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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    This is what I’ve been banging on about the last few days. Far from perfect but very very amplified.
  2. mulzy
    *If* this shift in the NWP materialises then we have to look for Scandi heights in the day 10-15 range. It's a long way off and very little is showing in the modelling at the moment (maybe ECM day 10 giving a hint).
  3. mulzy
    ECM day 10 very amplified - is this the next chase or just a straw to cling onto to?
  4. mulzy
    As I was saying yesterday, we need to look for the next chase. It's game over in a big way!
  5. mulzy
    Eps mean very similar to this morning (maybe not quite as cold) during days 4-7. Days 8-9 much more amplified - not quite the perfect configuration for the UK yet but trending the right way. We may have to concede Xmas/Boxing days and start chasing days 7-10. Don’t shoot me but lots of potential.
  6. mulzy
    Scandi high by day 10 on GFS. This is the next chase guys!
  7. mulzy
    Slightly disappointing news in that the MOGREPS have trended milder on the latest run (at least for the south).
  8. mulzy
    We need to wait for the clusters to come out, but the mean eps by day 7 is quite a bit colder than last night's suite. I have a feeling the weighting of the ecm det solution is much lower in this morning's suite when compared to last night. Looks like the eps is following the gefs for a change!
  9. mulzy
    Early news on the mean eps days 4-6 - not a huge change, but the cold filters south much faster and the 0C (850) isotherm has cleared the south coast during Boxing day. Better than last night's suite.
  10. mulzy
    Personally I think UKMO has got this nailed. However the ECM not on board is a *big* worry.
  11. mulzy
    ECM = pants. Next! Note: might get some decent amplification in FI but for the period that most people are interested in, it's poor. no point sugar coating it.
  12. mulzy
    Indeed CC, a mild (10C) is guaranteed for the south on Xmas and Boxing days if ECM verifies. Worst of the solutions up to day 5 this morning.
  13. mulzy
    ECM fairly meh at day 4. The little runner at the base of the low is very shallow. Let's see how it pans out but I'm not that confident myself.
  14. mulzy
    Early view of eps up to day 9 is underwhelming - nowhere near as good as the gefs. Disappointed!
  15. mulzy
    MOGREPS 60/40 for cold/mild for London 26th-28th. Trending the right way!
  16. mulzy
    FWIW the mean EPS up to day 10 very similar to last night - maybe the cold/warm boundary a touch further north in the day 4-7 period and maybe a tad more amplified by day 10.
  17. mulzy
    Don;t shoot me but ECM day 10 shows promise. Very amplified.
  18. mulzy
    ECM poor up to day 6. Looks like it will be mild and wet for southern parts of the country in the run-up to and including Xmas (23/24/25/26).
  19. mulzy
    ECM poor. Hopefully it’s on the mild side of the envelop.
  20. mulzy
    ECM day 5 looks good to me.
  21. mulzy
    Early view of the eps confirms the knife edge position days 5-7. What is clear though is days 8-10 are colder than last few suites.
  22. mulzy
    Stop moaning! Even if its 4C and rain (which is unlikely to be over much of the UK) , it's only weather. Yes, we coldies love our snow but it's not the end of the World especially in these times.
  23. mulzy
    Stronger block over Greenland (this morning's eps vs yesterday morning set).
  24. mulzy
    Low risk chance. What is a worry is a west based -NAO in the medium term. That needs monitoring. Hopefully we'll just about avoid it....
  25. mulzy
    We desperately need @Tim Bland and his snow charts!
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