frozen_north

Be patient the British climate is notorious for let downs. Also anytime of the year is exciting and dont become a cold ramper by looking at the charts 200h+ and thinking its going to snow.

Thats going to be an excellent tool for cold/snow rampers. Scenario - Its November and the model shows easterlies for the whole of february and really cold temperatures. The rampers are going to go crazy. It will be interesting to see the charts though. Especially in FI land e.g. 180-384h to see how it compares to the gfs at this range.

The leaves here are starting to rapidly turn brown in within the past 2 days. The cooler weather to come should help make the place look more Autumnal.

What makes a record breaking month? Well one which has consistent high maximums and high minimums. September 06 had both of those. Having temperatures 2.5C above average throughout the whole month is pretty unusual. We just havent had a cool day in September. Temperatures peaking at 28C on the 21st is unusual again but can happen relativly easily if the synoptics are right. September may have been warm but who is to say October isnt going to be cool.

what does hpa mean, it stands for hectopascals. Well put simply it is the pressure at which the charts are modelled at. At the surface the pressure is usually round about 1000hpa. So I presume you are talking about where it says 500hpa. Well 500hpa is around half way up the troposphere at about 18,000ft.

I cant believe this, infact I can. Its only September and the charts happen to show some cold weather (well Average Autumn weather) and people are acting like its winter and its going to snow. Personally I cant wait for Autumn to set in but winter is still a bit away yet. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

I still dont see this winter being as cold as some of the people on this board are making out. Yes it may be cold in relation to a even larger teapot but could turn out to be average by the 1961-1990 average. What will make or break this winter much like everyother winter is the amount of snow we get. It may be cold but what good is that.

Even better if we has a negative AO and NAO

Well that sounds interesting, certainly different from what we have been used to the whole of the summer and most of this year..

Well here in Glasgow the coldest max has been 15C which is 1C below the September max.

Too right. The British weather is amazingly complex and has numerous different influences. But even within our shores there can by huge extremes of weather compared to the size of our islands. I'm sure if we lived in somewhere like the azores the met office wouldnt have to work that hard. Oh look its going to be sunny for the next week. But in the UK its a little more complicated.

I remember the Boxing day storm vividlay. I was coming home from dundee back to glasgow at about 9pm and it was crazy outside. At points the rain was so heavy you couldnt see out of the windscreen.

We had quotes like that last autumn. Infact we had every kind of hot/cold September/October followed by a mild/cold winter suggestions.

Fixed.

This one http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/NSMD/DRF/FW...weeks_13-16.gif is the best out of them. The whole of the Nothern Hemisphere is in a deep freeze, something out of the Day after Tommorow kind of theme. Would be interesting if it happened but it wont.

That December chart looks too good to be true as the saying goes with an average temperature that is 4C below the long term average. It does look odd how in December the Northern Hemisphere suddenly is covered in an average of -6C anomalies with large areas having -16C anomalies. The November and October charts look normal whereas December looks like the beggining of a new ice age.

Last winter also featured HP forming right above the UK which brought us dull cloudy days which werent cold or mild, just boring while the whole of Europe froze and was covered in snow. Last winter was so close to being cold and snowy but it wasnt. The end.

A toppler scenario is when you often get an area of LP passing over the UK and in its wake a ridge of HP which produces a northernly for a day or two untill the next LP comes crashing in off the atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html There you go.

Its a dreich day up here in Glasgow. Been raining all day and now its drizzling. Current temp - 10C Pressure - 1010 mb Visibility - 2200m

Windy with the heavy showers

Aye that was amazing thunder and lightling. It was just constant. Its gone off now.

I'll say 11.7C, 04C above average. Just based on instinct

I was saying that it is highly improbable that the average surface temperature of the earth would rise by 7C. This means it would rise to 22C from its current 15C. This isnt going to happen in the next 100 years. For if it happened the consequences would be unbelievable. Ices caps melting, glaciers melting, animals becoming extinct because they cannot adapt to the climate, large forest fires destroying vegetation releasing more CO2, deserts becoming larger, life unberable between the tropics with daily maxes averaging 45C. To use the phrase life wouldnt exist as we know it. Also with the temperatures rising the vast quantities of methane at the bottom of our oceans would start to boil as the temperature rises realeasing millions,billions of tons of methane which is a far more stronger greenhouse gas than CO2. The earth would just boil away and the greenhouse effect would run away getting faster and faster. Venus here we come. But then again it probably wont happen. A rise in temperatures of between 2-3C is more realistic.

7C wont happen, it is invented by the doomongers at greenpeace and the likes to scare everyone. Does nobody remember that the earth has gone through warming and cooling periods before and we are still technically in an ice age.