Paul_1978

It's wasn't the intention of my post to wind anyone up.

Not everyone likes hot weather. Plenty might be quite pleased about the output. Impartiality

I haven't minded the weather so far this summer (for Wakefield). Appreciate it's been a bit grim in the south. We've had a warm spell for a couple of weeks in early June, but I've not particularly minded the slightly cooler weather, but then again we haven't had the rain that has been had in the south. As I've said before, I don't mind anything that supresses the grass pollen levels, but I'm on holiday later in July and August, and grass pollen is over by then, so would be quite happy for a bit of a warm up, but preferably nothing over 25C, as that is more than adequate, 22C/23C would be perfect

Those type of charts aren’t to be trusted at the 10-14 day range surely?

Good for hayfever sufferers though

Absolutely perfect day here in Wakefield. A few days ago Sunday was forecast to rain all day. As it happens it’s partially sunny, dry, warm not hot, ideal temperature. I’ve got jobs done in the garden and it’s much better than when it’s hot and humid. For me, we can have these conditions for the rest of the summer.

I have to say being a severe hayfever sufferer and having a bad week this week, I am very much looking forward to rain and a cool down, as it helps supress grass pollen levels. The sooner and longer lasting the better for me. However, as grass pollen subsides into early/mid July, I'll let you have the warmth and sun back then. Deal?!

Agreed - a perfect summer so far for me!

I went for a run yesterday too - much better conditions for running at about 17C vs the 24C from the other day.

Yes I totally agree - it's freezing cold but there is no accumulated snow in much of the country. Not a Feb '91 by any stretch. However, with the cold established, you just never know when there's going to be some frontal snow. I was looking at the famous Ian McCaskill forecast on YouTube from Feb 1991, and we had that low pushing up from France which gave us all the fantastic historical event that we all refer back to. The cold is here, the patterns will change, but sooner or later there's got to be a low pressure system in the vicinity to give us (as in most of the UK) some frontal snow surely. Onto the 12z's to watch for this happening!

Really?! That's not the impression I get from the 0z and 6z runs.

T+384 charts never come close to happening. It's fine posting these charts (it's the model output thread after all), and I'm pleased that you like them, but I think most of us here have a bit of realism when it comes to anything at that timescale

Nice to look at but at 384 hours it may as well go in the bin!

Now snowing in Wakefield after 20 hours of rain. Cornflake snowflakes!

Relentless rain in Wakefield for about 20 hours now. A few flooding issues locally too.

Well well. I waited 24 hours, and I’m quoting my own post from yesterday.... Before the 12z’s on Friday, I was convinced that the cold spell was going to be a Sunday to Thursday affair. Run after run for a few days was consistently showing south-westerlys returning into Fri 12th Feb, across most models. And lo and behold, the “monumental switch” I referred to has only gone and actually happened!! You would now think that as the Atlantic tries to push in later next week (and fails?) that somewhere will be up for a good dumping of snow as the fronts bump into the cold air, stall, and get pushed back? And not only that we have a frigid week to come from the east. I’m not convinced yet we’ll be having a Feb 1991 repeat but you never know. Model watching at its best!

Unless there is a monumental shift in the models this afternoon, we will have to expect the cold spell is a Sunday to Friday event. It’s not a Feb 1991 repeat. However, promising signs of the cold returning after a mild blip next weekend. Enjoy the week all - we spend half our lives chasing cold spells and we’re just about to get one, and the chase for the next one may just be around the corner!

To be fair though, the GFS has pretty much consistently shown the end of the cold-snap-that-hasn’t-started-yet next Thursday for a few runs now. There was a hint on the 0z of the low not being so deep and perhaps elongating and sliding under the block. So it’s not one run or any more of a shocker than it was yesterday at the same time. However as we all know the GFS has a tendency to overblow lows in the Atlantic and they often weaken as the timeframe gets closer, and if that happens I don’t fancy it pushing the cold away as easily. Intriguing ECM coming up!

If you look at the 0z ECM from last night it pretty much did that. Alas not on the 12z though.

I hope you're right - but we need to keep an eye on the low following behind. Whilst the GFS slid it under the block on the 0z, it didn't on the 6z or the 12z. Be interesting to see what the ECM does with it. Sunday to Wednesday look great for coldies - Thurs onwards is the next hurdle to keep an eye on if we want longevity out of this!

Last updated yesterday - a lot can change in 24 hours. Perhaps for the better!

Absolutely phenomenal overnight runs. The biggest upgrade for me this morning is this - as of last night, the low approaching from the west was unable to progress eastwards beyond the south coast into Europe, giving us a slack south westerly flow, and most models were showing this. Basically the easterly lasting around 4 days. However..... ..... as of this morning the low is sliding under the UK on Weds into Thurs, maintaining the easterly feed, and no doubt giving snow to boot. So that’s why I think the overnight runs are positive!

They are indeed - cheers Paul!!

That’s the benchmark for me, I remember it well. The snow event that got me into the weather. Opening the curtains that morning, aged 13, and seeing the complete whiteout outside, 1ft or more of snow, it took my breath away. I hope everyone has that feeling once in their life.... magical!

Portrait and landscape view. Sorry to ask for this diversion.