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Paul_1978

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Everything posted by Paul_1978

  1. Paul_1978
    17th Dec is 360 hours away. On the 06z op, 17th Dec was showing a WNW wind, and on the 0z preceding was a SW. And on the preceding 18z a straight southerly. So southerly (18z), south westerly (0z), west north westerly (06z). Not looked at the GEFS mean, but there is no trend on the op, far from it. 17th Dec will be at T+348 on this run and will be completely different again. Lots to be resolved before we start concerning ourselves with 17th December.
  2. Paul_1978
    The ECM has been showing colder options at 216 and 240 for a week now, and it never gets any closer. We really need to see them getting down to 168/192, it’s always carrot and stick. Keep the faith!
  3. Paul_1978
    Indeed. Zilch this side of T+240 and what looks like a very wet and miserable run after Weds next week.
  4. Paul_1978
  5. Paul_1978
  6. Paul_1978
    We had a short range model thread once and if I remember rightly, Knocker was in it on his own! A feel a "normal" model thread, and a moans/ramping thread for the rollercoaster crew would work well.
  7. Paul_1978
    The ECM NH view is most interesting this morning in that the vortex never really establishes and is somewhat split . Take this at T+168 for example. Surely a good thing going forward?
  8. Paul_1978
    At last, someone has posted a strat chart that’s not at T+384!!
  9. Paul_1978
    I don’t think I have ever seen one graph so scattered and then the next with hardly any scatter at all. Seems unusual to have consecutive charts showing that level of change from seemingly not having a clue on one run, to being on completely the same page on the next run.
  10. Paul_1978
    Not siding, but it’s the first of the 12z’s to appear so will naturally get a lot of interest early doors.
  11. Paul_1978
    Yes, it’s the highest section of motorway in the UK for sure. Which is the highest motorway in Europe?
  12. Paul_1978
    Check this out. Fantastic viewing of the snow closing the M62 in 1979 due to snow. Not sure of the date but would assume Jan/Feb 1979.
  13. Paul_1978
    Charts at 324 and 348 hours away are not worth worrying about!
  14. Paul_1978
    At T+324 hours I wouldn’t be overly concerned!
  15. Paul_1978
    January for me, especially if its dull and wet. A cold snowy January is a completely different kettle of fish of course. Can't say I'm a big fan of June and July as it's peak hayfever season which is a killer for me. On balance though, a mild/wet January is just the pits.
  16. Paul_1978
    It always at T+384 though and never gets any nearer. If we get these charts at sub 300 hours then it might get interesting
  17. Paul_1978
    Well the showers have really intensified in Wakefield in the last 2 hours or so, quite squally too. Looking at the radar, there’s plenty more coming from the north west this evening. A filthy horrible night.
  18. Paul_1978
    I get the nagging feeling that we’ve been here before with great early synoptics, and come winter it all goes to pot. Take example the wintry blast in Nov 2001 that @Weather-history posted about in another thread..... Winter 2001/02 was not particularly memorable I don’t think. I’m keeping my feet firmly on the ground for now
  19. Paul_1978
    Good job it’s only 5th November then eh! Nothing wasted this early.
  20. Paul_1978
    I have just caught up on the last 4 pages of the thread, and I have established that: The PV is weak and staying that way The PV is strengthening The trop and strat are going to stay disconnected The trop and strat are going to recouple "It bodes well for winter" "It's not good news for winter" Glad that's sorted then.
  21. Paul_1978
    1. Posters on the model rollercoaster - massive highs at snowmageddon 200 hours away, followed by wrist slashing at 72 hours when it's not going the way they thought. 2. People who post with a "hubris" style.
  22. Paul_1978
    Tagged him so he sees it! @chionomaniac
  23. Paul_1978
    Not sure about "battering" us - just looks like it turns into a normal autumnal depression.
  24. Paul_1978
    Look for a desktop scanner with slide scanning functionality - best solution overall.
  25. Paul_1978
    People will do well to remember this in Winter when posting charts at T+1000 - a completely futile exercise.
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