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Everything posted by Paul_1978
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What do you mean “the new year looks mild”, that’s a T+384 chart! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well I must be looking at a different run as there is some great wintry potential for Scotland, certainly for 23rd December onwards. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at this morning’s output, does anyone think we’ll be looking at the next named storm next week? There’s certainly some potent looking low pressure systems around. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Slim to none. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep, strengthens the jet stream -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ECM is the model that appears to be most respected amongst professionals and amateurs alike so you’ve got to take its output seriously. Also I’ve posted this on here recently, but I was surprised to see a pro forecaster on Twitter recently (Ian Fergusson) appearing to rate the “best” models in his view as UKMO, ECM, GEM, ICON and JMA, with the GFS apparently rated last. Consequently since then I’ve been taking a lot of GFS output with a pinch of salt, and paying more attention to the likes of GEM and ICON than I did previously. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Arrives Saturday, gone by Monday evening and back into a northerly! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which model are those from? Cropped images don't show -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Snowy do we think? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed - there's more mileage in this story yet. Edge of the seat stuff! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not necessarily. Ian F replied to a couple of Tweets recently and suggested that his preferred models were UKMO, ECM, GEM, ICON, and JMA, with GFS in last place! -
So there we have it, Ian F’s focus is on UKMO, ECM, and GEM. ICON rated to GFS appears to be less favoured!
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Paul_1978 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One thing I can never work out is how do you know where the front will lie - is there and easy/foolproof way to tell from a chart like this? -
Low pressure systems sliding into cold air and under the block is very much reminiscent of some of the classic snowy periods of the 70s and 80s. If anywhere in the UK manages to avoid decent snowfall in the next couple of weeks they would be very unlucky. Is this spell going to go down in history as one of the classics? Let's see... things bode well for now, but there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we get to next week. One thing is for sure, the model runs keep on giving - this is amongst the best period of model watching I've seen and I've been here since 2005.
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
Paul_1978 replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I would imagine wages. I have to say the Met Office are poor payers, certainly in the IT Department. I spent some time look at jobs and the salaries and just not attractive compared to other similar jobs elsewhere.