SnowJoke
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Posts posted by SnowJoke
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Under medium level cloud now with a dark base, can smell convective rainfall but it appears to be evaporating before it hits the ground apart from the odd spot making it down... Possible hope yet later this evening looking at the radar, feeling incredibly sticky outside at the minute and the wind has completely dropped, very calm and still.
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Small clip of what i shot earlier, not edited well and my camera work is abit dodgy so please excuse that!
Just wondering what sort of thing i was seeing on the right hand edge of the cloud.
Best seen if the video is sped up, cheers
Rapidly rising motion on the back edge or inflow area of the storms, with rotation further to the left without a doubt super cellular. Very nice video
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Who ever said the English were mad we're totally wrong, the French appear to be bonkers. Watching the live webcam on Le Havre beach and there are nutters walking about clutching umbrellas with CG Lightning coming down
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I think I may be in the firing line of a supercell...
I live just to the top of the 'red zone', and its tracking that way....
A Possibility need to be watched closely, other cells in the area are dying electrically and on the live lightning plotter there does seem to be a distinct rightward shift on the cell lightning wise, had been moving north eastwards for a long time.
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Been quite cloudy and hazy all morning here with a layer of cirrostratus cloud, how ever the temperature has still managed to climb above 22'c now. The sky has cleared and I can see some large towering cumulus developing, so still the possibility of some heavy showers later on, BBC Weather seems to think most activity will be further north and east again than what was forecast yesterday.
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waiting for Tuesday...CAPE aprox 4000! dew points around 24°C and temperatures around 35°C....awesome!
Just make sure you stay safe and inform others if you see anything dangerous coming, that level of atmospheric ingredients has TROUBLE written all over it....
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Be interesting to see what happens in these parts tomorrow, wasn't really expecting anything notable to be honest, but having just seen the Estofex forecast the situation seems to have moved along fairly rapidly since I looked at the models lunchtime. I'm guessing all that extreme MLCAPE being released over in France & Benelux is going to overspill into the south east triggering some home grown cells, with a chance of an overnight MCS pushing up during the early hours of Tuesday. Looking good
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Shame you don't live closer to me Gordon, i'd be more than happy to pop round when theres something heading your way and see if we can work on getting you over your phobia, i have a phobia of dogs, i really can't be near a dog thats not on a lead, i feel for you mate,it must be so tough.
Quite a few people on this forum live in or near Bedworth. Think they should meet up and run some save Gordon parties and get him over his phobia, nothing beats enjoying a good storm.
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Glad to see cells on the map and some folks are getting a storm or two. Back here in MK there has been a lot of very nice defined convection this afternoon, but the upper winds appear to be very strong, with all towers getting to a certain height then being ripped apart by the upper winds before they can top out and become glaciated.
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Not wrong that cell in Belgium is either on steroids or is gulping vast quantities of Red Bull. Kicking out that much lightning it must be a Supercell
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Definitely a cap in place today, cumulus try to develop and stop all at a certain height. If surface temperatures had gotten a little higher there may have been a chance of things exploding over towards the east and south east. Showers that have been firing over Wales are definitely down to orographic lift, the mountains helping to break the inversion,
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ok, lightning archive from midnight - midday today, quite impressive, and just goes to show that this plume event generally was far from a bust with nearly 8000 sferic detections for the 12 hour period
image © netweather.tv
Put that image away it's taunting me, MK right bang in the middle of that lightning free gap.
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A thundery shower over Cornwall now.
Hope yet then of seeing something later on this afternoon. My only hope is the faster clearance of the cold front and rising temperatures in any sunshine can build a higher level of SBCAPE than the models have forecast. I think the lowish levels on the latest GFS output were banking on the CF moving northwards much slower today.As I said earlier, just been heavy rain here, and having popped out round the corner to buy some smokes, the humidity seems to have unleashed a swarm of annoying small biting midgey's.
Edit: the current bun is now popping through the thinning cloud, feels very warm...
