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Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    I would put it at a 80% chance that GFS is wrong.
  2. mulzy
    UK high -> Sceuro high -> Scandi high. That’s the evolution I am looking for. Need things to align but that’s what we need to be watching out for in FI.
  3. mulzy
    Week 5 is good. The countdown is on!
  4. mulzy
    The day 10 mean is pretty ominous. Let’s hope we can scrape a decent cluster in FI.
  5. mulzy
    Which is not going to deliver for most of lowland Southern England. I’d rather have a benign Bartlett and 15C.
  6. mulzy
    Scandi high if FI is probably one of the options on the table (after seeing that ECM run). Let’s see what the clusters say..
  7. mulzy
    ECM suggests a mild Xmas for the majority. Lower heights around Iceland suggest this run will continue mild if we get some tragic phasing. Let’s see…
  8. mulzy
    It can be consistently wrong. The king (ECM) says no and the UKMO says no - history has taught us coldies that if the UKMO is not in board, you can forget it. Let’s wait for the better ensemble suites (EPS and MOGREPS) to confirm or otherwise the increasingly milder outlook. Not a fan of France Frosty? Any reason for this?
  9. mulzy
    ECM and UKMO say no to chilly Xmas. Let’s see what the EPS and MOGREPS say. Form horse is for the GEFS to flip to mild (may take a few suites though)
  10. mulzy
    Question for the experts, has there ever been a time where there was a strong stratospheric PV and *sustained* cold/snow over the UK?
  11. mulzy
    Poor charts for the UK this morning. Even though the patterns are from usual, Euro heights is the theme going forward for the next week or so as evidenced in the ops and ensemble suite right out to day 15.
  12. mulzy
    Day 7 ECM should show heavy snow on the boundary between arctic air and sub tropical air. Northern England / southern Scotland perhaps.
  13. mulzy
    Word of warning: Little support for the GFS from the GEM and UKMO det runs.
  14. mulzy
    Euro heights remain a problem in the medium term. Somehow we need these to drain away in the 8-15 day period to deliver us the potential of northern blocking which is still there. One to watch.
  15. mulzy
    It *is* a pathway to cold. Yes, needs a few things to align but that chart has great potential.
  16. mulzy
    Write off the UKMO model at your peril. It is still probably an outside chance but that solution is in the mix. It has been supported by a minority (20%ish) of its MOGREPS suite as well.
  17. mulzy
    A nice covering here (1-2cm) on all surfaces. Just east enough to get some of the action. Obviously others to the east and north of me have done much better (including central London!)
  18. mulzy
    More chance of the latter. This could be the year!
  19. mulzy
    I am such making an assertion of a chart 180 hours away - it's FI anyway. A pumped Euro ridge is one of the options on the table. There was no mention of certainty - just a comment on a chart.
  20. mulzy
    Icon 180 hrs is not a good chart. The two lows will phase pumping up the Euro ridge.
  21. mulzy
    Icon so close to delivering a bullseye for the south…
  22. mulzy
    MOGREPS upgrading all the time. Solid support for it to remain cold. Just a few runs go to mild in London.
  23. mulzy
    ECM day 7 is awesome - only topped by UKMO day 7 in my opinion. What a start to the day - very positive.
  24. mulzy
    Yes, but those low heights to the north of the UK are a worry. Hope there is no ugly phasing. Let's see.
  25. mulzy
    We shouldn't get too fussed about the snowline in days 7-10. Just wonder at the broadscale pattern across all the models - it's cold or even very cold.
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