Snowly does it

Late, damn 10.0 please

7.5 please

5.1 please

No, but the minima from the preceeding night were 3.7 It only needs to ber 5ish per day to get to 3.0 I may be wrong but we'll see. I think it will be a 3.0 month final figure.

I don't share you guys confidence - looks to me like it is almost guaranteed to finish at 3.0 or 3.1 and therefore we are reliant on corrections to come in below 3.... Manley is not running lower this month either. I can't see where the cool weather to stop the rise is coming from.

No, the last day's data for the 28th will be the minima of 9pm to 9am 27-28 Feb and the maxima to 9pm on the 28th

Feb will be tight - today will see it rise by 0.1 or 0.2 depending on roundings as last night was 3.5 and maxes today probably 9 across the region? Difficult - no lower than 2.9, no higher than 3.1 unadjusted? But yes, sub 3 season, sub 2 11 week period, sub zero 30 day period is not a bad winter, all 3 months to be 1 degree or more below 71-00 averages, possibly after adjustments as much as 1.5 below that average. Possibly 2 sub 3 months in a row if we get the right numbers for the next 4 days.

Unadjusted I think it will be at 3 or 3.1 now as yesterday, there is little to suggest from Manley that there is much of a discrepancy this month so I am doubtful of much downward correction. I think we may just miss out on a second sub 3 month.

If it is 3.1 or lower then the winter, as a whole, will be the coldest since 78-79, the 8th coldest since 1900 and about the 60th coldest in the CET series. Needs an unlikely 2.4 to get winter into the top 50 coldest in the CET Series

And do we have a sub-zero 30 day period? Yes we do 15 Dec - 13 Jan inclusive -0.07 hence rounded to -0.1 15 Dec - 14 Jan (for 31 day period hunters) - -0.03, rounded up to 0

OK, let's look at some targets for February to achieve various milestones (I am assuming Jan at 1.4) 15.9 - Warmest winter in the CET series 9.1 - Winter above the 71-00 average (8.9 to be below) 7.8 - Winter above the 61-90 average (7.6 to be below) 6.0 - Coldest winter of the 21st century 4.5 - Coldest winter since 1985-86 4.4 - Winter below 3 degrees overall 4.1 - All three winter months below the 71-00 average 3.9 - All three winter months below 4 degrees (first time since 78-79) 3.7 - All three winter months below the 61-90 average 3.1 - Coldest winter since the winter of discontent (78-79) 2.3 - All three winter months 1.5 below the 61-90 average 2.2 - All three winter months 2 degrees below the 71-00 average 1.4 - Winter below 2 degrees overall 0.1 - Coldest winter since 62-63 -8.1 - Coldest winter in the CET series

4th coldest since the war in the CET zone.

Laura Tobin reported on the Country Tracks forecast that Dec/Jan was the coldest on record for Scotland.

Well, the update for Hadley has us at 1.7 exactly to the 30th with last night -3.3 If today's maxima are 3.5 or thereabouts it will finish unadjusted at 1.6, any higher and it will finish unadjusted at 1.7 Manley is at 1.2 to the 30th Finishing, adjusted figure 1.4?? Maybe 1.3. Or will Hadley and Manley be very different?

3.7 I fancy

GFS 06z shows a cold week with snow threat the further East and North you are, the -5 850s are around and about for much of the period with -10s approaching later in the week. However, the LP system I mentioned earlier by T138 is bombing and riding the HP ridge as the jet buckles towards the SW of the UK and this (for this run) is, I think, where milder conditions will win through

T102 and the flow is SErly trending ESErly as the LP hints at undercut, however the LP system coming off the Eastern seaboard is going to interract and I fancy this will not be in favour of cold..... let's see

Hadley at 1.7 (1.73 rounded down) to the 29th Last night was a chilly -2.1 so today will probably see a small drop - but probably not enough to get us to 1.6. Tomorrow will probably also see a slight drop so finishing figure likely to be 1.6 before adjustments. Manley is on 1.3 After adjustments perhaps 1.3 - 1.5? 60/40 in favour of the coldest month since Jan 87, definitely the first sub 2 since Feb 91 Coldest Dec/Jan since 81/82, I believe the fourth coldest since 62/63 (after that 76/77, 78-79 and 81-82) but am about to check.... Edit - third coldest Dec/Jan since 62/63 if Jan comes in below 1.7, behind 78/79 and 81/82 Another edit - if 1.5 this will be the 8th coldest Dec/Jan since 1900 - behind the above 2, 62/63 and the 4 'wartime' colds of 1916/1917, 1939/40, 1940/41 and 1944/45

Hadley is a rounded down 1.5 (1.52) last night was 2.4 and todays maxima ca 7 so we will be at 1.6 or possibly a rounded up 1.7 tomorrow. Tonight looks average as does tomorrow and may be enough for a further 0.1 increase depending where roundings end so perhaps 1.8 with Saturday and Sunday looking like drops or static. I can't see the adjusted number being much below 1.5, and I can't see it ending above 1.8 now Certainly the coldest month since Feb 91, possibly since Jan 87 but I think Feb 91 will just eclipse it

Slight delay, similar result, one day of mild weather twixt cold spells. Signals into February remain.

I notice the HP starts to hook East at it's NE extremity as it declines,and has done for the past couple of runs. The 12z has a little surface high developing over Scandi also - could there be any longer term interest in a Northerly-Easterly migration? Edit - meaning as a trend to watch for, not on this run

Subtle differences on the 18z, rather better ridging and a better and colder N based flow with a better pattern around GL. Will sink I think, but a better 2-3 day effort than before.

Certainly an Atlantic ridge to Greenland, unreinforced by an Arctic High building has, on rcent evidence, given no more than a 2-3 day toppler. Such a thing will never be a stable long-term block. I don't see a signal for westerlies myself. Perhaps HP sinking over the UK though. Having said that, GFS has played in recent runs with the ridge to GL, sink and ridge back to GL scenario as well.

1.1 (1.12) to the 22nd 3.0 requires 7.5 per day from here 2.0 requires 4 per day 1.0 requires about 0.8 per day 1.8 to 2.2 now looks the unadjusted landing zone to me

Conversely to the ECM ensembles, the GFS blowtorch is one of the mildest members on offer for that suite. 2+2 = uncetainty reigns supreme. No clear signal.