Paul_1978

Is anyone expecting much next week? 21st onwards is the focus. 10/11 days away yet.

Exactly the same as yesterday. As you were.

22nd Jan **is** mid-winter.

Day 6 to 10 is 16th to 20th Jan - i don’t think anyone is worried about what happens then. It’s the post 20th/21st Jan period that is the focus.

That's OK, because cold and snow hunters are not anticipating anything within 10 days anyway?

EC at T+240 is still only 19th Jan, short of the touted date of 21st Jan, so not in range of the EC yet. Plus most of the GFS eye candy charts are 300 hours plus unless I’m mistaken - so for me the bigger picture is the same, decent/cold and snow won’t show within 240 hours yet. Exciting few days of model watching ahead I hope!

The update is much of a muchness really - hasn't really changed for a while now.... still the same theme.

This is indeed the case in the time period that those graphs show (up to 23rd Jan). However many of us have been looking towards the end of Jan for some time now, which will not be reflected in these charts. T+384 on the NWP is still only 23rd Jan!

You don’t have to scroll through it - just click the down arrow at the top of the quoted post and it minimises it.

Feb? It says “towards the end of Jan”, not February.

What, at T+ 384 hours?

Are you hunting for cold IDO?

It doesn't say that.

Met Office update suggests a wet and stormy early January so this shouldn't be a surprise. Only after week 2 does the update suggest a potential change to cold. 15th Jan is 456 hours away yet. We won't be getting 15th Jan in model range (at T+384) for another three days yet. So for me, in the "hunt for cold" there is no point in worrying about model output for at least another 7-10 days yet until mid Jan starts to get into a semi-reliable timeframe. I'll keep taking a cursory glance at the models until then just in case anything unexpected happens in the meantime.

I’d rather be seeing this at under 200 hours!

You continue to surprise us IDO!

It’s a T+384 chart mate.....

There’s a few on here already doing that!

Are you living in some kind of bubble?

Par for the course at T+300 on a run-by-run basis.

Apologies, I've no idea why my posts only linked the Tweet and didn't embed. (I posted from iPhone).

https://twitter.com/simonleewx/status/1074641538125316103?s=21

https://twitter.com/metmanjames/status/1074600995290796032?s=21

They only go to 1st Jan though, and most of us are not expecting anything significant wintry until after that anyway? (Post-SSW territory).

Was a split even “on” other than in the far reaches of FI? Where did you see that it’s gone TU anyway?