Snowly does it

Manley has been consistently 0.3 to 0.4 below the Hadley figure - some of the minima during the colder spell from 4th to 20th June seemed rather high and perhaps these or the maxima have been corrected. The period 4th - 20th June was pretty cool with a colder snap involved and its only really 24th onwards that was really warm and only the last 3 days that were 'hot'. More 'time' this month was cool but the warm spells were very warm, hence a month that is above average, but not by much. Just under 15 seems spot on to me - a few hot days doesn't undo all the work of a cool fortnight.

Today looks very similar - my rough calculations suggest 22.0 for today would get it up to a rounded up 15.3 before adjustments - very likely to be 15.2 before adjustments I think. Looking at Manley I think it will be an adjusted 14.9-15.1 now

Yeah Pershore failed to get above 19 for maxima Minima of 15 to add to yesterdays though so something like 19.5 to come for yesterday and last night's minima iro 14 I think with a warmer day today to add in and the blowtorch last two days. I tink finishing 15.1 or 15.2 on Hadley but Manley running 0.4 behind.... I guess 14.9 sounds like a reasonable, corrected, figure for the month now.

15.9 please

Manley is currently running 0.4 behind Hadley - therefore it is possible we may get a realtively large downward correction at month end. It looks like raw output will be around the 14.8-14.9 region, so the final figure is likely to be somewhere in the 14.5-15.0 area

In CET terms, the maxima/minima average lowest in Summer is 7.3 which has been recorded twice In recent times, June 2 1991 came in at 7.6 and is the fourth coldest summer day on record Thats about 3 by night and 12 by day I guess - a cold and clear night - like last night but colder, followed by a cloudy/wet day such as Sunday promises to be might get these sort of figures. Looks unlikely we will get a single figure CET day now - maxima will be a little too high I think. Yep - will likely be about 15.3 when it updates tomorrow and perhaps 14.5 or so the day after and then below the June average by the time we get to Sunday's update and maybe low 13s before things warm up again.

June 19 2004 and June 2 2001 both came in bang on 10 for the day (there were a couple of low 10s last June too) I am just going to check the synoptics for those days... June 19 2004 was a slack(ish) NW flow with upper air between 0 and -5 so there was probably some soft hail over the hills and the Highlands were no doubt 'interesting' for midsummer. June 2 2001 was a fairly tight Northerly with cold air sweeping down but it was atrainsitory feature by the looks of things - would have been cold over the Highlands and possibly wintry, just cold further south.

A little something of interest to look out for over the next 5-6 days within the June CET. There is a chance (maybe Saturday or Sunday look best for the chance) of a single figure CET day - the last single figure CET summer's day was in June 1991 (in fact June 2 1991 is in the CET series the 4th coldest summer day on record) - there have been approximately 70 single figure CET days in summer since 1900. I think we would need a clear and cold night - maybe averaging 6 across the CET zone and a mid 13s average for the stations in the daytime... Anyway, a statistical blip to watch for.

Shiver my timbers, a cool June 13.5

9.9

8.5 please

Quite possible it will adjust downwards - whilst minima have been low, on Hadley they have been higher than Manley - Manley had Fri night/Sat morn as sub zero and Hadley have it as 1.3 for example. It should remain at 6.9 on Hadley for yesterdays update and probably for today too and then a gradual adjustment downwards perhaps - I can't see the adjusted figure being below average from here, I anticipate and adjusted 6.4 or 6.5 to end the month. Average despite an extended mild spell and no real cold snaps of any duration or intensity. Kind of the opposite to the 'it should have been colder' months we are so used to.

I'd agree with that - it will be nowhere near 8 by the end of the weekend, it probably won't be anywhere near 8 by the end of the month either. It will be just over 7 by the end of the weekend - maybe.

Hadley has come in at 4.1 for the month So, we have just failed to secure a winter with 3 months below 4 degrees (which would have been the first since 78-79) however winter 08-09 becomes the first season where all 3 months are below the 71-00 average since that average came into being and (I think) the first season since autumn 1993 where all 3 months are below the relavant 30 year average 3rd season in a row below the 71-00 average, 2nd in a row below the 61-90 average.

4.2 to today (4.24 rounded down) 4.5 is just out of reach unless there is an upward adjustment, it would need a maxima average of about 13.9 today after minima of 5.9

4.24 rounded down to 4.2 to the 27th Last nights minima averaged 5.9 so about 8.4 average maxima required to give the CET enough of a boost to round up to 4.4 4.4 looks very much nailed as the unadjusted figure, although we may see it held at 4.3 If adjustments follow the previous months, we are looking at 4.1 or 4.2 as the final figure

Today should add about 0.18 to the CET - it was 6.0 overnight and todays maxima have ranged from about 13.5 for Rothamsted to 12.5 for Pershore and nearer 9 or 10 for Stonyhurst - thats somewhere around 9 to 9.5 That takes the total to 4.26 in running rounded up to 4.3 - the finishing figure looks like 4.3 or 4.4 depending on roundings before any adjustment Final figure - 4.1 to 4.4 I'd say

I am fast backtracking from yesterday - it now looks pretty nailed to finish 4.3 or 4.4, just about possible it could end 4.5 before any adjustments

They have certainly been doing it since I started playing the CET game - its after they quality control the sample at month end, but they don't always adjust. Usually when they do it is 0.2 or 0.3 and it is (or has been) always downwards.

Possibly, I think 4.2 is the likely end marker personally and that should adjust to 4 or thereabouts.

Today will probably be about the same - maxima between high 8s and 10.5 in the CET zone so about 8 again - mild night to come.... 71-00 average looks about the money now - looks like we will need to rely on Hadley's month end shenanigans to get us under 4 for a winter of 3 sub-4 months.

Pershore in Worcestershire (you can track temps here on the MetO website) Stonyhurst in Lancashire Rothamsted in Hertfordshire The figure is adjusted by referring these to a handful of control sites in the relevant areas as 'controls'

Actually NEB, the CET was 1.3 after the 14th, so well over 1 degree at half way. The other way of looking at it is that despite a very mild fortnight, still February is not going to be a substantially above average month, if at all.

3.1 to the 21st (3.14 rounded down) - looks like very high 3s, maybe now 4 or 4.1 pre-adjustments Maxima look consistently 10-11, so I guess its all down to whether minima can fall to 2-3 or stay high as to whether we dip under 4 for February.

It shows no such thing. Unless we assume January is 'as cold as it can get' - which given that a one day displaced period of 31 December to 30 January runs in at 2.8 - it clearly isn't. Winter is allowed to try again next year - its not like you get close and thats that. It just gets harder with time and warming. Clearly though, this winter shows it IS within reach - the key thing being it hasn't been grabbed even though its sitting right there. It might never be reached. iot might happen all 3 winter months next year, it mgit happen in March. it might not. December was 1.6 below the 71-00 mean - winter can produce an anomoly of -1.6 to the 30 year mean Thats 2.6 for Jan/Feb. That aside, iIs there really any fundamental difference between the 3 of Jan 2009 and the 2.9 it would have been if any 1 day had lost a mere 0.75 degrees? I say Jan 2009 is no more as cold as it can get than Winter 05-06 was the coldest a even larger teapot can be or 10 a barrier under which we will not pass again annually.