Paul_1978

I prefer “intriguing”

You can link to the Tweet and then the original source is maintained/credited

Exactly. Everyone was having a coronary the other day until the ensembles came out and everyone calmed down

Lots of excitement in the model thread about snow chances, but the MetO continues to state snow only on windward coasts and high ground. No mention of any widespread snow or much at lower levels.

The latest BBC weather for the week forecast recorded this afternoon show plenty of snow for Scotland next week, some showers on the east coast of England, and flurries in the north west, but not a lot elsewhere. The forecast took us up to Fri 9th Dec.

You’re thinking of that magical boundary of the M4 - where it usually rains to the south of it

No one has said this?

I have to say the output looks very good at face value and synoptically stunning, but latest BBC Weather For The Week doesn’t particularly show any kind of wintry nirvana in the next 7 days. Even next Friday temps are well into single figures across most of the UK. I want widespread snow as much as the next person but looks like anything like this is still a week/10 days away at least. https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001fr7k

What? Are you sure?!

Model Tweets thread

Before the 12's start to trickle through later this afternoon, I think it's worth remembering that even in the best winters things ebb and flow. You're never going to get wall to wall cold for weeks on end. So the charts today might start to look unfavourable, or they might continue the cold theme. Either way it's 1st December today and winter is only just starting, there is a long way to go. You just have to look back at the archive charts and run through some of the so called "classic" winters and you'll always have milder spells in and amongst the cold periods. Overall things look good at the moment if you are of the cold persuasion, and for those of us who have been on here for years there's no doubt this is classic model watching. Enjoy it and don't take it too seriously

A temp chart for 14th Dec! Hardly worth mentioning.

Paging @Weather-history to let us know when we have had monster Greenland highs in the past and how long they lasted

It's 29th November!! Winter hasn't even started!

I don't think there is a new GFS today - I'm sure someone posted yesterday that it has been put back a few days.

Yes indeed. I wondered where the thread had gone but I found it!

I think that the current state of play after the 12z’s so far is that we’re in a good place overall. A variation on a theme, but the bigger picture is all good.

I’ve got a lot of people blocked and therefore only see posts from the posters who I know don’t go over the top or post daft one liners, and it makes for a much more pleasant reading on the thread!

It was only yesterday that it was looking like 2nd/3rd Dec before we got any sort of continental flow, and now it’s been brought forward with better results. Let’s just hope the trend continues on the overnight runs and we’re not back to square 1.

We need rain, not chilly and dry.

Good question. I remember a few years ago reading that the 5 day forecast is now as accurate as the 3 day forecast from the 1970s. However I religiously watch BBC Weather For The Week every day, and it's amazing how inaccurate the forecasts are just 3-4 days ahead sometimes. I am often looking ahead, for example for rain due to an outdoor hobby. It regularly says it's going to rain in a certain part of the country, but when the day arrives it's dry.

One of the most interesting and exciting runs you've ever seen? Have you not been model watching for long?

I noticed that too - lots of trees seems to be shedding their leaves very early this year