loafer
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Everything posted by loafer
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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
loafer replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You sound like you are not a true believer.... [goes off to sharpen pitchfork and light flaming torch] -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
loafer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
The UK Snow Twitter Map is good in these sort of nowcast circumstances... https://uksnowmap.com/ -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
loafer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Hawkhurst snow shield standing firm... -
Although the line is further south than the warning, so subtle changes as we get closer.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
I suspect the reason is the wind direction...strong winds from NNE giving convection along a long fetch of the North Sea. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Take a look at this set of charts...Hatched area is snow. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/3h.htm -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
That is really quite sobering, given our own temp differential is ~20 degrees. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
The key to snow is cold, at the risk of stating the obvious. All of the models show deep cold coming in very early next week and, for example upper temps of -10 over Brighton. Compare that to -5 being a reasonable indicative threshold for snow amongst other indicators, and you can see the conditions are good. Next step required is precipitation and with easterlies this isn’t big masses of cloud like you see with storms coming over the Atlantic, but is convective showers where moisture is sucked up by winds passing over the sea and wet ground. This is where the snow is likely to come from and is looking hopeful. Only when we are 24-48 hours away will anyone have a cogent view on snow forecasting. -
Quoted for future use...! More seriously, the difference this time is the consistency with the models. Normally we have one outlier calling it diffferently and the models converge on a tepid compromise. This time they all think it’s going to be Baltic.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
I don’t think he is joking...snowing in Hawkhurst. -
SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Wintry mix in Hawkhurst, halfway between Hastings and Tunbridge Wells. Not settling. -
SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards
loafer replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Interesting. Models say DP should be 2 for you at midnight, and that seems to be what is holding back snow tomorrow as uppers are cold enough. One to watch closely. -
Light snow here in Hawkhurst, about 10 miles south of Tunbridge Wells.
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Not sure about that. I went around the southern M25 at about 4pm and all the signs said "Salt Spreading", which, given the rivers of water on the road, was the very definition of futility.
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And you, a non-believer - do you repent? Are you a snow-believer now...?!
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Very interesting...I wonder if the models are underplaying the snow probability on that basis - we have seen it before!