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Nothing thundery around here at all, just a hour or so of moderate to heavy rainfall which is now clearing northwards, thoroughly rubbish to be honest considering how the storms over France intensified last night and managed to split east and west leaving the middle south of the country storm free
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I'd say watching the lightning movement and looking at the sat loop over France, numerous cells are firing up from the earlier nantes super cell and looks like forming an MCS later on heading directly north towards IOW and up through central southern england during the early hours. Also possible they could form a large bow wave and push up fairly quickly affecting most of the south coast from devon all the way across to sussex, worth watching the evolution if you can stay up.
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Nothing stormy around here apart from my stomach, been back and forth to the hospital the last few days visiting a relative in critical care. Been living on sugar free Red Bull and sweets which contain iso malt having just read the ingredients. All I can say is there's a lot of turbulence in the lower levels, and some violent straight line winds..... lol
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do we even need anything to happen over france? I thought we were looking at a pre-frontal trough coming in from the west?
Indeed correct, it's the advection of the Theta-W plume coming north from France that will interact with the weather front from the SW that will destabilise the plume causing elevated thunderstorms to develop. The last thing we want is a huge cluster of surface based storms to develop over northern France pushing a blanket of cloud northwards inhibiting any development later on this evening.
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Lol this forum cracks me up sometimes. Still very early days and we have Gordon wishing for no weather and William wishing for an apocalypse.
What will be will be, no amount of wishing or hope casting will change the outcome, just sit back, relax and see what unfolds -
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Not sure I would totally agree with the suggestion that the Met Office are useless at forecasting thundery outbreaks.
I think there have been significant improvements, but convective forecasting is difficult and they get it wrong sometimes. As do I for that matter and we are totally reliant on model output.
I agree, the Met Office do tend to pick up on the trend if any thundery activity is due, however the forecasts on the BBC tend to vary a lot depending on who is presenting. Especially when it comes to terminology and language that is used, the majority of forecasters use the term thundery rain or heavy possibly thundery showers these days. I'm pretty sure it's down to blanket formatting and the nanny state principal. Most people are pretty clueless when it comes to weather terminology and understanding, that's why they removed isobar charts from TV broadcasts as most people had no idea what they meant. I think if they started mentioning severe, super cells a possibility in broadcasts most of the nation would go into panic mode for the forthcoming apocalypse.
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2500j/kg cape and a -8 LI right over me!That's enough to send me to the moon lol.What an opportunity for a major chase this could be. This forum could be on the brink of meltdown this time in a few days or so !
Wouldn't count your chickens yet, or even the eggs for that matter. Normally as the week progresses the basket makes a steady eastward progression. Has done for the last six or seven years now, I'm hoping the gfs is correct but past experience tells me not to get excited until it's bang on target within a 24 hour time frame.
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Just had a really heavy shower from a very dark looking angry cloud here in MK, looks very stormy outside, might go bang fingers are crossed
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Cloudy and wet here, moderate rain, but it's very large drops falling almost convective in nature so a hell of a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Tonight looks a little crazy rainfall wise, GFS has the heaviest rainfall further north, but other models and Estofex feel the main threat being to the SE & EA, looking at the GFS the rainfall totals where it does make landfall will be excessive, I suspect there could well be some flooding reported tomorrow.
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Looks very quiet at the minute in western europe, however to the east it's going nuts, storms in nearly every eastern country. Down in MK today it's lovely and sunny with a temp of 16'c and rising, if it wasn't so windy i'd be tempted to bust the bbq out later.
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Well, I wouldn't say it was a boring day but watching last night's BBC's weather forecast, I was getting excited and today all we had was light rain and a few heavy showers.
That's the problem, BBC Kiss of Death. As soon as they mention widespread thunderstorms, your lucky to see any at all. Same thing happens in winter when they forecast widespread snow events. I'd say they are right about three out of ten times these days.
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Storm and convective discussion 9th June
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by SnowJoke
Just had another spell of moderate rainfall here, just enough to dampen the ground. Sky is getting very dark in places and looking very unstable in the mid levels, also still very humid and warm. It feels like it's going to go BANG! but will have to wait and see...
Watching the Aachen webcam and it's gone black as night there, lightning is incredible at the minute.