Paul_1978

Surely the main impact of this is less likelihood of an Atlantic onslaught over the coming weeks.

If it turns out like that, I’ll bare my a**e on the town hall steps!!

Interesting GFS 06z. Basically, a low pressure systems hang around over and above the British Isles from tomorrow all the way through to T+240 (12th Dec). Temperatures don't seem to be particularly low to me, so perhaps lots of showers of rain and sleet around, with only snow at height. This is very similar to ECM until T+168 but then the differences really start to show (I'm sure there are differences upstream before this). In summary, really interesting model watching to be had. All winter forecasts are seemingly predicting a mild and wet winter, but there are lots of other things going on in the background that could lead to it staying cold.

You weren't being quoted

Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?

Not sure if it will be a “beast from the east”, but you never know how these things will develop. ps Love your poems. Keep ‘em coming

Top image interesting. Just did a quick and dirty assessment and came up with: 4 with a north easterly component 18 easterly 4 westerly 4 north westerly 1 south westerly 1 northerly

I'm not sure what this means in practical terms for the UK. I deduce that an "arctic low" is not a good thing?

Well the ECM at T+240 looks like the next frame (if there was one) would show the Atlantic returning in some way, so perhaps something to keep an eye on. Long way out though obviously.

I think he means you @West is Best

Steady heads required mate - plenty of time for things to go wrong. We’ve been there before. Just take each day as it comes and keep everything crossed

I know you’ve hidden your battery percentage Steve but you can’t fool us - keep your eye on it!

No chart attached to your post

I’m certainly seeing something blocked on the horizon - my blocked list.

Note to self: ”Check ECM run personally before looking at comments on the thread”. I think it’s a pretty good run - high establishes, will hopefully be sunny or foggy, and frosty on an evening. That’s OK. It’s not the Atlantic and it’s a good position to be in on 23rd November. “Satisfied” is the word I’d use at this stage.

T+300 hours that though mate. Not a concern.

And who doesn’t love a finger of sausage?

You don't have to press enter for a new line - your posts always look like poems

Not forgetting those words and phrases that should result in an instant ban! "Close but no cigar" "It's got potential" "More runs needed" "At this juncture" "Scuppered by a shortwave" "Sceuro, Griceland, Scrussion..." "Snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas" "It's a long way to back cold from there" "There will be missing flight data, it's Christmas" "There will be a chance of snaw" "It's looking toasty up there" (posted under a T+384 strat chart) "No change to the 06z so far" (whilst posting under a T+3 chart...yawn) "It's game over" (posted in November before winter has even started) "Peturbation xx" has it nailed "Will it snow in Carlisle"

I'm not sure.... the MO only talks about wintry precipitation at the end of November (which is 300 hours away - well outside of the reliable in the charts), then "unsettled periods of wind and rain", and only for an increasing chance of wintry precipitation into mid-December - well beyond the T+384 period. As such there is nothing unsurprising in the output in my view. Is only 17th November today (still autumn), and a long way to go before we need to start seeing decent wintry output coming into a more regular view in the model output.

I wish I knew what that meant.... "ensemble bifurcation", "EOF predictions", "real world impacts varied for NW Europe"... what kind of 'real world impacts'?!?!? Presumably by varied he means a mixture of different weather types - nothing specific to write home about then?

“Best power cuts”?

We’re you expecting something different in this Autumn month of November?

That’s basically what the MO have been suggesting in their extended output for some time now, and the text hasn’t really changed, so perhaps not surprising we’re seeing it in the output. Loooooong way out though.... plenty of time for it to go wrong