate the EPS. Much better mean than last night.
  5. mulzy
    It does get better in the 11-15 day period with heights returning to the north west and low Euro heights.
  6. mulzy
    Early indications of the EPS mean up to day 10 nowhere near as good as the GEFS. Displaced Azores High with lowish heights in Greenland persisting.
  7. mulzy
    All I want for Xmas is..... ...perturbation 26 from the 6z GEFS! I have been a really good boy this year Santa (promise!)
  8. mulzy
    No surprise there. We are still a *long* way from a wintry cold spell being nailed on. Signals are promising but a lot of water is yet to flow under the bridge.
  9. mulzy
    ECMWF Day 6 - obvious the ridge will not hold. Eyes need to watch the second bout of amplification.
  10. mulzy
    Yes, this is what the extended eps has been broadly hinting at - Euro toughing with a strong Azores High displaced slightly north - mean flow north of west. The GEFS a bit better with the Atlantic profile in deep FI.
  11. mulzy
    Frost in the new snow perhaps?
  12. mulzy
    Extended eps while continuing to show low heights over Europe now indicates a flatter Atlantic profile as hinted in the day 10 mean. Still reasonable but trending the wrong way I am afraid.
  13. mulzy
    Not sure about the 6z running with significantly less data. Additionally, Last time I looked there is very little difference on the verification of the various GFS cycles.
  14. mulzy
    ECM at day 8 showing reasonable continuity from last night's run. Will that low disrupt like last night or will the ridge topple. Stay tuned!
  15. mulzy
    Subtle changes in the extended EPS mean. The low heights anomaly close to the UK is stronger but it does push the higher heights over Europe further east/south east. There is now a tendency for heights to the south showing up (as seen in the outer reaches of the last few det runs) but this is a relatively weak signal. The heights around Greenland are not as intense as runs earlier this week. All in all, still decent but trending the wrong way. Let’s see what this evening brings.
  16. mulzy
    Yes very decent. The extended EPS extends the mean trough eastwards to cover northwest Europe and the area of higher heights over Europe pushed further south east. Height heights remain to our north especially over the Greenland locale. A colder set than this morning’s suite.
  17. mulzy
    I know it’s like a broken record but the outer reaches of the extended EPS broadly as before. Significant heights to the northwest, north and northeast. Low heights over southwest Europe.
  18. mulzy
    Outer reaches of the extended EPS - best of the winter season so far - high heights to the north and west as previously advertised; low heights to the south and finally low heights showing up over Russia. Is this the start of a trend?
  19. mulzy
    It’s not the worst chart in the world. Pattern is very amplified - longer term from here could be interesting!
  20. mulzy
    The ext EPS keeps us in the game - very blocked pattern with significant heights returning to our north. Slow and steady wins the race!
  21. mulzy
    Unfortunately, the trend of removing the low heights over Europe in the extended EPS timeframe has continued. Higher heights remain to the north and east - though looks like the higher heights to the east pushing westward through eastern parts of Europe. Still a decent outlook though not as good as a few days ago.
  22. mulzy
    The extended EPS looks good to me - low heights over Europe, higher than normal heights to the west and north and way out east. That's a cool / cold signal for the foreseeable.
  23. mulzy
    4.4C and 84mm please
  24. mulzy
    Sadly it looks like cold rain for many after this evening’s NWP episodes - only the GEM looks good for more widespread snow. ECM goes shortwave crazy in FI - probably a bit unbelievable but time will tell as ever.
  25. mulzy
    FWIW the GEM is very interesting from days 4 to 6. It's most likely an outlier solution but it's on the cards.
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