Paul_1978

Pretty much same as yesterday

I can’t believe this thread is so quiet when we have some lovely looking potential north easterlies next week!

Can't argue with that, lovely stuff.

If you are referring to me, I did say I hoped my feedback was constructive (thus not a “complaint”). It’s not about that, as I said it’s about getting the balance right. It’s not about “having your cake and eating it”. Anyway, the models continue to tease....let’s hopes it’s not another wild goose chase. Plenty of winter left yet, is not as if we’re in March approaching April!

If we are asking people to cross post in two threads, or have mods copy posts into the “correct” thread, then I think we have identified a problem!

Regarding the threads - I understand why the mods did what they did - however for me the balance has tipped too much the other way in that there is just too much chaff in here. I personally don't like all the one liners, and a lot of the chit-chat is just inane. The other "focused" thread is just too quiet, although appreciate this may be due to the failed easterly. In summary, the balance is not quite right and I feel something has been lost with the new threads. Hope this is seen as constructive.

Still seem confident that it will turn cold in the first couple of days of Feb. Can’t really complain at that.

Fantastic update all things considered.

Aberdeenshire/Moray

Funnily enough I was looking at 10/11/12 Feb 1994 recently. A great easterly but not a lot of snow of I remember rightly. However we seem to have the potential for undercuts and approaching fronts this time, which we didn’t in ‘94.

Might be a daft question but why is there a lot of attention given to De Bilt when it’s in the Netherlands and we are in the UK? I note sometimes it’s mentioned even when there is no easterly wind in the offing.

To be fair as far as ECM goes it was 2 runs.

I guess this is still worth bearing in mind from 20 hours ago, if this still holds true?

Don’t you just know it.... waking up to a crap run.

When?! You haven't stated a timescale or posted a chart :)

You need to stop with the wild mood swings Feb. How is is game over? They are talking about cold - same as previously. “Snow over high ground with an increased risk to lower levels” - same as previously. In fact probably an upgrade as lower levels weren’t mentioned yesterday. “Details of disruptive snow uncertain” - disruptive snow wasn’t even mentioned yesterday! And uncertainly is obvious at this time scale anyway. “Milder interludes possible” - same as previously. “....These most likely in the south - same as yesterday. “... but with increased risk of snow further north” - not even mentioned yesterday. In fact I’d describe the whole piece as a huge upgrade. How you assess this as Game Over is absolutely beyond me.

Just been watching the Met Office live video. Regarding the ECM easterly in 8 days... currently assessed at around a 25% chance of happening, which is greater than normal for an easterly. It is one of the solutions, but not currently the most likely - they will assess the EC ensembles to determine the most likely solution and will be keeping an eye on it. Temps in Europe cold but not as cold as last year’s beast from the east. Nevertheless this scenario could still bring disruptive snow and significant windchill. In a nutshell, more uncertainty than usual as regards next week, but ECM more likely than the GFS. Fascinating model watching period coming up. Edit: ps no snow of note expected this week or at the weekend according to the video.

Seriously? It's 324 hours away - and with everything you have read about GFS, volatile output etc etc etc, is there a need to worry??

Half a metre of snow in the north of the UK?!

Are we thinking that the model output is not reflective of these changes yet then, and we should start seeing better charts in the very near future?

It is worth reminding ourselves that, in line with the Met Office outlooks, that cold is not anticipated to become established until at least 28th Jan (14 days from now, or T+348 if you like). Bear that in mind before being disappointed with the regular model output.... and remember the bigger picture, the signs of which are mainly favourable.

How come no one has said this before now?