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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    Close but no cigar on the ECM (at least for the southern half of the country). As I mentioned earlier the eastward progression of the southerly tracking lows is the problem - the jet is buckling over continental Europe raising heights in SE Euope. Still in the game though!
  2. mulzy
    Trending the wrong way guys. Need a decent ECM. Another problem that the eps picked up last night is not enough eastward progression of the southerly tracking lows - heights are beginning to rise over south east Europe resulting in lows stalling. Let's hope that this trend reverses. Meanwhile eyes down for the ECM.
  3. mulzy
    ECM Det in FI (days 6 to 10) is fantastic. But it is FI - we need to count this down!
  4. mulzy
    EPS not quite as good as this morning's suite - pattern is just a little bit too north. Pendulum has move a little away from deep cold but I would still expect significant snow chances across the suite.
  5. mulzy
    4-5C for Heathrow (raw temps from model run)
  6. mulzy
    Early view of the eps day 9-11 an improvement on last night and better than this mornings GEFS. Seems like the pattern is a little further south - though it’s knife edge as ever!
  7. mulzy
    This morning’s GEFS following last night’s EPS. Quite progressive with a southerly tracking jet. Just need the pattern a little bit further south to calm our nerves. We are still in the game albeit trending the wrong way slightly.
  8. mulzy
    Ext *mean* eps an improvement on recent runs as the core of higher heights is further north allowing colder air to advect in quicker.
  9. mulzy
    At that range, of course it is. There is always a chance that things will correct further south though. Too early to tell as we need to look at the whole range of medium forecasting tools to come up with a reasonable indication of what may happen in 12-15 days time. MJO projection looks favourable as of last night - my worry is the the Strat and how that interfaces with the troposphere. Even then, who knows?
  10. mulzy
    Ext mean EPS broadly similar to last few runs. Hints of some retrogression towards Greenland in the outer reaches. Overall looks like a decent suite. If only the core of higher heights were 700 miles further north, it wold be perfect.
  11. mulzy
    No point sugar coating things, the ECM Det is poor. Let’s see where it fits within its ensemble suite.
  12. mulzy
    Ext EPS broadly similar to last night's - the core of higher heights still hasn't reached the optimal level of latitude but the good news is the there are significantly lower heights over the Med. Trending the correct way albeit slowly.
  13. mulzy
    Yes, a good day 10 from ECM. Will the high topple slightly into Scandi and give us a monster easterly - who knows?
  14. mulzy
    Ext eps mean very similar to last night. Strong mid Scandi heights - the trend is moving those heights further north day by day - let's hope it continues. UK Temps mild from days 5-11 then trending back towards normal / slightly below normal through the day 12-15 period.
  15. mulzy
    12z extended eps mean suggests *very* strong Sceuro heights - will be interesting to see the DeBilt ensembles if any colder runs are beginning to feed through.
  16. mulzy
    UKMO (a very good model) says no sadly. Let's see where ECM fits before making the final call but it looks trough disruption scenario is the outsider at the moment.
  17. mulzy
    Interesting UKMO and ECM charts at day 7...
  18. mulzy
    Agreed, the focus should be mid-month onward - plenty of options for something colder. Blocking signal to the east and north east has remained strong and there are tentative signs of that spreading westwards in the medium term. The ECM sub-seasonal will potentially give us some clues later...
  19. mulzy
    Light snow here in Raynes Park - don't think it is settling.
  20. mulzy
    I tend to agree, but in the short term, cold options are still on the table. Looking further ahead into December, there are ominous signs of a very +NAO setting up - we desperately need help from the Strat to keep us in the 'cold game' in the medium term.
  21. mulzy
    4.0C and 95mm please
  22. mulzy
    Underwhelming runs this morning (UKM, GFS). Too much energy in the northern arm not allowing wedges to form. If ECM follows then the pendulum has moved to a mobile westerly flow in the medium term.
  23. mulzy
    I know the mean can hide a multitude of sins but the mean eps days 6-9 look very good.
  24. mulzy
    Early view of the mean EPS days 9-11 suggest heights in mid-Atlantic and heights to the north east. Lower heights over Europe and in the Greenland locale. The good news is that the low height anomaly over Greenland is much less intense, I would say the ECM Det has only limited support from its ensemble suite.
  25. mulzy
    Ext mean EPS not showing any significant Scandi heights - main story is low heights from Greenland diving into Europe. Significant mid Atlantic heights remain.
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